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YOUTHS DON’T SEE PROSPECTS FOR THEM IN BELARUS

The results of the nation opinion poll conducted in the second part of April of 2006 have revealed, as the Table 1 shows, that the number of respondents who think that the quality of living in the country is (to a different extent) good is almost 1.5-fold greater than the number of those who say it is bad (24.9% vs. 17.3%). Nearly 57% of the polled estimated it as the average, but it is obvious that positive estimates of the quality of living are in general dominating in the Belarusian society. At the same time, answers of opinion leaders and experts to this same question give much less grounds for optimism: they give twice as many negative answers on the quality of living as positive (30% vs. 15%). What’s more, no one of private sector employees at all answered in the positive while the number of negative answers is equal in both sectors (30% each). All this indicates that the elite, that exactly knows the real socio-economic situation and is less subject to media propaganda, doesn’t feel placid.

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “How would you in general assess the quality of living in Belarus?”, %

Variant of answer

Opinion poll among leaders and experts

Nation opinion poll (04’06)

All respondents

Public sector employees

Private sector employees

Very / rather good

15

30

24.9

Average

55

40

70

56.9

Rather / very bad

30

30

30

17.3

DA/NA

0.9

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “How do you think will socio-economic situation in Belarus change in the near future?”, %

Variant of answer

Opinion poll among leaders and experts

Nation opinion poll (04’06)

All respondents

Public sector employees

Private sector employees

Improve

8

17

44.3

Won’t change

38

53

23

34.4

Aggravate

50

27

73

14.9

DA/NA

4

3

4

6.4

This conclusion is proved in Table 2 which presents socio-economic prospects of the country over the short-term perspective as they are seen by the population and the elite. The population in general assumes they are very favorable: 44.3% optimistic answers vs. 14.9% (almost threefold more!) This is every third (34.4%) only who thinks that the situation will not improve, yet it will not aggravate either. As regards leaders and experts, their dominating part is not optimistic about the short-term perspective: only 8% (all from the public sector) believe that the life will get better while every second respondent (three out of four respondents are private sector employees) expects aggravation of the situation in the very near future.

Data in the next Table 3 shows that leaders and experts are in this case much closer to the truth than respondents of the nation opinion poll in general. Thus, nearly a half of Belarusians (47.2%) wouldn’t mind leaving ‘prosperous’ Belarus and going somewhere to the EU for a temporary job, although only some 15% of adults expect aggravation of socio-economic situation in the country and only 17% estimate in the negative the quality of life! Clearly, the number of those who would like to get a temporary job in the EU is higher among leaders and experts.

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question “If you had an opportunity, would you like to work on a temporary basis in an EU country?”, %

Variant of answer

Opinion poll among leaders and experts

Nation opinion poll (04’06)

All respondents

Public sector employees

Private sector employees

Yes

57

50

63

47.2

No

43

50

37

48.4

DA/NA

4.4

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question ” In your opinion, can young people presently make good career in Belarus?”, %

Variant of answer

Opinion poll among leaders and experts

Nation opinion poll (04’06)

All respondents

Public sector employees

Private sector employees

Yes, young people can make good career in Belarus

40

50

30

61.6

No, they better go to some other country to do a career

50

43

57

30.7

DA/NA

10

7

13

7.7

Accuracy of this conclusion is also proved in Table 4. Almost every third respondent (30.7%) says that the youths don’t have prospects in this country and they should better move to some other country. As concerns leaders and experts, every second of them sticks to this viewpoint (43% – in the public sector, 57% – in the private sector).

This way, although many Belarusians think that the life in this country is not bad, they wish better life for their children. No matter how much the state-run mass media praise ‘advantages’ of the Belarusian economic model, political machinery and the president, a great part of young people would like to live far from this ‘prosperity’. What’s more, they have support of a considerable part of older generation. These are the true results of country’s development on the course chosen by the authorities. Yet, salaried propagandists keep silent about this.