E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 11, 2012 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)
Content:
Introduction
1. Basic trends of November
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Minus sulphur, plus some dietary supplements
3.2. The Customs Union, Common Free Market Zone and 12 protocols of intent
4. Economics
4.1. “Green sprouts” against a “fiscal cliff”
4.2. A spurt from the 118th to the 112th place
4.3. Production of large profit goods
5. Finances
5.1. “Devaluation is not noticeable and is not being calculated”
6. Our forecast for December
7. From the IISEPS desktop
Introduction:
Dear readers!
Just as we had supposed, in November deciding the issue of oil delivery to Belarus was developing within the framework of “Russian interpretation”. The key negotiations of the government delegation headed by the first Vice Prime Minister V. Semashko were completed in Moscow without result. The oil balance for 2013 was not signed. Each party held by its opinion: Russia offered to deliver 18.5 million tons of oil with return of 2.1 million tons of Belarusian petrochemical products. Belarus is asking for 23 million tons of oil. Such arithmetic is able to shake the “oil state” status of Belarus; besides it will put an end to the GDP growth plans for the coming year.
The plans are in jeopardy even in case of a favorable settlement of the oil problem. In October industrial output decreased by 26% in comparison with the beginning of the year, and the contribution of industry to the GDP increase makes up about 50% in Belarus.
The issue of returning oil duties on petrochemical products export in connection with the “solvent” business was not decided in November. Our forecast regarding intensification of pressure on the part of Russia concerning their return did not come true; hence the question about recognizing of self-appointed republics of the Caucasus by Belarus proved to be irrelevant either (we had not doubted their non-recognition). However, it is not ruled out that the problem with signing the oil balance is an echo of the “solvent” business, and that is why our conclusion about the absence of pressure on the part of Russia was not fully legitimate. Let us remind the reader that Energy Minister of Russia A. Novak estimated budget losses due to the Belarusian solvents export at about $ 2.5 billion.
The dollar rate did not virtually change in November. Devaluation in Belarus “is not noticeable and is not being calculated”, as “it is not on the horizon”. Such is the opinion of N. Ermakova, Chairperson of the Executive Board of the National Bank, which she voiced on November 21. Preparing the November forecast we subscribed to the same opinion and counted upon “prolongation of October situation”. However, time horizons can be different – short-term, medium- and long-term. There is no doubt that the dollar rate will not exceed the planned annual limit of 8800-9000 thousand rubles, though we do not find ground for optimism as far as the medium-term prospects (within the bounds of the first six months of 2013) are concerned.
IISEPS executive board