E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 8, 2011 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)
Content:
Introduction
1. Basic trends of August
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. A dialogue as a continuation of the war by another means
3.2. The decreasing coefficient
3.3. He is squeaking because he wants it
4. Economics
4.1. The cheerless schedule
4.2. Rubles are also rubles in Russia
4.3. The cognac hangover
5. Finances
5.1. Who spoils paper?
6. Good news
7. Our forecast for September
Introduction:
Dear readers!
To promise does not mean to marry. This everyday verity is also true of the society. To promise to keep “people’s living standard whatever the cost” and to assure inadmissibility of “a drop in the citizens’ real income” does not mean that impoverishment of the population will be really stopped. Another list of social payments was read out by A. Lukashenko on August 30 at the briefing session on the questions of socio-economic development. Belstat, too, announces its “lists” on a regular basis, and unfortunately they register a further decrease in the real income of the Belarusians. That is why our forecast concerning the impossibility of retaining the population’s income on the level of 2010 does not lose its topicality.
It has already become a tradition that approach of the first day of a new month is accompanied in Belarus with a “planned” advance in prices. On August 1 pipeline rates and heat supply rates were raised by 10%, and condensed gas rates at the filling stations – by 23%. On September 1 utility services, some articles of food and trade including spirits and cigarettes once again rose in price. Thus the numerous prognoses concerning a “difficult autumn” begin to come true.
As it had been predicted, the briefing session on the questions of socio-economic development turned out to be the central event of August. Contrary to our expectations, its emotional part connected with the search of enemies and dressing down of negligent officials was minimized. As it is known, one shouldn’t swap horses in midstream; however, the Belarusian situation is also complicated by the fact that there is virtually no worthy reserve in the head’s of state personnel “stable”. That is why the chief stableman has to suppress his emotions.
Nevertheless, it was announced that some critical decisions had been made at the briefing session. Taking into account the fact that the session took place on the last day but one of the month, August proved to be completely lost from the point of view of reversing the situation on the foreign exchange market. Just as we had supposed, economy continued to function under the conditions of a strict administrative control.
IISEPS executive board