On April 16, 2006 independent sociologists at the assistance of O. Manaev’s group (field study and processing of the data was carried by other team of professionals) conducted a nation opinion poll (those face-to-face interviewed are 1,594 persons aged 18 and over, margin of error doesn’t exceed 3%). The opinion poll aimed at verifying the data received during the previous opinion poll conducted at the assistance O. Manaev’s group from March 27 to April 6 of 2006.
Table 1. Comparative research of the results received during opinion polls I and II*, %
Indicators |
Opinion poll I |
Opinion poll II |
How would you in general assess the quality of you living? | ||
Very good |
2.2 |
3.0 |
Rather good |
21.4 |
21.9 |
Average |
59.0 |
56.9 |
Rather bad |
12.9 |
13.8 |
Very bad |
3.5 |
3.5 |
DA |
1.1 |
0.9 |
Do you think in general the country is going in the right or wrong direction? | ||
In the right direction |
59.5 |
58.2 |
In the wrong direction |
30.7 |
26.3 |
DA |
9.8 |
15.5 |
In your opinion, can young people presently make a good career in Belarus? | ||
Yes, young people can make a good career in Belarus |
54.4 |
61.6 |
No, they better go to some other country for this |
30.1 |
30.7 |
DA |
15.5 |
7.7 |
Would you like to move to some other country for permanent residence, if you have such an opportunity? | ||
To Germany |
9.1 |
9.7 |
To USA |
7.6 |
7.3 |
To Russia |
3.9 |
3.7 |
To Poland |
2.5 |
3.2 |
To the Baltic States |
1.0 |
2.1 |
Other country |
6.7 |
5.5 |
Wouldn’t like to move somewhere |
61.6 |
64.4 |
DA |
7.4 |
4.1 |
Do you remember for whom you voted at the presidential election of 2001? | ||
For A. Lukashenko |
49.6 |
49.6 |
For V. Goncharik |
10.5 |
11.2 |
For S. Gaidukevich |
5.1 |
6.4 |
Didn’t come to voting |
18.2 |
17.1 |
Against all |
7.5 |
6.8 |
Refused to answer |
3.9 |
4.9 |
Don’t remember for whom voted (found it difficult to answer) |
5.2 |
4.0 |
How did you vote at the referendum of 2004 on allowing A. Lukashenko run for presidency for more than two consecutive terms? | ||
Voted for |
52.8 |
50.5 |
Voted against |
24.3 |
25.3 |
Mutilated the ballot |
1.2 |
1.2 |
Didn’t come to voting |
18.4 |
18.4 |
Came to voting but refused to tell how he/she voted |
2.7 |
3.1 |
NA |
0.5 |
1.5 |
Have you suffered an offence from governmental bodies for the past three years? | ||
No, I haven’t |
60.4 |
63.1 |
Yes, many times |
8.9 |
8.2 |
Yes, several times |
18.7 |
15.5 |
Yes, once |
8.9 |
9.6 |
DA |
3.0 |
3.6 |
Did you come to vote at the presidential election of March 19, 2006? | ||
Yes, I voted ahead of term (on March 14-18) |
25.7 |
25.9 |
Yes, I voted on Sunday, March 19 |
65.8 |
64.6 |
No, I didn’t come to voting |
8.5 |
9.5 |
Do you think this election was free and fair? | ||
Yes |
57.9 |
61.2 |
No |
32.9 |
27.2 |
DA |
9.2 |
11.6 |
For whom did you vote at the presidential election of March 19? | ||
For S. Gaidukevich |
2.0 |
4.4 |
For A. Kozulin |
4.7 |
6.0 |
For A. Lukashenko |
58.2 |
54.2 |
For A. Milinkevich |
18.8 |
15.8 |
Against all |
3.2 |
3.1 |
Refused to answer the question |
4.1 |
7.0 |
Didn’t come to voting |
9.1 |
9.5 |
Do you think the election results announced by the Central Election Commission are true election results or falsified? | ||
Definitely true |
38.1 |
33.9 |
Rather true |
25.6 |
32.7 |
Rather falsified |
14.1 |
17.0 |
Definitely falsified |
14.9 |
11.4 |
DA |
7.3 |
5.0 |
What is your attitude to mass actions of protest which were held in Minsk after the presidential election? | ||
Approve |
20.4 |
23.9 |
Don’t approve |
45.9 |
53.6 |
This doesn’t matter to me |
33.7 |
15.9 |
DA |
6.6 |
|
Do you think you are more a European or a Soviet man? | ||
I’m rather a modern European man |
36.0 |
41.3 |
I’m rather a Soviet man |
52.0 |
46.1 |
DA |
12.0 |
12.6 |
In your opinion, how will election of A. Lukashenko for presidency influence the relations between Belarus and the West? | ||
They will improve |
16.4 |
14.2 |
They will aggravate |
45.7 |
38.8 |
They will not change |
29.8 |
39.8 |
DA |
8.1 |
7.2 |
In your opinion, how will election of A. Lukashenko for presidency influence Russia-Belarus relations? | ||
They will improve |
45.2 |
44.7 |
They will aggravate |
13.5 |
11.2 |
They will not change |
37.3 |
38.3 |
DA |
4.0 |
5.8 |
If you are to choose between integration with Russia and accession to the European Union, which one would you choose? | ||
Integration with Russia |
56.1 |
53.9 |
Accession to the European Union |
31.9 |
32.6 |
DA |
12.0 |
13.5 |
Whom of the candidates you think the Kremlin supported during the presidential campaign? | ||
S. Gaidukevich |
1.8 |
4.0 |
A. Kozulin |
1.3 |
0.9 |
