According to Table 1, the most topical among the problems determining the electoral choice of the Belarusians are still socio-economic problems like general quality of living (44.2% of respondents), rising prices (31.8%), healthcare (24.8%) and employment (23.1%). Any other problem, including democratization and country’s independence, corruptibility, crime, let alone freedom of consciousness is less acute for Belarusians. Therefore, it is possible to assume that a candidate able, in the opinion of population, to provide the best socio-economic conditions has the greatest chances to be elected the president.
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “What problems are the most topical for you when it comes to taking decision in favor of a presidential candidate?” (more than one answer is possible)
Variant of answer |
% |
General standard of living |
44.2 |
Rise in prices |
31.8 |
Improvement of healthcare |
24.8 |
Employment |
23.1 |
Democratization and independence in Belarus |
18.1 |
Payment of retirement pensions |
15.4 |
Corruptibility in the society |
9.4 |
Crime |
8.8 |
Relations with Russia |
8.4 |
Education |
7.7 |
Relations with the West |
5.3 |
Freedom of religion |
1.5 |
Who of the candidates has currently the best chances in this regards? Tables 2 and 3 partly answer this question. Thus, those who think that their socio-economic conditions will improve if A. Lukashenko wins (optimists) are twice as many as those who are convinced of the opposite (pessimists).
Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “In your opinion, in case A. Lukashenko wins the forthcoming presidential election:”
Variant of answer |
Will improve |
Won’t change |
Will aggravate |
DA/NA |
Prospects of your children |
37.5 |
28.6 |
16.9 |
17.0 |
Your welfare |
35.5 |
38.6 |
15.9 |
10.0 |
Your social position |
29.9 |
48.7 |
12.0 |
9.4 |
Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question ” In your opinion, in case a democratic candidate wins the forthcoming presidential election:”
Variant of answer |
Will improve |
Won’t change |
Will aggravate |
DA/NA |
Prospects of your children |
21.5 |
21.0 |
20.4 |
37.1 |
Your welfare |
16.7 |
26.6 |
23.1 |
33.6 |
Your social position |
14.3 |
37.1 |
18.6 |
30.0 |
In case a democratic candidate wins, optimists and pessimists are distributed approximately equally. However, the optimists expecting that A. Lukashenko will win are twofold more than optimists waiting for the victory of a democratic candidate. Also, about a third and over of respondents couldn’t give a clear answer when assessing their socio-economic prospects in case this candidate wins.
All this points out to the following: democratic candidates were not able yet to explain advantages and benefits of their socio-economic programs. Will they be able to do this in the time left?..