Estimation of integration moods within Belarusian electorate demonstrates progressively decreasing number of Russia-Belarus unification supporters. Today, one of seven-eight respondents wants this union while three years ago every fifth spoke out for this idea. (See Table 1). For the same period, the number of those standing for closer relations of the two countries within the framework of a particular union almost hasn’t changed, although the official propaganda still actively promotes it: from 51.7% to 50.6%, i.e. within the sampling margin of error. At the same time, the number of those who would rather have regular relations between the two countries (like between all CIS countries) increased nearly 1.5-fold.
Table 1. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question “Which variant of Russia-Belarus integration would you personally prefer?”, %
| Variant of answer |
12’02 |
03’03 |
11’04 |
09’05 |
| Belarus and Russia should form a union of independent states tied with close political and economic relations |
51.7 |
48.0 |
47.8 |
50.6 |
| Russia-Belarus relations should follow the pattern of other CIS member states |
19.7 |
19.3 |
32.1 |
28.9 |
| Belarus and Russia should merge into a single state with a sole president, government, army, flag, currency, etc. |
21.2 |
25.6 |
11.6 |
13.2 |
The registered dynamics witnesses lack of proper support by the authorities to the integration idea still dominating in the Belarusian mass thinking. What’s more, attitude of the Belarusian authorities to Russia-Belarus integration can confuse even the most ardent adherents of USSR restoration. Thus, in the beginning of his presidential carrier A. Lukashenko actively proclaimed “unification of the Slav peoples up to their full merging” and today he obviously promotes pro-nationalist idea. In his current speeches, he often ponders on the values of Belarusian independence, the role and importance of Belarus in the system of international relations, etc. However, his rhetoric and activity don’t give confidence that he will continue following this trend tomorrow.
Such fluctuations of the leader’s political line make it hard for his electorate to generate proper response. In particular, persistent assurance in “fraternal love to the Russian people” accompanied by rough assaults against the Russian government only confuse the electorate. At the same time, such behavior bears its fruit, which is seen in Table 2. Thus, regular attacks against the Russian authorities brought down V. Putin’s rating among the Belarusian electorate.
Table 2. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question “Provided there’s a position of Russia-Belarus Union’s president, whom would you choose for this position?”, % (open question)
| Variant of answer |
12’02 |
09’03 |
11’04 |
09’05 |
| A. Lukashenko |
20.5 |
21.1 |
29.8 |
33.2 |
| V. Putin |
46.9 |
45.2 |
24.3 |
25.7 |
On the other hand, previously presidential supporters have actively supported president’s course aimed at integration into Russia and nowadays they are much more reserved about this idea. According to Table 3, for the past three years the number of Russia-Belarus Union adherents among presidential supporters has gone down by 40% (from 29.0% to 17.3%) and supporters of all other integration variants not violating sovereignty of Belarus have increased by 18% (from 64.5% до 75.9%).
Table 3. Dynamics of preferences of A. Lukashenko’s supporters and opponents in respect to integration variants of Russia and Belarus, %
| Variant of answer |
A. Lukashenko’s supporters* |
A. Lukashenko’s opponents** |
||
|
12’02 |
09’05 |
12’02 |
09’05 |
|
| Belarus and Russia should form a union of independent states with close political and economic ties |
51.5 |
57.7 |
52.8 |
42.2 |
| Russia-Belarus relations should follow the pattern of other CIS member states |
13.0 |
18.2 |
22.4 |
42.1 |
| Belarus and Russia should merge into a single state with a sole president, government, army, flag, currency, etc. |
29.0 |
17.3 |
16.6 |
8.7 |
* A. Lukashenko’s supporters – those who trust him and would vote for him at the forthcoming presidential election
** A. Lukashenko’s opponents – those who don’t trust him and would vote for his rival at the forthcoming presidential election
As regards A. Lukashenko’s opponents, their small number of Russia-Belarus Union’s advocates has reduced nearly twofold (from 16.6% to 8.7%). Those who would rather see Russia-Belarus relations as between all other CIS member-states have increased as well almost twofold (from 22.4% to 42.1%).
Interconnection between respondents’ foreign political choice and their political viewpoints is brightly illustrated in their attitude to A. Lukashenko. (See Table 4).
Table 4. Attitude to A. Lukashenko depending on foreign political preferences, %
| Variant of answer* |
Supporters of integration into Russia |
Supporters of accession to EU |
| Trust to the President: | ||
| Trust (54.1) |
71.1 |
23.0 |
| Distrust (32.4) |
19.5 |
61.5 |
| For whom did you vote at the presidential election of 2001? | ||
| For A. Lukashenko (48.8) |
65.2 |
19.2 |
| For other candidate (16.8) |
9.4 |
33.8 |
| For whom would you vote if the presidential election is held tomorrow (open question): | ||
| For A. Lukashenko (47.3) |
65.3 |
14.6 |
| For other candidate (20.4) |
10.9 |
43.2 |
| Should A. Lukashenko be re-elected the president, or it is time to give a chance to other candidate? | ||
| Give chance to other candidate (44.8) |
27.0 |
81.4 |
| Re-elect A. Lukashenko (44.3) |
62.7 |
12.0 |
| For whom would you vote if choosing Russia-Belarus Union’s president? | ||
| For A. Lukashenko (33.2) |
47.8 |
8.6 |
| For V. Putin (25.7) |
21.3 |
36.4 |
* Data on the whole sampling is given in brackets
Thus, most supporters of integration into Russia are A. Lukashenko’s convinced electorate while most supporters of accession into the EU are his hard opponents. At the same time, support to V. Putin is 1.7-fold higher (36.4% vs 21.3%) among adherents of accession into EU than among supporters of integration into Russia! This clearly reveals who wants to integrate into which Russia.
In conclusion, we should like to say that at present Russia-Belarus unification concept has been changed in the Belarusian public mentality for the idea of friendly relations between the two independent countries. The first idea is supported by presidential supporters mainly and the second – by the opposition.