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IS EVERYTHING THAT FINE WITH US?

The polling data show that the generally positive perception of dynamics of personal welfare among Belarusians is getting stronger (See Table 1). In particular, the number of those who think that their welfare improved over the past three months has increased almost four-fold over the past three years (from 6.5% to 24.7%) and the number of those who think it went down has decreased by more than threefold over the same period (from 41.6% to 12.4%).

Table 1. Dynamics of answers to the question “How has your welfare changed over the past three months?”, %

Variant of answer

03’03

03’04

03’05

02’06

04’06

Improved

6.5

11.8

13.7

23.5

24.7

Hasn’t changed

50.5

58.1

61.8

59.7

61.8

Aggravated

41.6

28.2

21.2

14.2

12.4

DA/NA

1.4

1.9

3.3

2.6

1.1

Table 2 also points out to improvement of personal assessment of socio-economic situation in the country. Thus, answers of respondents almost haven’t changed over one month while their distribution shows that the Belarusians give quite a high assessment to the quality of their living.

Table 2. Dynamics of answers to the question “How would you in general evaluate the quality of your living?”, %

Variant of answer

03’06

04’06

Very / rather good

23.6

24.9

Average

59.0

56.9

Very / rather bad

16.4

17.3

DA/NA

1.0

0.9

Gradual improvement of welfare among population is as well seen in data of Table 3 which presents dynamics of assessment given by respondents to their per capita incomes. Thus, the part of those respondents who have incomes below the Minimum Consumer Budget (which presently makes $116) has decreased by almost 20 points over the past two years (from 81.9% to 62.1%) and the part of those whose incomes exceed the Minimum Consumer Budget has increased almost twofold (from 18.1% to 34.8%).

Table 3. Dynamics of answers to the question “Mark up please the average per capita income in your family in the past month (including wages, pensions, allowances and other earnings):”

Variant of answer

06’04

11’04

03’05

12’05

02’06

03’06

04’06

Below Minimum Consumer Budget

81.9

79.6

74.8

67.1

65.2

61.9

62.1

Minimum Consumer Budget and above

18.1

19.6

24.5

32.2

34.0

37.8

34.8

Table 4. Dynamics of answers to the question “Do you think in general the country is going in the right or in the wrong direction?”

Variant of answer

03’03

09’03

03’04

09’05

02’06

03’06

04’06

In the right direction

21.3

30.3

36.8

53.4

58.5

59.5

58.2

In the wrong direction

63.4

48.8

42.5

30.2

28.1

30.7

26.3

DA/NA

15.3

20.9

20.7

16.4

13.4

9.8

15.5

It is no wonder that the part of those respondents who think that the country is going in the right direction has considerably increased over lately and remains almost unchanged in the current year after reaching about 60% (See Table 4).

At the same time, respondents give more optimistic forecasts on further socio-economic situation in the country (See Table 5). Thus, the number of those who think that socio-economic situation in the country will improve over lately has gone up almost threefold (from 15.2% to 44.3%) over the past three years. Similarly, the number of those who think that the situation has aggravated has decreased almost threefold (from 43.7% to 14.9%).

Table 5. Dynamics of answers to the question “How do you think will socio-economic situation in Belarus change within the next few years?”

Variant of answer

03’03

03’04

03’05

04’06

Improve

15.2

23.1

29.7

44.3

Won’t change

30.2

42.9

40.8

34.4

Aggravate

43.7

22.9

16.8

14.9

DA/NA

10.9

11.1

12.7

6.4

Despite such optimistic public opinion, opinions of Belarusians about socio-economic situation in the country aren’t that bright in what regards more personal evaluation of living. In other words, assessment of Belarusian reality pertaining to citizens taken separately isn’t the same as it is customary to think and say, especially under the pressure of state propaganda. Data in Tables 6-8 prove this. Although, it must be admitted, propaganda well does its job building the right image about neighboring countries, the majority of respondents still admit that people in the neighboring countries which converted to normal market relations and democratization live better than Belarusians. Those who stick to the opposite standpoint are the minority.

Table 6. Dynamics of answers to the question “How do you think people live in the neighboring countries?”, %

Variant of answer

Better than in Belarus

Like in Belarus

Worse than in Belarus

DA/NA

03’05

04’06

03’05

04’06

03’05

04’06

03’05

04’06

In Poland

63.1

50.8

15.2

26.0

2.9

11.4

18.8

11.8

In Latvia

47.6

39.7

19.1

26.3

6.4

18.0

26.9

16.0

In Lithuania

45.7

36.8

20.8

27.3

6.2

20.0

27.3

15.9

In Russia

28.9

24.6

40.4

40.7

15.9

28.1

14.8

6.6

In Ukraine

11.2

10.9

30.9

26.0

41.6

56.1

16.3

7.0

Table 7. Dynamics of answers to the question “In your opinion, can young people presently make a good career in Belarus?”, %

Variant of answer

03’02

04’06

Yes, young people can make a good career in Belarus

43.2

61.6

No, they better go to some other country for this

39.4

30.7

DA/NA

17.4

7.7

Table 8. Dynamics of answers to the question “Would you like to move to some other country for permanent residence, if you have such an opportunity?”, %

Variant of answer

04’00

03’03

04’06

I wouldn’t like to move anywhere

57.4

54.8

64.4

I would like to move

39.5

40.7

31.5

DA/NA

3.1

4.5

4.1

Almost a third of respondents are still convinced that young people have better prospects for a good career in foreign countries than in Belarus (See Table 7). What’s more, these are not only youths who would like to move somewhere. As Table 8 shows, almost a third of respondents would use such an opportunity if they ever get it. Their part has decreased insignificantly for the past six years – only by 8 points (from 39.5% to 31.5%).

Thus, life in Belarus isn’t that nice as the official authorities claim and as the propaganda urges people to think. Many people understand this.