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BULLETINS INFOFOCUS № 6

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 6, 2014 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)

Content:

Introduction
1. Basic trends of June
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Between Mauritius and Botswana
3.2. Intellectual bullying from Professor V. Orgish
4. Economics
4.1. Big consequences of small economy
4.2. Structural factors prevent growth acceleration
4.3. Discipline is the most important thing
5. Finances
5.1. High inflation as the trademark of Belarusian model
6. Our forecast for Julye
7. From the IISEPS desktop

Introduction:

Dear readers!
Opposition of economical (growing prices) and political (aggressive Russian propaganda) factors continued during the second quarter just as we have supposed it. Despite the decrease of the financial standing index, A. Lukashenko’s electoral rating didn’t change, while his trust rating even gained 3.7 points (45.9% in Match vs. 49.6% in June). In the current context of complex economic conditions this dynamics of ratings should be considered as a success for the head of state. We have supposed and we continue to do so that the Hockey Championship didn’t influence it, especially since during survey conducting (the first half of June) the hockey topic had almost completely disappeared from the media scene.
We hoped that in June there will be an attempt to solve some “fateful for Belarus economical questions”, which was postponed because of the championship. Our hopes were regularly nurtured by A. Lukashenko. It could be expected that in the near future we will witness an opposition of reformists and conservatives and that in the result of it a compromise will be found. Reality exceeded all our expectations: none of the “fateful solutions” planned for April and May wasn’t taken. Something was put off until fall, something will probably be forgotten.
It seems that power today is in the position of a centipede that tried to remember which leg she should move after which. As a result, it was paralyzed. For Belarusian power the reasons for the paralysis are the events in Ukraine, in particular, Russia’s reaction to Ukrainian events. The result is that the script of a special op called “Presidential elections-2015”, which was already written by the end of summer in 2013, lost its relevance. And it’s hard to put together a new script, because the progression of events in the only donor of Belarusian socio-economic model is too quick.
IISEPS executive board

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