E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 12, 2014 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)


1. Basic trends of December
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Marching archaisation
3.2. Pros and cons of settlement payments in foreign currency
4. Economics
4.1. Opposite courses
4.2. Russia between Crimea euphoria and its consequences
4.3. Where did pragmatists get us?
5. Finances
5.1. “All within the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state”
6. Our forecast for January
7. From the IISEPS desktop


Dear readers!
Despite our forecast Belarusian-Russian conflict concerning the quality of Belarusian meat factories’ production gradually fell on the informational wayside. But the reason for this might-have-been forecast shouldn’t be seen in a fit of peacefulness of conflicting sides, which decided to bury the hatchet on the eve of Christmas and New Year celebrations.
Media scene is not infinite. It is limited not by technical but by psychological frames. Number of main news is limited by the ability of people to process and retain information. After Black Tuesday in Russia and following decision of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus to introduce a 30% tax on currency purchase, presence or absence of African swine fever in Belarusian sausages stopped worrying both fraternal peoples. The quality issue of Belarusian production however didn’t disappear because of currency swings. This is a relay baton that year 2015 took from its predecessor.
By the end of the year turbulence of economic, social and political processes reached an extremely high level. Principles of forecasting, elaborated during the years of relative stability, turn out to be inefficient under new circumstances. In the last days of November we’ve supposed that National Bank will stop short of making a New Year “gift” to Belarusians and will abstain from ruble devaluation. But main financial regulator fell short of our expectations. The reason for their proactive work is evident: it lies in Black Tuesday, already mentioned before.
On the 15th of December A. Lukashenko signed Decree № 5 “On Strengthening the Requirements for Managers and Employees of Organizations”. Whether a mountain had brought forth a mouse or a bigger animal is hard to judge as for today. It was a difficult birth, but we believed that this long-suffering document will be signed before the end of the year. So it happened. As for the decree which had to eradicate parasitic attitude, it wasn’t ready by the 1st of January.
If we take into account decree № 5, we won’t begrudge those who are responsible for the failure of the document…
IISEPS executive board

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