E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 2, 2012 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)
Content:
Introduction
1. Basic trends of February
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Money as the main measure of our activity
3.2. Who has saved Belarusian stability?
3.3. About the KGB and efficiency of the milk-processing holdings
4. Economics
4.1. Between “horror without an end” and a “horrible end”
4.2. How much will the first vote victory come to?
4.3. The economy of simple reproduction
5. Finances
5.1. Shatalov’s problem
6. Our forecast for March
7. From the IISEPS desktop
Introduction:
Dear readers!
The International Monetary Fund review mission got down to work in Minsk on February 22. As of the time of preparing the given issue of the “Infofocus” no information about the work of the mission was received either from its employees or from the core Belarusian officials. However, one should not hope that the fund will consent to refinance the loan the settlement of which is to begin in the year of 2012. The statement of the IMF made on February 14 that it refuses to direct to Minsk its new representative after completion of N. Kolyadina’s term of appointment at the beginning of April served as an unambiguous warning. By the end of February Minsk had flown off the handle, as the saying goes, having made a row that was completed by the departure of European countries’ ambassadors. Although the IMF is a financial, not a political body, it does not mean that countries-the-founders of the fund are beyond politics.
As for the “mainly positive signals” that N. Kolyadina talked about in January, then it should be admitted that the National Bank had on the whole coped with their sending. In February N. Ermakova’s team managed to restrain the attacks of industry lobbyists on the financial “reserves of the nation”. Although it is rumored that the Bank of development created at the instance of external creditors can act as a lock for money emission, it is still nothing more than just a piece of information. On the whole, inflation has been keeping within 2% for two months already which is evidence of the fact that the National bank manages to adhere to the declared course so far.
Nevertheless, the third installment of the loan of the EurAsES Anti-crisis fund did not arrive in the country on the date defined by the schedule (February 28), just as we had supposed. The time when Belarus could count on Russia’s financial support exclusively for the integration rhetoric has sunk into oblivion. Today one has to write letters of intent and meticulously specify in them the list of assumed commitments and then report back to the creditors case-by-case. In Belarus they are not used to collaboration in such a mode, hence come the problems with receiving another installment.
Heated party discussions on the problem of participation in/boycotting the parliamentary elections had imperceptibly spent themselves by the second half of February. It was partly favored by switching attention over to international scandals generated by the authorities. Let us mention that a compromise position providing for active participation at the stage of campaigning with subsequent withdrawal of opposition candidates has taken shape between the extreme ones.
IISEPS executive board