IISEPS News – ISSN 1822-5535 (Printing), ISSN 1822-5543 (ONLINE),
N 2 (76), 2015




Crisis for some, certain difficulties for otehrs
Electoral play of numbers
The authority keeps itself to itself more and more
“These people care only about their own financial well-being”
Who considers Belarusian state as their own?
The state as an obstacle to income growth
Political efficiency and “coefficient of split”
Europe is good, but not for us
Unforgotten war
Paradoxes of the “russian world” in Belarus

Some results of the opinion poll conducted in June-2015


According to wartime laws
Mainly bad and very bad
War should be stopped at any price
Islamic patriotism
Cautious Germans and resolute Americans


Dear readers!

In the latest issue of the analytical bulletin “IISEPS News” we offer to your attention materials reflecting the most interesting results of the Institute researches in the second quarter of 2015.
Our researches demonstrate that in general financial well-being of Belarusians remains unstable, although certain stabilization can be observed. The number of those, whose financial standing became worse, diminished. Average per capita income (including salaries, pensions, social benefits and other incomes) increased from $ 211 in March up to $ 240 in June, although it still didn’t achieve the December level of $ 285. At the same time 72% of respondents think that Belarusian economy is in crisis. Priorities of economic fears are shifting as well: although the first place is as usually occupied by the price hike, people are more and more worried about unemployment, production decline and impoverishment. Anxiety for the future is not passing away: today the number of those, who expect that socio-economic situation in the country, will improve in the near future, significantly decreased, while the number of those, who expect a worsening of the situation, accordingly increased. For example, despite the assurances of the power, over 80% of Belarusians fear another devaluation of Belarusian ruble in the next few months.
Belarusians’ attitude to the state power remains quite skeptical in general. Thus, indices of trust to almost all of state institutions remain negative. Evaluating people in power, over 39% of respondents said that “these people care only about their own financial well-being and career” and only less than 13% of respondents think that “this is a good team of politicians and they lead the country in right direction”. Majority of respondents think that people in Belarus live worse than people in the Western countries, and the main reason for this is “our people can work as hard as in Western countries; bad governmental administration is to blame”. This attitude towards the state power is reflected upon the attitude towards the head of state. For example, according to 40.1% of respondents, the fact, that almost all of the state power is concentrated in the hands of A. Lukashenko, is favorable for Belarus, while 47.8% of respondents think that there is nothing good in this fact. According to respondents, the President mostly relies on militaries, Ministry of Internal Affairs, KGB, presidential “hierarchy line” and state officials.
Belarusians’ attitude to the state power and its opponents deserves special attention in view of forthcoming presidential election in October. Millions of Belarusians expect changes. Some people connect these changes to A. Lukashenko, others don’t. The most realistic and desired variant of changes is election according to half of re-spondents. A quarter of respondents would prefer a republican referendum, and only less than 10% – street protests. Today more than 71% of respondents express their readiness to vote in election. At the same time, despite the fact that according to the Constitution of Republic of Belarus the sole bearer of sovereignty and the source of power are the people, only 44.5% answered this question correctly, while 48.7% think that President is. According to 54.5% of respondents A. Lukashenko knows where he leads Belarus, 35.7% of respondents chose the opposite answer. Trust rating of the President remains on the same level. Slight decrease of his electoral rating, which was observed since September 2014, changed into an increase: in March 34.2% were ready to vote for him, today this share amounts to 38.6%. Rating of M. Statkevich today amounts to 5%, V. Neklyaev – 4.7%, A. Lebedko – 4.2%, S. Gaydukevich – 3.9%, S. Klayakin – 3.1%. Other potential candidates’ ratings don’t exceed the level of statistical error.
In foreign-policy orientations of Belarusians isolationist moods still prevail. Comparatively to March, the share of “Euro-Belarusians” slightly decreased, while the share of “Belo-Russians” slightly increased. Evaluating work of national leaders, Belarusians put the President of Russia V. Putin on the first place, the President of Kazakhstan N. Nazarbaev – on the second, and the President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping – on the third. The idea of “Russian world”, which V. Putin used to base the annexation of Crimea on, is evaluated positively by almost 39% of Belarusians, 39.4% are indifferent and 15.2% are negative. Ukrainian-Russian crisis remains one of the most important factors influencing these changes in foreign-policy orientations of Belarusians. It should be noted that sympathies of the majority of Belarusians are still with Russia. Over 60% of respondents evaluate the annexation of Crimea by Russia as “a restitution of Russian lands and reestablishment of historical justice”, almost a half of respondents support the independence of Novorossiya. Majority continue to positively evaluate A. Lukashenko’s policy towards the crisis in Ukraine.
As usual, those readers who are more interested in our figures than in our assessments can analyze the research results on their own. The results are presented as a plain count up according to the main socio-demographic characteristics.
In our “Open Forum” rubric we continue to present the most interesting results of the latest surveys of our colleagues from neighboring countries.
As usual, your feedback and comments are welcome!