BELARUSIAN ELITE LOOKS AT THE WEST

It is well known how the Belarusian authorities take the West. It is more than ten years since they ordered to shoot the balloon with American pilots, but their relations with the West haven’t improved yet. Despite growing trade with Western countries, political tenseness only increases and acquires the traits of civilization division. Self-isolation of the country is throwing it out of the European system of values. Belarusians are recommended to look for friends and partners in the Arab East or even in the far-away Asian-Pacific region. This course will not change in the short-term perspective, as A. Lukashenko stated in his annual address to the Parliament and the nation.

The current Belarusian authorities pose themselves as a popular rule and this is why encouragement of anti-Western moods by means of mass propaganda ensures public support to their policy of self-isolation. We have many times spoken about conflicting geopolitical attitudes of the Belarusian electorate which often differ from attitudes of the supreme power. What does the elite think about this?

As the analysis shows, the absolute majority of the Belarusian elite thinks that the West is not hostile towards Belarus or they don’t need to be careful with it (See Table 1). This is the opinion of not only leaders from civil organizations and private business (which is undoubted under the Belarusian conditions) but of most public sector employees as well, which is very important. This means that many of the people who actually work for this anti-Western policy – officialdom, deputies, diplomats, journalists, scientists, etc. – don’t share it in reality but have to do this (to say in parenthesis, “have to” doesn’t mean “are forced to” as many of them earn big money for what they do).

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question “Do you think the West is hostile towards Belarus and the Belarusians should be very careful with it?”, %

Tough reaction of the West to the recent presidential election, which this time came down not only to non-recognition of its results but also to political sanctions against main organizers and hands of this campaign, didn’t provoke the feeling of mass protest even among common voters. It was rather approved among the elite, including the public sector (See Tables 2-4).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question “In early March, US President G. Bush submitted a special letter to the Congress within the framework of the Democracy Act on Belarus. The letter states that President A. Lukashenko receives incomes from arms traffic into his personal fund and therefore proposes to stop his bank accounts abroad. Some of Belarusian citizens say this is good and other – this is bad. What is your attitude to this initiative of G. Bush?”, %

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question “The USA, the EU, the European Parliament, the Council of Europe and other influential international organizations didn’t recognize the results of the presidential election in Belarus as the latter “did not comply with OSCE standards” but they supported the opposition in its demands to held the election anew. Some people say this is a fair decision, other – unfair. What is your opinion?”, %

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question “The EU and the USA have been constantly imposing sanctions on the Belarusian authorities. They have banned entrance of top Belarusian officials and A. Lukashenko to the EU countries and USA as they think these people are responsible of rigging the presidential election and of repression against participants of peaceful actions of protest. Some of our fellow citizens say this is right, other – this is wrong. What is your opinion?”, %

The Belarusian elite are much more than the population in general interested in co-operation with the European Union and its organizations (See Table 5).

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question “The European Commission, an EU executive body, has announced about its readiness to open office in Minsk. What’s your attitude to this?”, %

All this indicates that the overwhelming part of the elite understands the following: current anti-West policy doesn’t serve country’s national interests. Due to the circumstances (strict control of the authoritarian power over the society), the elite from the private sector cannot influence the politics actively while a great part of the elite from the public sector has to carry out the policy it doesn’t share. It is not ‘through the sight’ that the Belarusian elite looks at the West but with a hidden interest and to a certain extent with hope. On these grounds, we assume that as soon as other wind (from inside or outside) blows, we will find out we have many experts in this country – not only in the opposition but in the ruling circles as well – who can take the country back into Europe.