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THE MAJORITY LOVES RUSSIA AND NOT USSR!

As it goes from Table 1, when it comes to choice of the development path for the country, approximately one third of respondents (32.6%) prefer accession of Belarus into the European Union and slightly more than a half of respondents (53.9%) would choose integration with Russia. For the past two years, supporters of Europe-oriented integration decreased very insignificantly (less than by 4 points). However, supporters of East-oriented integration have grown up from 41% to 53.9%, i.e. by a third. This happened due to a considerable decrease in the number of vacillating (from 22.5% to 13.5%).

Table 1. Dynamics of answers to the question “If you are to choose between integration with Russia and accession to the European Union, which one would you choose?”, %

Variant of answer

03’04

03’05

04’06

Integration with Russia

41.0

51.9

53.9

Accession to the European Union

36.5

31.6

32.6

DA/NA

22.5

16.5

13.5

At the same time, the general number of vacillating on this issue is still very high (slightly less than a half taking into account those who gave no answer or said they are not going to take part in the referendum) as the data in Table 2 reveal. Thus, supporters of closer Russia-Belarus relations are much fewer in number than those who would prefer eastern direction of integration (37.8% vs. 53.9%). As regards those who traditionally said “I will see by the situation”, their part makes more than a third of the general number of respondents (36.4%).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “It is possible that Belarus and Russia will soon hold a referendum on the Constitution which will open a way to closer integration of the two countries. How will you vote at this referendum?”

Variant of answer

%

I will vote for the Constitution and for closer integration

37.8

I will vote against the Constitution and against closer integration

14.8

I will not come to such a referendum

7.1

I will see from circumstances

36.4

DA/NA

3.9

Table 3 shows that only about a third of Belarusians (35.5%) want that Belarus and Russia merge into a single state and, what’s more, A. Lukashenko stands the head of state. Exactly the same number of people (36%) stands against this idea.

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question “There are people in Belarus and in Russia who think that it would be better for the two countries if they merge and A. Lukashenko heads this union. What’s your opinion of this?”

Variant of answer

%

I wouldn’t like this happen

36.0

I want this happen

35.5

It doesn’t make difference to me

17.4

DA/NA

11.1

The analysis shows that two respondents out of three from the first group were ready to vote for the Constitution (See question of Table 2), about a third would vote against it and another 40% would “see from circumstances.”

Nearly a half of respondents (44.7%) are convinced that Russia-Belarus relations will improve if A. Lukashenko is elected the president of this union (See Table 4). A little fewer people (38.8%) think that this will aggravate relations with the West. Remarkably, around 40% of respondents say that A. Lukashenko’s election for presidency will not influence relations with either of the geopolitical centers, despite restrictions imposed by the West on Belarus and increasing price pressure from Russia.

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question “How do you think will A. Lukashenko’s election for presidency influence relations between Belarus and Russia (the West)?”, %

Variant of answer

Russia

West

They will improve

44.7

14.2

They will aggravate

11.2

38.8

They will not change

38.3

39.8

DA/NA

5.8

7.2

Despite A. Lukashenko’s public statements before the election, an overwhelming majority of the Belarusians (60.7%) think that the Kremlin supported him during the presidential race (See Table 5). As regards support from the West, over a half of respondents claim it was given to A. Milinkevich.

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question “Whom of the candidates you think Russian leaders (Western leaders) supported during the presidential campaign?”, %

Variant of answer

Russia

West

A. Lukashenko

60.7

7.1

S. Gaidukevich

4.0

1.1

A. Milinkevich

2.2

50.1

A. Kozulin

0.9

13.4

No one

19.3

15.5

DA/NA

12.9

12.8

Table 6. Attitude to USSR restoration, %

Variant of answer

11’93

11’97

11’99

04’02

06’04

12’05

04’06

Negative

22.3

25.5

30.1

42.6

50.8

48.3

63.4

Positive

55.1

49.9

38.0

38.8

39.5

38.0

26.7

DA/NA

22.6

24.6

31.9

18.6

9.7

13.7

9.9

Obviously, the general attitude of Belarusians to Russia remains pretty favorable, despite all kinds of collisions between the two countries regularly arising for different, first of all, uncontrolled reasons. What about nostalgia for the USSR? As one can see from Table 6, only 26.7% of Belarusians, which is almost equal to the number of pensioners, have it presently. Judging from the dynamics, very soon not only veterans will stop recalling their “happy Soviet childhood” but even the youth poorly aware about the USSR and its communist orders will stop using appropriate paraphernalia. What will public adepts of the past speak about then?