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PAYING BUT NOT WITH “FAMILY JEWELS”

Russia-Belarus relations, judging by constant leaks into Russian newspaper Kommersant, hold a firm first place in the line of news. According to its publication of May 30, Russia’s natural gas monopoly Gazprom offered to Belarus “to purchase natural gas for $200 per 1,000 m3 in 2007 instead of $46.68 which it currently pays. Experts say such stiffness is the result of Kremlin’s failure to take gas distributors of CIS under its control.”

The official establishment, and in particular presidents of Russia and Belarus, don’t give any comments or make official statements. The data of the nation opinion poll given in Table 1 was collected yet in April of 2006 when rise in prices wasn’t discussed yet. As regards leaders and experts, they took evenly the very idea of price rise to the European level. As one can see, 85% of respondents say that the market approach to price establishment is fair, unlike the mass opinion on this issue. According to the nation opinion poll, such-like supporters of market prices are only 30.8% of respondents.

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “Head of Russia’s gas monopoly Gazprom A. Miller stated in late March that starting from 2007 Belarus will have to buy gas at European prices, i.e. pay fivefold more than presently. What do you think about this demand?”, %

Variant of answer

Opinion poll among leaders and experts

Nation opinion poll (04’06)

All respondents

Public sector employees

Private sector employees

It is fair. Any product should be paid for as much as it costs

85

77

94

30.8

It is unfair. Belarus is Russia’s closest ally, and Russia shouldn’t demand that Belarus pays for gas at the same prices like other countries

12

20

3

61.3

NA

3

3

3

7.9

If readiness to pay to Russia for gas is defined as, let’s say, assignation of Beltransgaz against payment, the number of market policy supporters goes down both among the elite and the population in general. What’s more, the margin between public and private sector employees doesn’t exceed the margin of error. To compare, there are only 16.9% of those respondents among population in general who are ready to pay with ‘family jewels.’

Table 2 proves this conclusion. Thus, 41.5% would rather persuade Russia not to raise prices. Such a na?ve solution is four-fold less popular (10%) among leaders and experts.

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “How do you think should Belarus respond to Russia’s demand to buy gas at European prices?”, %

Variant of answer

Opinion poll among leaders and experts

Nation opinion poll (04’06)

All respondents

Public sector employees

Private sector employees

Demand that Russia pays more for transit, for its military targets and other services which Belarus renders to Russia

87

80

93

58.0

Persuade Russia not to increase prices for its ally

10

13

7

41.5

NA

3

7

0.5

However, data in Table 3 shows real confusion among leaders and experts. It is one thing to discuss in the abstract market relations between states and quite another – to propose a solution in case of a really rising gas price. It is noteworthy that the number of those who gave no answer is 24% in the private sector vs. 58% in the public sector! It seems representatives of the public sector are simply not ready to such developments.

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question “What do you think will the authorities do if Russia really rises prices on gas to the European level?”, % (open question)

Variant of answer

All respondents

Public sector employees

Private sector employees

Agree to incorporate into Russia

12

17

7

Start a row in the mass media

12

3

20

Rise in-country prices

7

13

Start economic reforms

7

13

3

Impose sanctions against Russia

7

3

10

Come to terms with Russia

7

3

10

Other

8

3

13

DA/NA

40

58

24

This confusion of public sector employees is quite surprising at the background of their faith in country’s self-sufficiency. Data in Table 4 well demonstrates that the parasitic attitude which has formed for the past 12 years among the majority of population has been actively absorbing the public sector elite as well.

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question “Which of the statements below do you agree with?”, %

Variant of answer

Opinion poll among leaders and experts

Nation opinion poll (04’06)

All respondents

Public sector employees

Private sector employees

Belarus is a self-sufficient country. Its economy will survive even if prices for gas rise to the European level

60

87

33

53.6

If Russia takes prices for gas to the European level for Belarus, the Belarusian economy will collapse

38

13

63

45.5

NA

2

4

0.9

In the opinion of leaders, the gas problem cannot be settled by integration into a union state either. They don’t believe into possibility of such a union. Even though 23% of public sector employees found it difficult to answer, there’s in general a considerable unity of opinion on this issue among public and private employees – 83% of them say Russia and Belarus will not merge into a single state.

The hypothetic idea of putting A. Lukashenko the head of this union found no support. No one of the opinion leaders answered in the positive to the question of Table 5.

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question “There are people in Belarus and in Russia who think that it would be better for the two countries if they merge and A. Lukashenko heads this union. Do you believe this is possible?”, %

Variant of answer

All respondents

Public sector employees

Private sector employees

This is entirely possible

This is hardly possible

37

43

30

This is absolutely impossible

61

54

70

DA/NA

2

3

Opinion leaders are as well very suspicious about possibility of Russia to build market relations with its neighbors. Thus, 68% of respondents interpreted as purely political just another Russia-Georgia trade conflict pertaining to ban on the import of Georgian vine and mineral water. Those who agreed that this is a measure to protect consumer market from low-quality products are much fewer – 23%. Of course, such assurance in the artifice on the part of Russia influences assessment of Russia-Belarus integration possibility.