SHOWN-UP UNANIMITY

Visa restrictions introduced by the European Union after the last year parliamentary election and referendum were applied to a few top officials who, as they decided in Brussels, were involved in law violation during the election. Apparently, this is the reason why under a half of Belarusian citizens didn’t hear anything about the visa ban. Awareness of opinion leaders and experts on this issue was almost 100%. (See Table 1).

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “Have you heard about the visa ban which the EU introduced for a few top Belarusian officials?”, %

This is easy to explain. Thousands of common citizens take no interest in the problems of zealous officials. In fact, right after the election there appeared information that sanctions may be applied to a much greater circle, for example, members of divisional election committees. The elite certainly knew about this as well as it knew the reasons why “those involved” in organization of election and referendum were banned entrance in the united Europe. (See Table 2).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “Do you know why the EU introduced visa ban for these Belarusian officials?”, %

Apart from the problem of visa ban, the West has been taking closer interest in the situation in Belarus over lately. What’s more, statements of Western leaders turn progressively tougher. Fairly illustrative in this regards is recent statement of US Secretary of State C. Rice who called Belarus “the last dictatorship” in the centre of Europe and said that it was time to change the situation. We will talk later about the attitude of the authorities, opposition and electorate to C. Rice’s statements. Right now, the attitude of the Belarusian elite to the similar in its content recent resolution of the European Parliament in which President A. Lukashenko was called a dictator is already known: overwhelming majority of the polled leaders and experts agreed with such wording. (See Table 3).

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question “In its recent resolution, the European Parliament called the current regime in Belarus the dictatorship and the President – a dictator. Do you agree with this?”, %

A month before C. Rice’s statement, her direct chief US President G. Bush said in Bratislava, Slovakia, “one day the citizens of Belarus will be proud to live in a democratic country.” Those words provoked mixed response in Belarus. The official authorities burst another portion of angry criticism on the official Washington while common voters as well as leaders and experts took G. Bush’s statement in the positive yet to a different extent. (See Table 4).

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question “What is your attitude to the statement of US President G. Bush which he made in Bratislava before his meeting with V. Putin on that “one day the citizens of Belarus will be proud to live in a democratic country”?, %

Clearly, the Belarusians want to live in a democratic country and be proud of this but each of them puts his/her own sense into the word “democracy”. Quite possibly, that quarter of the Belarusians who took Bush’s statement in the negative consider that the current regime is fairly democratic, are proud of its achievements and don’t wish any other regime. Also, that half of public sector employees who claimed their indifference to Bush’s words may dream of country’s democratic prosperity different from the current but they don’t believe that “a fair day” will come in the near future. Obviously, positive response of private sector employees is natural as they have no prospects under the current regime and therefore they pin their hopes on possible changes in the top echelons of power. Hence, they welcome increasing activity of the West in this direction.

In its turn, Draft EU Program of Democracy Promotion in Belarus shows to that the West has given up appeals and declarations on Belarus and has turned to active actions. This Program, providing for increase of pressure over official authorities and rendering assistance to the civic society, has already been submitted for consideration to EU Commissioner for External Relations B.Ferrero-Waldner. How can it influence the situation in the country? Nearly a half of voters think it will in no way influence the country. At the same time, about one third of the Belarusians expects positive changes following program implementation. (See Table 5).

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question “The European Parliament has been considering the Draft EU Program of Democracy Promotion in Belarus. In particular, the Draft provides for increase of pressure over official authorities and rendering assistance to the civic society. If the program passes, how will this influence the situation in Belarus?”, %

As regards the elite, it once again demonstrates difference of opinion: prevailing skepticism among public sector employees and optimism – among private sector employees.

In conclusion, we should like to note that both common voters and the Belarusian elite interpret Western estimates of the Belarusian reality as well as bold forecasts of our democratic future aired in Brussels and Washington in the light of their personal standpoints and their attitude to the country’s political course. Therefore, experts’ estimates, especially those pertaining to democratic changes in the country, greatly depend on their belonging to the public or the private sector.