PARADOX OF THOSE NOT THINKING AND INDIFFERENT

Stated press conference of A. Lukashenko to mass media representatives was held on November 23. On the next day Sovetskaya Belorussia published a many-sheet record of the meeting and made a note at its very end that the record was insignificantly abridged. Our experience of work with this kind of publications proves that these are the most important quotes and not the secondary which are generally taken off. We were right. Please see below the quote omitted in the newspaper: “Yes, we rigged the previous election, and I already told this to representatives of the West. These are… 93.5% who voted for President A. Lukashenko. They say, this is not a European indicator. Therefore, we showed 86% (Laughter in the pressroom). That’s right. If we start re-count of votes now, I don’t know what to do with all the bulletins then.”

Now, how many votes did A. Lukashenko get at the latest presidential election? Independent sociologists claim 63% (plus-minus 3%, of course). This is substantial difference after all. We shall go beyond the customary electoral field consisting of president’s supporters and opponents in search of additional sociological arguments. There isn’t totally politicized electorate in reality, and this is why we shall single out the group of citizens indifferent to politics which is very relatively the electorate since they don’t show great willingness to come to voting.

In the opinion of Russian sociologist R. Gromova, about 20% of Russians are indifferent to politics in the type of their consciousness. “People of such mind find it difficult to answer the majority of questions pertaining to political situation, election or political preferences. This field is alien and not interesting for them. Politically indifferent consciousness can be autistic (closed on itself, on the family, etc.), or express disappointment in political institutions or simply living, or express the rational and selfish standpoint of man who counts on himself/herself in the first place.” (See: R. Gromova. “In regards to the Types of Political Consciousness of Russians”. Monitoring of public opinion, No.2, March-April of 1999).

It should be noted that any sociological model implies simplification. Dividing Russians into three groups in the type of consciousness (rational, mythological and politically indifferent) Gromova notes that “only from a quarter to a third of members within each group makes the core.” Let’s look into Table 1 for politically indifferent Belarusians.

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “Some people place themselves among supporters and other – among opponents of the current authorities. To what group do you relate yourself?”

The question of this kind usually doesn’t give the alternative “I never thought about this and this does matter to me,” so such high percentage of those who chose it was quite unexpected. Perhaps, this is the abstract notion “power” which played its role here.

We shall split this notion into components so as to make more specific (see Table 2). Of course, this is the president who embodies power in Belarus, hence only 2.3% of supporters of authorities found it difficult to define their attitude to him. This percentage is a little higher (6.3%) among opponents of authorities. Finally, such respondents make about a third among those not thinking and indifferent (below, politically indifferent). In accordance with the conception of the core, this third can be found in the assessments of almost all state and public institutions.

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “Do you trust to the following state and public institutions?”*, %

* Table is read down

It would be interesting to find out the attitude of politically indifferent citizens to paired institutions: Federation of Trade Unions vs. free and independent trade unions, state-run vs. non-state mass media, and pro-governmental vs. opposition political parties. We should like to draw your attention to the following: degree of trust/distrust within a pair is almost the same while the percentage of those who found it difficult to answer still remains high. Politically indifferent citizens give the most trust to Army and Orthodox Church. They are not original in this regards because all these institutions have their own tradition of legitimacy cherished through centuries. Quite expectedly, political parties and Protestant Church received the lowest degree of trust. The level of trust to Protestant Church is equal within all the three groups which reveals foreignness of Protestantism in the modern confessional field of Belarus.

Table 3 will help assess the interest Belarusians show in politics. As a criterion of assessment, we chose the level of awareness about A. Lukashenko’s press conference of September 29.

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “Did you read or listen to President A. Lukashenko’s answers to the questions of journalists working for Russian mass media which the latter asked at the press conference of September 29, 2006?”, % (more than one answer is possible)

In general, only a quarter of citizens appeared not aware. The difference between supporters and opponents of authorities made up only 4.6 points and the percentage of the politically indifferent exceeded a third. Answers of respondents well demonstrate propaganda possibilities of different mass media. Traditional electronic media still go beyond competition. Belarusians are not readers but TV viewers rather. Yet, the information source like rumors hasn’t exhausted its potentialities as well which prove in 17.6% of the answer “Heard from my friends.” It is not surprising that the Internet is popular first of all among opponents of authorities since independent sociological studies show over years that opponents of the current regime in Belarus are mainly young and well-educated people.

Now, what is the socio-demographic portrait of the politically indifferent citizens? Russia long ago found the answer to this question. These are first of all marginal groups of population: poorly educated, elderly, residents of small towns and villages and as a result – with low income. This tendency doesn’t prove in Belarus, as Table 4 shows.

Table 4. Socio-demographic characteristics of the Belarusian society depending on attitude to authorities*, %

* Table is read across

Distribution in gender springs the first surprise. The ratio of women and men in Russia is 1.17 : 1 while it is much higher in the group of politically indifferent – 1.70 : 1 which seems quite logic, since interest in the politics is more a business for men. Yet, not in Belarus! The same indicators have the following ratio here – 1.19 : 1 and 1.12: 1. In other words, this difference is not as considerable as in Russia. In regards to all other socio-demographic indicators, the tendency is as well the same in this group. In Belarus, people in their active age are politically more indifferent than pensioners, graduates of high schools yield to those who failed to graduate from secondary school and residents of Minsk appear by 10 points more indifferent to politics than villagers. This paradox is completed by a reverse dependence, as compared to Russia, on per capita income in a family, yet difference between marginal groups is insignificant in this case.

To explain the above paradox, we shall once again turn to R. Gromova: “these characteristics [socio-demographic] influence to a greater extent the very presence or absence of interest to political issues and to a much lesser extent – the form of perception of these issues.” To remind, respondents were asked the question “Some people place themselves among supporters and other – among opponents of the current authorities. To what group do you relate yourself?” which served an indicator for dividing them into three groups. This question itself is strongly politicized (and this is why we chose it) but in Belarus it immediately mobilizes A. Lukashenko’s marginal supporters. Although in general their interest to politics is not intense, in this case they feel very confident and this is why get into the group of convinced supporters of authorities. The group of politically indifferent, unlike in Russia, consists of disappointed intellectuals mainly.

In conclusion, we should like to come back to A. Lukashenko’s sensational statement: how grounded are his claims for support of 93-95% of voters? The analysis shows that these figures are more likely the result of president’s fantasy rather than true election results. According to the Central Election Commission, 7.1% of Belarusians didn’t come to voting. As the results of independent opinion polls show, this is close to reality (9-10%). The survey of the politically indifferent within the Belarusian society agrees with such a result. We should like to underline that this group (26%) was registered six months after the presidential campaign. Of course, the number of such citizens goes down during the electoral mobilization but the core remains. It is free from influence of PR technologies. Apart from the politically indifferent, there are also opponents of the authoritarian power in Belarus which means opponents of A. Lukashenko personally which is quite significant.