The polling results show that the population is as usual first of all concerned about the economic problems and low standard of living (See Table 1). As one can see, over three quarters of all answers (78.8%) fell to those two groups.
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “Which top-priority problems of the country do you think should be solved in the first place?” (open question, more than one answer is possible)
* Reduced to 100%
At the same time respondents claim that the economic situation in the country as compared to the beginning of winter a year ago has slightly improved. Thus, the number of those who witnessed improvement in their financial state has grown up by 18.3% and the number of those saying it has aggravated has decreased by almost one third – from 44.1% to 30.6% (See Table 2). Positive dynamics can be seen even in the answers of A. Lukashenko’s convinced opponents who cannot be suspected of positive attitude towards the authorities or the social and economic policy the authorities carry.
Table 2. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question “How has your financial state changed over the past three months?”, %
| Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
||||
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
|||||
|
12’02*
|
09’03
|
12’02*
|
09’03
|
12’02*
|
09’03
|
|
| Aggravated |
44.1
|
30.6
|
22.3
|
17.1
|
55.6
|
39.4
|
| Hasn’t changed |
44.3
|
56.8
|
57.4
|
64.3
|
34.1
|
50.4
|
| Improved |
9.8
|
11.6
|
18.2
|
17.3
|
9.0
|
9.6
|
* For the past year
Also, the situation has much enhanced as regards the backpays. 57% of respondents faced this problem at least once a year a year ago. At present their number is 45.8% that is by 11.2 points less. And these are again convinced opponents of the president who prove the fact (See Table 3).
Table 3.Dynamics of answer distribution to the question “How many times have you been backpayed over the past 12 months?”, %
| Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
||||
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
|||||
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
|
| Never |
42.3
|
53.3
|
56.7
|
66.3
|
37.4
|
49.4
|
| Once and over |
57.0
|
45.8
|
43.3
|
33.7
|
61.8
|
49.7
|
However, judging from respondents’ estimations of the objective indicators like per capita income in a family, there are no grounds for optimism. Thus, the number of those whose per capita incomes haven’t exceeded the minimum living ($ 83 for today) has even slightly increased (See Table 4). It is noteworthy that estimation of per capita incomes has fallen down with both A. Lukashenko’s supporters and opponents. But the average income of president’s supporters is by far lower than that of A. Lukashenko’s opponents: among the first every 19 people out of 20 fell into that category while among the second – every 15 people out of 20.
Table 4. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question about the average per capita income in the family for the past month, %
| Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
||||
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
|||||
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
|
| Under the minimum living |
81.1
|
81.4
|
90.8
|
92.0
|
75.0
|
76.0
|
| Over the minimum living |
18.4
|
18.3
|
8.9
|
8.0
|
24.6
|
23.7
|
Yet, despite falling estimation of income level, respondents have turned more optimistic for the past year about social and economic perspectives of Belarus (See Table 5). Thus, the number of those who are pessimistic about their perspectives has dropped down by more than one third (from 43.9% to 28.5%) and the number of optimists has jumped by 44% (from 13.6% to 19.6%). And although there are still 1.5-fold more pessimists than optimists, the tendency is quite obvious. This growth of optimistic estimates can be explained to a greater extent by increase in pensions this August as pensioners make almost 30% of adult population (and of respondents, respectively) in Belarus.
Table 5. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question “How will the social and economic situation in Belarus change in the years to come?”, %
| Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
||||
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
|||||
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
|
| Will aggravate |
43.9
|
28.5
|
10.0
|
8.4
|
65.0
|
47.9
|
| Won’t change |
29.1
|
38.4
|
33.8
|
29.6
|
24.3
|
39.8
|
| Will improve |
13.6
|
19.6
|
41.9
|
44.4
|
2.7
|
5.3
|
Positive dynamics of estimating social and economic perspectives, as Table 5 shows, is in no way connected with attitude towards A. Lukashenko: both his supporters and opponents turn more optimistic. But in the first group optimists dominate (they are 5.2-fold more than pessimists) and in the second group, on the contrary, dominate pessimists (they are 9-fold more than optimists). As the result, outright pessimism prevails nowadays in the Belarusian public opinion as regards social and economic perspectives of the country.
Indirectly, data in Table 6 accounts for this pessimism. As one can see, only every fifth respondent doesn’t face problems related to medical care. If suggest that every fifth adult is under 30, i.e. doesn’t usually have problems with the health and, consequently, any connection to healthcare, it turns obvious that all other citizens not just have problems but are dissatisfied with how those problems are solved.
Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question “It has been several years already since the healthcare reform is carried in Belarus. Many medical services has become paid. What are the problems you face in this regard?”, % (more than one answer is possible)
| Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
|
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
||
| Medical services and medicines are harder to obtain because of high prices |
63.1
|
68.5
|
59.9
|
| The quality of medical services has aggravated |
30.3
|
26.1
|
30.4
|
| It is harder now to get to the nearest outpatient department or hospital |
5.7
|
10.1
|
3.0
|
| So far hasn’t faced any problems |
20.2
|
18.6
|
20.9
|
How does the state help its citizens? What does it do to really improve living of a ‘regular man’ who is given, as the official mass media claim, every support of the governing bodies? We would like to give an example. As it is known, there’s a powerful system of control and punishment in the country that actively interferes into all spheres of social life. It has been nine years since all its efforts are focused – under the personal direction of the president – on exposing corruption and bribery during entrance examinations in higher educational establishments of the country. Several teaches have been even arrested. Now, what does it changed? Table 7 clearly shows what people think about this.
Table 7. Distribution of answers to the question “Entrance examinations to higher educational establishments that were specially controlled by the state bodies (state control, KGB, etc.) are over. Do you think those special measures have interfered in accessibility of the higher education in Belarus?”, %
| Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
|
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
||
| Higher education has turned easier to access |
20.8
|
37.6
|
13.7
|
| Nothing has changed |
49.4
|
29.5
|
60.0
|
| Higher education has turned harder to access |
14.6
|
7.4
|
17.9
|
Quite expectedly, only every fifth says those measures have made higher education more open while two thirds are convinced nothing has changed or even all has worsened as compared to ‘pre-examination’ times. And the number of those who believe into widely propagated success of such control is equal to those who don’t believe in it even among the convinced supporters of the president. ‘Using a steam-hammer to crack nuts’ – this is the right name for the campaign: much ado with no result.
All these social and economic causes of public pessimism are, in our opinion, only one of the reasons nowadays accounting for a high emigration potential in the country. As it is seen from Table 8, about 40% of adult population wish to emigrate, although there are no religious, ethnic or other conflicts in the country. Quite predictably, president’s opponents are more likely to change the country of residence as they also have other reasons but social and economic.
Table 8. Dynamics of willingness to move to another country for permanent residence, %
| Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
||||
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
|||||
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
|
| Wouldn’t like to move anywhere |
53.3
|
57.1
|
89.0
|
87.1
|
33.0
|
36.1
|
| Would like to move (named a country) |
41.1
|
38.8
|
8.5
|
10.1
|
62.0
|
59.3
|
Thus, people’s willingness to take up entrepreneurship has considerably (over 10%) faded over the past year (See Table 9). And not just among the presidential electorate that anyway never wanted to do this but first of all among his convinced opponents. It’s absolutely transparent that the reason is the policy of the authorities in the sphere of private business. And this is undoubtedly another reason why people want to move from the country.
Table 9. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question about participation in private enterprise, %
| Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
||||
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
|||||
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
12’02
|
09’03
|
|
| Participated and would like to further participate |
47.3
|
42.5
|
17.5
|
14.3
|
66.9
|
59.0
|
| Has never participated and is not going to |
51.5
|
57.2
|
81.2
|
85.7
|
31.3
|
40.7
|
Table 10. Estimation by respondents of socio-political situation in the country, %
| Variant of answer |
All population
|
Among them:
|
|
|
A. Lukashenko’s supporters
|
A. Lukashenko’s opponents
|
||
| Satisfaction with the development of democracy in the country | |||
| Dissatisfied |
56.2
|
13.8
|
86.4
|
| Satisfied |
33.3
|
72.1
|
8.7
|
| Are human rights observed in Belarus? | |||
| No |
55.1
|
11.8
|
87.6
|
| Yes |
38.8
|
78.5
|
11.0
|
| Estimation of people’s readiness to express their political views | |||
| Are afraid |
75.7
|
50.5
|
90.9
|
| Are not afraid |
18.4
|
41.9
|
6.2
|
Yet, a major cause for emigration has, in our opinion, political roots. As it goes from Table 10, most respondents give very unpleasant estimate to social and political situation in the country. Thus, over 56% of adults are discontented with democracy development in the country, over 55% are convinced human rights are not observed in Belarus and almost 76% claim the people are so deeply intimidated that are afraid to openly express their political views, i.e. to enjoy their constitutional right. In this regard estimates of A. Lukashenko’s supporters and opponents are radically opposite. Human rights and political freedoms are, clearly, an empty phrase for the first while their absence is a serious reason for emigrating for the second. Also, we would like to remind that A. Lukashenko’s convinced opponents are much younger, more educated and much more active than the presidential electorate. Therefore, perspectives for our country are absolutely plain.