ENDURING ECHO OF REFERENDUM

While the last year referendum that has dramatically changed both the political layout and the political prospects of Belarus is over long ago, they still dispute in Belarus if referendum results reflected true state of things, if the Belarusian society has become more consolidated and more confident in its future and, finally, how all this will influence future development of this country.

To remind, in accordance with the official voting results announced by the Central Election Commission, about 80% of voters voted for A. Lukashenko to allow him run for presidency during the next presidential election and the candidates supporting A. Lukashenko all won the parliamentary election. The president called those results the “crushing results” and amended the Constitution. However, in accordance with the opinion poll conducted by the Gallup Institute / Baltic Surveys, only 48.4% of registered voters voted for Constitution amendment and the new Parliament might have comprised up to 30% of the candidates not supported by the authorities. If this data is true, over 2 million voted appeared re-distributed. This means the Constitution shouldn’t have been amended and A. Lukashenko cannot run for presidency anew.

Six months over, the political storms have gone down and most voters have turned to their daily routine. Gas comes to Belarus at the same prices as before, devastating tsunamis and earthquakes passed us by and the long-awaited spring has finally come. In such a stable and comforting environment, it is the high time to check if this is the Central Election Commission or Gallup’s Institute that was right? Has the referendum turned a historic event for the Belarusians or it still stirs up their minds and feelings? (See Table 1).

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “How did you vote at the referendum and at the election to the House of Representatives held on October 17, 2004?”, %

Thus, voting results of the referendum received in both November and March opinion polls are almost the same as the results of Gallup’s Institute. As well close are the results of the parliamentary election (according to the findings of both the IISEPS and the Gallup’s Institute, absolute majority of those respondents who refused to give an answer voted against Constitution amendment and for alternative candidates). Despite “calm and stable situation”, the Belarusians do remember how they voted in October. This means that the referendum still remains a crucial event for them.

Do the Belarusian citizens know that the official and unofficial results of the referendum differ that dramatically? (See Table 2).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “Following referendum, the Central Election Commission announced that 80% of voters on the lists supported A. Lukashenko. According to the opinion poll conducted by the Gallup’s Institute / Baltic Surveys, A. Lukashenko was supported by 48.4% of voters only. Do you know (heard) about this?”, %

* Results of the opinion poll among the elite (those interviewed are over 60 policymakers, mass media leaders, scientists and businessmen almost equally representing public and private sectors)

Although the findings of Gallup’s Institute weren’t widely publicized in the state-run mass media, one third of respondents got introduced to those results. Did that awareness influence the attitude of the Belarusians to the referendum results? (See Table 3).

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question “In your opinion, which data is closer to truth?”, %

* Results of the opinion poll among the elite

An unbiased reader will be appalled with the data of this table. It appears that less than a half of respondents and just a few elite representatives believe the official data! Table 4 shows how awareness of unofficial data influence citizens’ attitude to the referendum results.

Table 4. Attitude to the referendum results among voters both introduced and not introduced to the findings of Gallup’s Institute, %

Most of those who are aware of that data don’t believe the Central Election Commission and take the idea of A. Lukashenko’s life presidency in the negative. Voters’ degree of trust to the results of the referendum influences even more their attitude to such a probability. (See Table 5).

Table 5. Attitude to A. Lukashenko’s life presidency among the voters trusting the data of the Central Election Commission and the voters trusting the data of Gallup’s Institute, %

Apparently, loyalty of the Belarusians to the current authorities and their policy stands in close relation with how they take referendum results. Thus, absolute majority of the voters trusting unofficial data are very negative about proceeding with the current course while it suits those who trust the Central Election Commission.

In our opinion, those who think – both within the opposition and the government – that the moods of citizens depend, first of all, on the degree of their awareness about the real state of things, referendum results included (this is why some work to spread such information to the utmost while the other, on the contrary, stop it), overestimate this factor. (See Table 6).

Table 6. Attitude to the results of the referendum among voters who voted for or against Constitution amendment, %

Thus, many of those who voted for Constitution amendment and got introduced to Gallup’s Institute results kept their initial standpoints. On the contrary, this data didn’t help those who voted against. In other words, enlightenment as well as public opinion handling have natural boundaries that are strictly defined with people’s life interests. Almost 920 000 voters who voted for Constitution amendment, i.e. over a quarter, take A. Lukashenko’s life-term presidency in the negative. Perhaps, these are the Belarusians who October 17 responded to the wording of the question (“Do you permit…?”) rather than to its content. As soon as they comprehended the outcome of that “permission”, they speak out “against”.

These are living conditions that define the interests of most people. No propaganda or counterpropaganda will be able to change them fundamentally if their living conditions improve. October referendum has become a turning point for the Belarusian people and showed true dynamics of people’s interest over the ten years of A. Lukashenko’s presidency. If compared with the living standard of the neighbors and not with the year 1994, living of the Belarusians hasn’t basically changed while future prospects got much fewer. Out of those voters who voted for A. Lukashenko at the latest presidential election, 82.3% voted for Constitution amendment at the referendum and 58.8% voted for pro-presidential candidates at the parliamentary election. Therefore, both true and pretended referendum results will influence the minds and feelings of the Belarusians yet for long.