E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 9, 2014 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)
Content:
Introduction
1. Basic trends of September
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. The first sentence of the first article of the principal law
3.2. Gangrene of noncompetitiveness
4. Economics
4.1. Fracking and prospects of Belarusian economic model
4.2. September took up the baton of records from August
4.3. Basic parameters of Belarusian model are constant
5. Finances
5.1. Budget surplus provided by expense control
6. Our forecast for October
7. From the IISEPS desktop
Introduction:
Dear readers!
As we’ve supposed it in our forecast for September Russian TV-channel’s interpretation of events in and around Ukraine are still a force that doesn’t let public opinion in Belarus elastically (as would economists say) respond to negative economic signals. As a result, despite a decrease of salaries in August relatively to July, electoral rating of A. Lukashenko jumped from 39.8% up to 45.2% over three months (+5.4 points)! An exclamation is more than suitable here.
Fairness requires us to note that in August pensions grew by 7%. That is why twice as much of seniors over 60 years old noted an improvement of their material position: 18.9% in September vs. 9.3% in June. And, as it is known, pensioners make up the kernel of electoral supporters of the head of state.
The long-suffering decree “On Ramping up Efforts to Combat Mismanagement and on Toughening Requirements to Executives of All Levels” still wasn’t signed in September, despite our suppositions and numerous “final warnings” from A. Lukashenko. Let us remind you that for the first time information on preparation of this decree appeared in the President’s Message in April. Five months have passed, but the document, which was “already lying on the table” of the head of state still didn’t enter the registry of legislative acts. Does this mean that we are witnessing a precedent which could be depicted by Tabaqui the jackal’s exclamation “Akela has missed!”? Let’s not hurry with this conclusion, but staying 20 years running on the highest state position is a hard ordeal for any politician.
It is still too early to make even a subtotal of consequences of the decree “On the Application of Certain Special Economic Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation” signed by President V. Putin. The pros for Belarusian food manufacturers are evident, as for the cons, it’s not so easy to identify them. Russian economy is a footstep away from recession, ruble falls into a nosedive. All this negatively influences export of most Belarusian industrial goods. There are also some problems in bank system, where Russian capital occupies a significant place.
Fairness requires us to note that in August pensions grew by 7%. That is why twice as much of seniors over 60 years old noted an improvement of their material position: 18.9% in September vs. 9.3% in June. And, as it is known, pensioners make up the kernel of electoral supporters of the head of state.
The long-suffering decree “On Ramping up Efforts to Combat Mismanagement and on Toughening Requirements to Executives of All Levels” still wasn’t signed in September, despite our suppositions and numerous “final warnings” from A. Lukashenko. Let us remind you that for the first time information on preparation of this decree appeared in the President’s Message in April. Five months have passed, but the document, which was “already lying on the table” of the head of state still didn’t enter the registry of legislative acts. Does this mean that we are witnessing a precedent which could be depicted by Tabaqui the jackal’s exclamation “Akela has missed!”? Let’s not hurry with this conclusion, but staying 20 years running on the highest state position is a hard ordeal for any politician.
It is still too early to make even a subtotal of consequences of the decree “On the Application of Certain Special Economic Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation” signed by President V. Putin. The pros for Belarusian food manufacturers are evident, as for the cons, it’s not so easy to identify them. Russian economy is a footstep away from recession, ruble falls into a nosedive. All this negatively influences export of most Belarusian industrial goods. There are also some problems in bank system, where Russian capital occupies a significant place.
IISEPS executive board