E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 6, 2015 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian)
Content:
Introduction
1. Basic trends of June
2. Chronicle of key events
3. Politics
3.1. Not any election can overthrow authoritarian regime
3.2. Negative trend won’t disappear by itself
4. Economics
4.1. Chinese “bubble” and Greek default
4.2. Crisis has reached the real sector
4.3. Belarusian hopes amid Russian deindustrialization
5. Finances
5.1. Awaiting for IMF delegation
6. Our forecast for July
7. From the IISEPS desktop
Introduction:
Dear readers!
Our forecast on the dynamics of social indices turned out to be completely true. It’s in human nature to adapt psychically to any stable situation. Otherwise humans wouldn’t have survived. People couldn’t fail to notice the macroeconomic stabilization, reached at the price of severe measures of monetary, credit, and budgetary policy. As a result the insignificant decrease of A. Lukashenko’s rating, registered in March, gave way to the also insignificant increase. The financial standing index increased as well, after its crush in March, caused by memories of December devaluation.
Thus one can state that Anomaly-2014, formed under the influence of Russian TV-propaganda, is still of topicality today, in the end of the second quarter of the year. Today we can assert that it’s very likely that it will last up to the polling day of presidential elections.
In June, as it was expected, the head of state’s aspiration for preservation of jobs completely turned into an idee fixe. In the forthcoming presidential campaign it will probably substitute the previous idea of people’s incomes growth, which was popular in 2001, 2006 and 2010. In our forecast for June we didn’t exclude probability of A. Lukashenko’s impulsive decisions. We were off two days in our estimations. On the 2nd of July, speaking at the grand meeting, dedicated to the Independence Day, the head of state declared, that government members and enterprise leaders will be regarded as “saboteurs” in case they won’t achieve planned indices with the financial support promised to them.
A special delegation of IMF is expected to visit Belarus in July. The Finance Minister V. Amarin made this known. Belarusian powers expect to receive a credit of $ 3.5 billion not before long. Naturally not for the good looks, but for the program of economic reforms. However, all our attempts to find A. Lukashenko in the list of participant of discussions of reforms have failed. Thus, as we’ve supposed it, real reforms and real economy are like the wheat and the chaff in the well-known proverb. In short-term outlook notable changes should not be expected (especially before elections).
IISEPS executive board