«

»

POLISH ISSUE

Few problems drew such close attention of the Belarusian publicity as the conflict over Union of Poles in Belarus which grew into an international conflict between Belarus and Poland. According to the polling data, almost 70% of respondents are aware of the conflict.

This is a very high indicator based not only on wide coverage of the issue in the mass media but on its importance for Belarusians. Poland is one of major geopolitical players in this region; Belarus is closely linked with it both historically and culturally. For the Belarusians, the Poles are the most affiliated nationality after the Russians and the Ukrainians. What’s more, the state and rights of this ethnic minority have become the issue of political collision which is usually taken hard in the society. Finally, the current conflict is the first one involving an EU and NATO member-state. The united Europe, although slightly involved into the conflict, obviously participates in it. What causes of the conflict do the Belarusians see?

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “In your opinion, what is a major cause of the conflict over Union of Poles in Belarus?”

Variant of answer

%

Interference of Poland and other Western countries into the internal affairs of Belarus

24.4

Attempts of the authorities to take Union’s activity under their control

19.8

Old and new boards of the Union couldn’t divide the money

9.0

Violations at the congress of the Union disclosed by the Belarusian Justice Ministry

8.7

Table 1 reveals the most widely given causes of the conflict: They are mostly political with a minor overweight in favor of the official interpretation in the manner of a fortress under siege. Remarkably, the official interpretation of the conflict – the Union members violated the law at the congress and the Belarusian Ministry of Justice rose up to stand up the law – was given less support among the respondents. Both opponents and supporters of the regime proceed from that in current Belarus the law is just legalized political expediency. The common viewpoint according to which all political problems and conflicts have the only explanation that they couldn’t divide the money won few supporters. However, since the official propaganda offered all three versions even though in different proportions – “external interference”, “law-based” and “admass”, together they appeared wider-spread than the idea of scheduled “cleansing” in the country’s political and civic field.

Similar trends are found in the answers to the question on conflict’s major initiators. (See Table 2).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “In your opinion, who is more guilty in escalating the conflict over the Union of Poles in Belarus?”

Variant of answer

%

Belarusian authorities

19.7

Polish authorities

16.7

Board of the Union of Poles

14.7

USA

8.1

European Union

3.5

The number of those respondents who lays responsibility on the Belarusian authorities and those who sees the cause of the conflict in their willingness to take the Union of Poles under their control (see Table 1) is almost equal – 20%. In fact, this is one and the same standpoint put in different wordings. Data in Table 2 shows obvious overbalance in favor of political estimates of the conflict: the version of guilt of the Union of Poles’ board isn’t popular even among those who think the victim is the Belarusian side.

Noteworthy is distribution of guilt between Poland’s allies as respondents give them in their estimates: the EU made attempts to defend its new member, although to a lesser extent than Polish politicians would like to, while the USA wasn’t involved in the conflict at all. However, persuasion in America’s hostility against Belarus provided for twice greater number of those respondents who blame USA in the confrontation than those who lay responsibility on the united Europe.

Although only every fifth respondent blamed the Belarusian authorities of the conflict, tough measures taken by the official Minsk raised dissatisfaction of most respondents. (See Table 3).

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question “Quite recently, Deputies of the European Parliament – Polish citizens coming on business visit to Belarus to investigate the conflict over the Union of Poles – were denied entrance into the country on the grounds that their visit, in the opinion of the authorities, might “cause a national discord”. The European Union condemned this decision and underlined that it increases international isolation of Belarus. What is your attitude to all this?”

Variant of answer

%

I support the actions of the Belarusian authorities

25.2

I don’t support the actions of the Belarusian authorities

32.9

I’m not concerned about this

20.2

Perhaps, the reason is that in general the Belarusians appreciate open borders and don’t welcome their closure be this for them or for others. Yet, at the same time the polling data shows extremely low level of pro-European moods among Belarusians; they went down significantly even as compared with the beginning of this year. (See Table 4).

Table 4. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question “Do you think Belarus should become a member of the European Union?”, %

Variant of answer

03’05

05’05

09’05

Yes

52.8

47.4

38.0

No

44.4

35.4

44.0

This downfall might have been caused not only by Belarus-Poland conflict, which is the first serious conflict of Belarus with the united Europe, but also by the results of referendum on EU Constitution in France and Netherlands: outright failure of an integration move reduced the value of this union. Data in Table 4 appears even more important if taking into account that in 2002 the number of people supporting accession of Belarus into Europe made 61%.

In addition, answers of respondents to the question if West is hostile against Belarus and Belarusians should be beware of it do agree with the above data. The opinions split almost equally: 44.4% said “yes” and 42.6% said “no”.

Data in Tables 1 and 2 points out to preference of political explanation by respondents. The data given below (See Tables 5 and 6) displays how these estimates are related with respondents’ political standpoints.

Table 5. Relation between answers to the question on the causes of the conflict over Union of Poles and Poland’s attitude to Belarus, attitude to the West in general and to candidates for the forthcoming presidential election in Belarus*, %

Variant of answer

Voting at the coming election

Attitude of Poland to Belarus

Is the West unfriendly towards Belarus?

For A. Lukashenko (47.5)**

For a democratic candidate (25.5)

Friendly (11.8)

Unfriendly (2.9)

Yes (38.0)

No (44.0)

Interference of Poland and other Western countries into the internal affairs of Belarus (24.4)

35.7

9.5

15.4

40.6

39.1

17.6

Attempts of the authorities to take Union’s activity under their control (19.8)

3.4

53.3

28.8

15.0

6.4

36.3

Old and new boards of the Union couldn’t divide the money (9.0)

7.8

7.6

9.3

8.4

9.9

8.9

Violations at the congress of the Union disclosed by the Belarusian Justice Ministry (8.7)

11.8

4.4

7.3

11.2

8.8

8.5

* Table is read down
** In brackets is given percentage of respondents on the whole sampling depending on their variant of answer

Table 6. Relation between answers to the question on the guilty of the conflict over the Union of Poles and Poland’s attitude to Belarus, attitude to the West in general and to candidates for the forthcoming presidential election in Belarus*, %

Variant of answer

Voting at the coming election

Attitude of Poland to Belarus

Is the West unfriendly towards Belarus?

For A. Lukashenko (47.5)

For a democratic candidate (25.5)

Friendly (11.8)

For A. Lukashenko (47.5)**

For a democratic candidate (25.5)

Friendly (11.8)

Belarusian authorities (19.7)

2.5

56.0

31.6

14.9

5.4

37.9

Polish authorities (16.7)

25.6

6.3

13.2

23.6

22.0

14.0

Board of the Union of Poles (14.7)

16.2

10.4

11.0

18.5

16.9

13.2

USA (8.1)

11.7

1.5

7.1

13.6

14.8

2.9

EU (3.5)

4.9

1.1

1.9

4.7

6.3

0.7

* Table is read down

Thus, external and internal political expectations of respondents affect to a great extent their answers to the questions on both causes of the conflict and those guilty in the conflict over the Union of Poles in Belarus. Internal factor like choice of a candidate for the coming presidential election appears here much more significant than the relations with Poland and the West in general. In a sense, this means that no special Polish issue exists for the Belarusian mass mentality. There’s only one issue – Belarusian…