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THREE “FOR,” TWO “AGAINST”?

As the data in Table 1 shows, 58.5% of respondents think that the country goes in the right direction. Twofold less respondents (28.1%) think in the opposite. The dynamics of answers reveals that the number of the first has increased 2.7-fold over the past three years and the number of the second has dropped down more than twofold (55.6%). Also, there is a tendency to decrease in the number of those who found it difficult to answer or gave no answer to this question. In other words, the number of convinced supporters of the current course is getting progressively higher in Belarus.

Table 1. Dynamics of answers to the question “In general, do you think the country goes in the right or wrong direction?”, %

Variant of answer

03’03

09’03

03’04

09’05

02’06

In the right

21.3

30.3

36.8

53.4

58.5

In the wrong

63.4

48.8

42.5

30.2

28.1

DA/NA

15.3

20.9

20.7

16.4

13.4

Table 2 also proves the above data. It shows that it is more important for 53.4% of respondents to have the current situation in the country preserved rather than changed like for 37.8% of more respondents.

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “What is presently more important for you – preservation or changing of the current situation in the country?”

Variant of answer

%

Preservation of the current situation is more important

53.4

Changing of the current situation is more important

37.8

DA/NA

8.8

Still more respondents (57.5%) are convinced that the current authorities are very prospective and may considerably improve life in the country. Only 30.4% of respondents defend the opposite viewpoint.

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question “In your opinion, is considerable improvement of life of population possible in Belarus under the current authorities and the course they carry?”

Variant of answer

%

Possible

57.5

Impossible

30.4

DA/NA

12.1

Naturally, these two groups have different political preferences. Thus, 89.3% of respondents who answered in the positive to the question of Table 3 and only 65.3% of those who answered to it in the negative will come to voting. What’s more, 81.2% of the first are going to vote for A. Lukashenko (for A. Milinkevich – 3.6%, for S. Gaidukevich – 3.1% and for A. Kozulin – 2.8%) while he has only 16.2% of support among the second (A. Milinkevich – 42.2%, A. Kozulin – 14.7% and S. Gaidukevich – 8.1%).

Thus, it is possible to report existence of two alternative (and even antagonistic!) groups of population in Belarus: the first is totally satisfied with the current regime and the system of power while the second, on the contrary, is dissatisfied with all this. The first group makes approximately 55-60% of adult population and the second – 30-40%. This means, every three citizens stand up against every two citizens. This is exactly the ratio which defines the real level of confrontation in the Belarusian society.