Polling results reveal that, as usual, traditional strengthening of integration moods within the Belarusian electorate observed in spring has given place to a regular autumn crisis. As it can be seen from Table 1, the number of those standing for Russia-Belarus unification into a single state has dropped down by almost 28% (from 25.6% to 18.5%) for the past six months while the number of those supporting all integration variants that ensure independence of both countries has increased by nine points (from 67.3% to 76.3%).
Table 1. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question “Which variant of Russia-Belarus integration do you personally prefer?”, %
Variant of answer |
12’02
|
03’03
|
09’03
|
Belarus and Russia should form a union of independent states with close political and economic relations |
51.7
|
48.0
|
55.7
|
Relations between Russia and Belarus should remain as between the other CIS member-states |
19.7
|
19.3
|
20.6
|
Belarus and Russia should become a single state with a single president, government, army, flag, currency, etc. |
21.2
|
25.6
|
18.5
|
Table 2. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question “in your opinion, does Belarus or Russia has achieved greater progress in building a democratic state and a civil society?”
* This variant wasn’t offered
Table 3. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question “Do you think people live better in Belarus or Russia today?”
* This variant wasn’t offered
Table 4. Dynamics of preferences between A. Lukashenko’s supporters and opponents as regards Russia-Belarus integration patterns, %
Variant of answer |
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
||
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
|
Belarus and Russia should form a union of independent states with close political and economic relations |
44.5
|
55.9
|
52.1
|
51.7
|
Relations between Russia and Belarus should remain as between the other CIS member-states |
13.3
|
17.6
|
25.9
|
26.9
|
Belarus and Russia should become a single state with a single president, government, army, flag, currency, etc. |
38.3
|
23.3
|
15.3
|
16.4
|
Table 5. Dynamics of answer distribution between A. Lukashenko’s supporters and opponents to the question “If there is a referendum on adopting Union State’s Constitution, how will you vote?”, %
Variant of answer |
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
||
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
|
I will vote for |
66.4
|
57.3
|
40.6
|
41.8
|
I will vote against |
9.0
|
24.2
|
29.4
|
28.4
|
I won’t take part in the voting |
8.0
|
4.4
|
13.0
|
13.4
|
Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question “Do you think the Russian ruble should be introduced in Belarus?”, %
Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
||
Yes |
44.2
|
41.3
|
42.8
|
No |
34.4
|
35.4
|
41.9
|
Table 7. Distribution of answers to the question “If you stand for introduction of the Russian ruble, then why do you?”, % (open question)
Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
||
This means closer integration with Russia |
13.4
|
15.3
|
8.9
|
Economic state of Belarus will improve |
12.9
|
7.1
|
15.3
|
Russian ruble is a firm and stable currency |
8.8
|
4.2
|
12.0
|
Rise in prices will be halted |
6.2
|
1.5
|
4.3
|
Financial state of population will improve |
5.3
|
9.4
|
4.3
|
Going to Russia will be easier |
1.9
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
Other |
3.0
|
3.7
|
2.1
|
Table 8. Distribution of answers to the question “If you stand against the introduction of the Russian ruble, then why do you?”, %(open question)
Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
||
This means loss of independence for the country |
10.8
|
7.5
|
15.5
|
A country should have its own currency |
9.4
|
7.6
|
11.2
|
Our economics is not ready to this |
3.6
|
3.0
|
5.4
|
Financial state of population will deteriorate |
3.4
|
5.3
|
2.9
|
Russia doesn’t give guarantees, it will cheat us |
1.4
|
2.1
|
1.1
|
Prices will grow up |
1.0
|
0.6
|
1.5
|
Russian ruble is a soft and non-stable currency |
0.5
|
0.8
|
0.5
|
Other |
3.4
|
1.5
|
4.0
|