FOR WHOM TO VOTE AT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

Although the election campaign is now in full swing, many Belarusians haven’t yet decided for whom to vote or are still having doubts about their choice. Over a half of respondents said that they “presently have little information about presidential candidates to make choice with confidence.” We aren’t a team of a candidate and this is why we will not angle information in a way favorable for one and unfavorable for another candidate. Our goal is to demonstrate what Belarusians think today about the most pressing and topical issues of social development and help them make choice with confidence.

Asked the question “If only one candidate competes with A. Lukashenko at the presidential election, will you vote for this candidate or for A. Lukashenko?”, 58.9% of respondents said that they will vote for A. Lukashenko, 30.6% – for an alternative candidate and 10.5% found it difficult to answer. This means that at least a third of voters (i.e. almost 2.5 million people) look for changes and understand that their hopes will not come true if A. Lukashenko is re-elected.

Asked the question “For whom would you vote if the following four candidates stand on the ballot?”, 4.5% of respondents said for S. Gaidukevich, 6.4% – for A. Kozulin, 58.6% – for A. Lukashenko and 16.5% – for A. Milinkevich. Answering to the question “If only one candidate competes with A. Lukashenko at the presidential election, who of the following politicians would you like to see on the voting ballot?”, 13.5% chose S. Gaidukevich, 10.3% – A. Kozulin, and 26.6% – A. Milinkevich. Thus, A. Milinkevich’s supporters outnumber A. Kozulin’s and S. Gaidukevich’s supporters taken together. This is him on whom the majority of Belarusians looking for changes lay their hopes.

Who are them, supporters of presidential candidates? In what do they differ from one another? Let’s compare their sociological portraits. (See Table 1).

Table 1. Sociological portraits of the supporters of presidential candidates, %

Comparison of these portraits shows that supporters of all three alternative candidates sharply differ from supporters of the current president. The quality of living of the Belarusians ready to vote for alternative candidates is much worse than that of A. Lukashenko’s supporters. The quality of living is understood not only as welfare but also as dignity: many supporters of alternative candidates (and absolute majority among A. Milinkevich’s supporters) have suffered disregard, rudeness and sheer boorishness on the part of public authorities. The Belarusians offended by the authorities pin their hopes on president’s major rival rather than the president who once proudly called himself a public president. It is clear now why almost 18% of voters who voted for A. Lukashenko at the previous presidential election are nowadays ready to vote for his rivals. Nearly 30% of these voters either didn’t come to voting at the previous presidential election or voted against all candidates. This means that many of them didn’t see any alternative before and now they do see it.

Supporters of the current president have obvious advantage – they first of all outnumber supporters of alternative candidates and they are much more determined: over 90% of them say they certainly or most likely will come to voting. As for supporters of alternative candidates, only two thirds of them are as well determined to vote.

On the other hand, the majority of supporters of alternative candidates are voters aged 50 and below, i.e. the most active and the most independent part of the society which moves forth country’s economy and culture. On the contrary, over a half of supporters of the current president are persons aged 50 and over, the majority of them pensioners, i.e. the least active part of the society the state of which depends on the state support. Although the degree of support to presidential candidates differs substantially depending on respondents’ place of residence, it is obvious that each of them has supporters in the capital and in region centers, cities and in towns as well as in the village. The assertion that allegedly the capital stands for alternative candidates while towns and villages – for A. Lukashenko is not true: even though there are more Minsk residents among supporters of A. Kozulin and S. Gaidukevich than among supporters of A. Lukashenko, the number of A. Milinkevich’s supporters all around Belarus is nearly the same as the number of A. Lukashenko’s supporters.

We will soon know for whom the Belarusians will vote and now there’s still time for you to think and decide with whom to go. As the results of our research show, very different voters stand behind each of the candidates and this is different future behind each of them. Some want to go back into the past. Others want to stop in the present day. Yet another are concerned about the country they and their children will live in the near future.

That’s you who make this choice.