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THE CURRENCY WHICH BELARUSIANS PREFER

Table 1 demonstrates that many years of titanic efforts undertaken by the National Bank to strengthen the national currency have finally given positive results. Thus, 18 months ago over half of adult population gave preference to the dollar and today their number is 43.5%. The number of citizens who trust the national currency has increased from 28% to 33.7%.

Table 1. The currency enjoying the greatest trust among population, %

Variant of answer

03’04

09’05

US dollar

50.1

43.5

Belarusian ruble

28.0

33.7

Euro

17.5

16.2

Russian ruble

0.8

2.0

As for the sole European currency, it hasn’t yet won trust of the Belarusians. On the contrary, trust to Euro has gone down over lately.

Reasonable is the interest people show to Russia’s currency. Longstanding idle talks on the forthcoming conversion to the Russian ruble and inconsistent policy of the authorities in this direction quite naturally brought its fruit: polling doesn’t show growth of respect to this currency and the trust to Russian ruble doesn’t exceed the sampling error.

It is worth considering socio-demographic, socio-economic and political features of different currency supporters. (See Tables 2-4). Thus, those trusting the national currency are basically citizens over 50 with lower education level and per capita income below average (by 15%), pensioners and citizens of small towns and villages. Their number is the highest in Gomel region (23.6%) and the lowest – in Minsk (7.4%) and Grodno region (9.8%).

Table 2. Socio-demographic portrait of respondents trusting different currencies*, %

Variant of answer

BYR

RUR

USD

Gender:
Male

44.1

39.6

44.5

Female

55.9

60.4

55.5

Age:
Under 50

42.6

42.5

70.2

Over 50

57.4

57.5

29.8

Education:
Elementary/secondary incomplete/secondary general

69.9

58.5

55.4

Secondary vocational/higher

30.1

41.5

44.6

Average per capita income:
Below Minimum Consumer Budget

76.7

50.4

60.0

Above Minimum Consumer Budget

22.8

39.8

39.5

Status:
Public sector employee

38.5

31.7

46.3

Private sector employee

6.1

9.8

23.9

Student

2.4

3.0

5.5

Pensioner

47.7

52.5

18.3

Type of settlement:
Big cities (over 50,000 citizens)

31.8

44.7

58.4

Small towns (under 50,000 citizens) and village

68.2

55.3

41.6

Region of settlement:
Minsk

7.4

6.4

21.1

Minsk region

14.8

2.7

15.5

Brest and Brest region

16.7

21.2

13.4

Grodno and Grodno region

9.8

2.7

14.8

Vitebsk and Vitebsk region

16.8

20.8

12.0

Mogilev and Mogilev region

10.9

19.6

12.2

Gomel and Gomel region

23.6

26.6

11.1

*Table is read down

The same is the number of citizens over 50 who trust Russia’s currency but their education level and per capita incomes are considerably higher (by 22% above average). The part of pensioners is even greater among them. This suggests a great number of ex-military men among them who miss the broken Empire now identified with Russia which pays higher pensions to its service men. Town-dwellers and villagers still prevail in this group but their number is considerably less than in the first group. In their majority, they live in Gomel, Brest and Vitebsk regions and few of them live in Minsk, Grodno region and Minsk region.

Those who prefer US dollars are much younger than respondents in the two previous groups and have higher education level. Their per capita incomes are by 6% above average only. These are mainly employees, especially from the private sector, and students. Pensioners are the minority among them. Most of respondents from this group live in big cities, Minsk and Minsk region.

Table 3 shows that those who trust the national currency are more optimistic. Among them, there are twice as many respondents who declared improvement in their welfare over lately and tenfold more of those who awaits favorable socio-economic prospects for the country. Three quarters of them believe that the country goes in the right direction. However, only every eighth of them spent vacation abroad over lately.