A. Lukashenko |
58.2 |
60.7 |
A. Milinkevich |
4.2 |
2.2 |
Supported no one |
17.3 |
19.3 |
DA |
17.3 |
12.9 |
Do you have a video or a DVD recorder? | ||
I have a DVD recorder |
10.6 |
11.7 |
I have a video recorder |
30.1 |
30.5 |
I have both a video and a DVD recorder |
16.5 |
18.5 |
I don’t have either |
41.8 |
39.0 |
DA |
1.0 |
0.3 |
Do you use the Internet? | ||
Yes, daily |
4.7 |
5.0 |
Yes, several days a week |
8.8 |
8.0 |
Yes, several days a month |
7.7 |
7.7 |
Yes, several days a year |
3.8 |
6.4 |
No |
70.1 |
68.8 |
I don’t know what it is |
3.9 |
4.1 |
What language do you use for everyday communication? | ||
Belarusian |
3.5 |
3.8 |
Russian |
61.0 |
62.2 |
Both Russian and Belarusian |
12.9 |
12.7 |
Crude mixture of both |
21.5 |
21.0 |
Other |
0.2 |
0.3 |
* This and following tables are read down
As the data of Table 1 reveal, in absolute majority of cases the results of both opinion polls on the same questions are identical within the margin of error.This means they are absolutely true.
So as to find out exact results of the voting at the election of March 19, it is necessary to distribute those who refused to answer this question (see Table 2). They make 7% of respondents.
Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “For whom did you vote at the presidential election of March 19?”
Variant of answer |
% |
S. Gaidukevich |
4.4 |
A. Kozulin |
6.0 |
A. Lukashenko |
54.2 |
A. Milinkevich |
15.8 |
Against all |
3.1 |
Refused to answer |
7.0 |
Didn’t come to voting |
9.5 |
To do this, we shall analyze their attitude to A. Lukashenko and his political course (See Table 3).
Table 3. Attitude of those who refused to answer the question about voting at the election of March 19 to A. Lukashenko and his political course
Variant of answer |
% |
Do you think in general the country is going in the right or wrong direction? | |
In the right direction |
33.0 |
In the wrong direction |
32.6 |
DA |
34.4 |
Do you trust the president? | |
Trust |
31.5 |
Don’t trust |
44.3 |
DA |
24.2 |
Do you think this election was free and fair? | |
Yes |
42.2 |
No |
24.9 |
DA |
32.9 |
Do you think the election results announced by the Central Election Commission are true election results or falsified? | |
Definitely true |
9.1 |
Rather true |
44.6 |
Rather falsified |
30.1 |
Definitely falsified |
2.3 |
DA |
13.9 |
What is your attitude to the mass actions of protest against rigging of election which were held in Minsk and other cities after March 19? | |
Approve |
27.4 |
Disapprove |
31.9 |
Indifferent |
25.9 |
DA |
14.8 |
In your opinion, is Alexander Lukashenko, who was given office for the third consecutive term, a legitimate president of Belarus? | |
Yes |
48.0 |
No |
27.3 |
DA |
24.7 |
The data of Table 3 draw to the following conclusion: about 40% of those respondents who refused to answer the question asking for whom they voted at the presidential election are A. Lukashenko’s supporters and another third of respondents are supporters of alternative candidates (remaining 25% of respondents most likely voted against all). This means that we need to add 2.8% out of those 7% to 54.2% of respondents who said that they voted for the president in office (in absolute figures, 865 + 45 = 910 respondents), 1.2% out of those 7% – to those who voted for A. Milinkevich (252 + 20 = 272 respondents) and 0.6% – to those who voted for A. Kozulin (96 + 10 = 106 respondents). Out of all respondents, over 90% (i.e. 1443 respondents) said they came to voting when asked two different questions. Therefore, the final results look as follows: 910 out of 1443 = 63.1%, 272 out of 1443 = 18.8%, and 106 out of 1443 = 7.3%.
Table 4. Results of voting at the presidential election, %*
Voted: |
Data of Central Election Commission |
Data of pre-election opinion poll** |
Data of after-election opinion poll I*** |
Data of after-election opinion poll II*** |
For S. Gaidukevich |
3.5 |
5.0 |
2.2 |
5.2 |
For A. Kozulin |
2.2 |
7.0 |
5.0 |
7.3 |
For A. Lukashenko |
83.0 |
64.7 |
64.9 |
63.1 |
For A. Milinkevich |
6.1 |
18.3 |
21.4 |
18.8 |
Against all (including mutilated ballots) |
5.2 |
5.0 |
6.4 |
5.5 |
* Polling data is calculated based on 90% appearance
** Pre-election polling was conducted on February10-20 of 2006
*** The first after-election opinion poll was conducted on March 27-April 7, the second – on April 16-29 of 2006
Thus, voting results after both opinion polls are the same within the margin of representative error, and therefore can be recognized true. All further disputes about their reliability will not be a political discussion but rather a political speculation.