ELITE IS READY TO VOTE FOR ALTERNATIVE CANDIDATES

In the course of recent opinion poll, we have found out that chances of the current head of state at the next presidential election are fairly high among all voters. To remind, almost 46.4% of respondents say they are ready to support him at the next election if it takes place tomorrow; he runs by far ahead of any opposition candidate in the hypothetical second round; he enjoys the lowest negative rating the highest positive rating and over 70% of voters believe that he will win the coming presidential election. In addition, attitude of common citizens to A. Lukashenko’s opponents is very restrained. In this regards, the elite is different from common voters. (See Table 1).

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “For whom of the following potential presidential candidates would you vote and for whom you wouldn’t vote for sure?”, %

Variant of answer	All respondents			Public sector employees			Private sector employees
Variant of answer	For	Against	DA/NA	For	Against	DA/NA	For	Against	DA/NA
V. Parfenovich	53	15	32	63	13	24	43	17	40
А. Kozulin	50	13	37	67	7	26	33	20	47
А. Voitovich	45	20	35	47	13	40	43	27	30
V. Kolos	43	15	42	50	7	43	37	23	40
А. Lebedko	37	20	43	23	23	54	50	17	33
А. Milinkevich	28	18	54	17	17	66	40	20	40
N. Masherova	27	32	41	30	23	47	23	40	37
V. Leonov	22	27	51	20	23	57	23	30	47
V. Frolov	18	28	54	7	30	63	30	27	43
S. Kalyakin	17	45	38	10	47	43	23	43	34
P. Kravchenko	17	40	43	23	30	47	10	50	40
А. Yaroshuk	15	22	63	10	17	73	20	27	53
А. Klimov	13	42	45	10	40	50	17	43	40
Z. Poznyak	13	55	32	10	63	27	17	47	36
N. Statkevich	5	38	57	7	27	66	3	50	47
S. Gaidukevich	2	80	18	3	73	24	–	87	13
А. Lukashenko	2	88	10	3	87	10	–	90	10

First, the elite rated A. Lukashenko the lowest. Second, leaders and experts singled out V. Parfenovich and A. Kozulin as their favorites. Third, these favorites as well as going after them A. Voitovich and V. Kolas don’t belong to the so-called traditional or party-based opposition. Its leaders A. Lebedko, S. Kalyakin and N. Statkevich yielded to the four mentioned above and, first of all, due to low rating among public sector employees who put A. Kozulin, former head of Belarus state University, at first place (he received the lowest negative rating).

A. Kozulin as well heads the list of those who, in the opinion of elite, can compete successfully with A. Lukashenko at the next presidential election. (See Table 2).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “In your opinion, who of the following politicians can compete successfully with A. Lukashenko at the next presidential election?”, % (open question, more than one answer is possible)

Variant of answer	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
А. Kozulin	37	33	40
V. Parfenovich	22	27	17
N. Masherova	17	13	20
А. Voitovich	12	7	17
А. Lebedko	10	–	20
V. Leonov	10	7	13
А. Milinkevich	8	–	17
S. Kalyakin	5	–	10
А. Klimov	5	3	7
V. Frolov	5	–	10
V. Kolos	2	3	–
М. Marinich	2	3	–
Z. Poznyak	2	–	3
А. Yaroshuk	2	–	3
No one	27	43	10

By the way, these are private sector employees who estimate his chances as the greatest and who acknowledge his potential, although they are not going to vote for him. Thus, suggestions that A. Kozulin takes a firm stand among the elite are truly more than just suggestions. Yet, the elite – just like the voters –estimates the chances of all candidates except for the president as low. (See Table 3).

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question “In your opinion, who will win the presidential election of 2006?”, % (open question)

Variant of answer	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
А. Lukashenko	53	63	43
А. Kozulin	5	3	7
А. Lebedko	3	–	7
Other candidate (5 names, each under 2%)	8	7	10
Other	8	3	13

It is hard to say if these estimates are mostly based on understanding of real possibilities of the authorities and their opponents or on strong pessimism following negative experience of previous campaigns. In the eyes of the elite, the situation looks as follows: “We don’t want and we will not vote for A. Lukashenko; we have our own candidates for presidency and some of them we think can rival with the current head of state but the latter will win anyway.”

Such disbelief in their potential is, first of all, based on awareness of people’s support of A. Lukashenko which they haven’t reached; second, it is based on awareness that the presidential election won’t be free or fair. To change the situation, leaders and experts recommend that the opposition improves its propaganda work with the electorate and solves the problem of its unity. (See Table 4).

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question “What should the opposition do to win greater support of the population?”, % (open question, more than one answer is possible)

Variant of answer	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
Improve its work with population	33	23	43
Increase propaganda	20	–	40
Reach unity within opposition camp	15	–	30
Carry more activities	15	3	27
Other	13	10	17

These propositions are not new and not genuine but their implementation remains acute and topical. Sufficiency of more active propaganda of democracy and free economics as well as consolidation of the opposition for the sake of victory in the next year seems already a rhetorical issue. It is entirely possible that it will stand in 2006 if the events in the opposition camp will develop like they did at the latest presidential and parliamentary elections. What encourages is elite’s unanimous aversion of A. Lukashenko’s presidency for a life-term. (See Table 5).

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question “What is your attitude to A. Lukashenko’s life-term presidency?”, %

Variant of answer	Nation opinion poll	Polling among leaders and experts
Variant of answer	Nation opinion poll	All respondents	Public sector employees	Private sector employees
Totally negative	27.8	95	93	97
Rather negative	24.4	2	3	–
Indifferent	13.1	–	–	–
Rather positive	21.8	–	–	–
Totally positive	12.3	2	4	–

To sum up all said above, let’s once again outline the key points. The major problem of the elite as well as the society lies in the field of psychology: both experts and electorate assume that A. Lukashenko will win the presidential election. However, unlike many voters, the elite wants to see the candidates it knows and is ready to support in the presidential seat rather than the current head of state. In the opinion of most leaders and experts, this is A. Kozulin who can rival A. Lukashenko at the presidential election but A. Lukashenko’s chances are much greater, though. As regards the support of the society, experts recommend that the opposition should carry more active work among voters and finally solve the longstanding problem of its unity. Yet, will this be enough for victory?