Table 3. Socio-economic viewpoints of respondents depending on their trust to different currencies*, %

Variant of answer

BYR

RUR

USD

How has your welfare changed over the past three months?
Improved (17.5)

25.9

11.4

12.3

Hasn’t changed (61.4)

61.2

53.1

64.2

Aggravated (19.8)

12.2

29.1

22.5

Have you spent vacation abroad for the past five years?
No (73.4)

86.7

52.1

69.3

Yes (25.5)

12.5

45.3

29.7

How will socio-economic situation change in the near future?
Improve (30.9)

48.6

32.2

23.1

Won’t change (45.1)

37.9

31.4

48.2

Aggravate (14.9)

4.6

28.5

20.3

In general, does the country go in the right or wrong direction?
In the right (53.4)

75.0

45.2

45.2

In the wrong (30.2)

10.4

43.7

39.2

* Table is read down

Socio-economic standpoints of Russian ruble supporters are pretty different. Most of them claim aggravation of their welfare (to remind, their per capita incomes are still much higher than those in the second group). Therefore, they are very reserved about socio-economic improvement in the country. Now, about half of them think that the country goes in the right direction. Also, almost half of them spent vacations abroad in the past years.

Supporters of American dollar aren’t optimistic about current and future socio-economic course in the country either. As well half of them thinks that the country goes in the wrong / right direction. Every third of them spent vacation abroad in the past years. Taking into account their young age, they are apparently concerned about a slightly different range of topical problems.

Table 4. Attitude to certain political problems depending on respondents’ trust to different currencies*, %

Variant of answer

BYR

RUR

USD

Trust to the President:
Trust (54.1)

81.3

45.3

44.1

Distrust (32.4)

11.4

43.5

41.0

For whom did you vote at the presidential election of 2001?
For A. Lukashenko (48.8)

72.4

36.4

38.2

For other candidate (16.8)

5.2

32.3

23.2

How did you vote at the referendum of 2004 in the issue on A. Lukashenko’s running for presidency for additional terms?
Voted for (46.8)

69.7

39.2

38.6

Voted against (25.4)

8.2

39.3

34.1

For whom would you vote if the presidential election is held tomorrow?
For A. Lukashenko (47.3)

72.4

36.9

38.0

Should Belarus have an opposition to the current authorities?
Yes (57.6)

36.2

55.9

67.9

No (28.8)

45.5

25.5

21.8

How will you vote if A. Lukashenko runs for the third presidential term?
For A. Lukashenko (47.5)

74.9

28.9

37.2

For a candidate for democratic opposition (25.5)

7.1

38.1

31.9

For whom would you vote if choosing Russia-Belarus Union’s president?
For A. Lukashenko (33.2)

52.2

22.6

26.3

For V. Putin (25.7)

14.8

36.4

30.7

Should Belarus become an EU member?
Yes (38.0)

23.7

42.3

43.4

No (44.0)

54.7

41.9

40.4

If you need to choose between integration into Russia and accession into EU, what would you choose?
Integration into Russia (59.2)

77.2

52.5

52.6

Accession to the EU (28.6)

11.8

33.4

34.8

* Table is read down

As regards political viewpoint of the people trusting different currencies, Table 4 clearly reveals that national currency supporters in their majority are A. Lukashenko’s convinced electorate. Over 80% of them trust the president; twice as many of them voted for him in 2001 and nearly 70% voted at the referendum’04 for his right to run for presidency as many times as he wants. A. Lukashenko’s open rating makes 72.4% among them which is twofold higher than in the other groups. Furthermore, there are more of those among them who think that there’s no place to the opposition to the current authorities in Belarus. At the hypothetical presidential election of Russia-Belarus Union, most of them would vote for A. Lukashenko. Their overwhelming majority doesn’t want accession of Belarus into the EU. In fact, their negative attitude to the EU is so strong that over 77% of them would rather integrate into Russia, even irregardless of the will of their leader.

Political differences between Russian ruble supporters and US dollar supporters do take place but aren’t that deep to state serious differences between the two groups. In general, about half of them are supporters and half of them – opponents of the current Belarusian head of state.

All mentioned above points out that presidential supporters have to a certain degree overcome fear of the future and trust more the national currency. Apparently, they are certain that A. Lukashenko will help them overcome any financial crisis.

Presidential opponents have better learned from the recent bad experience. This is why they don’t trust the state and the Belarusian financial system accordingly. They prefer to operate with foreign currency, first of all the US dollar, rather than with national currency and don’t count on presidential assistance in case of default.