If we analyze answers of respondents for the past ten years to the question about the economics model they prefer, we will see surprising stability of the market economy supporters. As Table 1 shows, about two thirds of adult population preferred the market economy during all this period.
At the same time, the number of planned economy adherents has gone down 2.3-fold over this period and it is possible to say that only every seventh adult Belarusian is nowadays a supporter of socialist economic model. This is twice as little as the number of pensioners.
The ratio of economic model supporters shows, according to Table 1, that the market with insignificant state control (liberal model) has 1.25-fold more adherents than the market with significant state control (social-democratic model). In other words, the economic model of market socialism implemented by the authorities and ardently propagated by them is not very popular among the Belarusians – less than 30%. On the contrary, drawbacks of state-controlled economy gradually increase, of course with certain fluctuations, preference to the liberal economic model. At least, supporters of this economic model have gone up by 22% for ten years.
Table 1. Dynamics of choice by respondents of the economic model they prefer for the country, %
| Preferred economic model |
06’97 |
08’01 |
04’02 |
06’04 |
06’06 |
01’07 |
| Market economy |
65.4 |
57.6 |
61.8 |
62.2 |
63.6 |
66.6 |
| Among them: – with insignificant state control – with significant state control |
30.4 |
33.3 |
40.5 |
43.6 |
34.8 |
37.0 |
| Planned economy |
30.3 |
18.2 |
18.3 |
15.3 |
13.2 |
13.0 |
| Other economic model |
1.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
Preference of market economy is also proved in answers of respondents to the question about efficiency of different forms of ownership. According to Table 2, the number of those who think that private ownership is more efficient than state ownership has increased by 11% (47.0 : 42.5 х 100 – 100) over this period. The number of those who stick to the opposite viewpoint has decreased by the same 11% (39.7 : 44.8 х 100 – 100).
Table 2. Dynamics of opinion among respondents about the most efficient form of ownership, %
| Variant of answer |
06’96 |
08’00 |
08’01 |
04’02 |
06’06 |
01’07 |
| Private |
42.5 |
51.3 |
44.7 |
54.1 |
46.4 |
47.0 |
| State |
44.8 |
40.6 |
40.8 |
33.4 |
39.0 |
39.7 |
| Other |
11.2 |
5.8 |
2.2 |
3.7 |
5.8 |
5.6 |
However, not everything is that simple under the current Belarusian conditions. Thus, data in Table 3 show that during the first five years the number of citizens willing to work for private companies gradually increased and by the end of 2002 exceeded the number of citizens giving preference to the public sector while in the second half of the period under review this tendency changed mirror-like. Today the ratio of preferred sectors is the same as ten years ago. The reason is the economic policy carried by authorities as it impedes normal market relations: conditions of work are constantly aggravating for the private sector while the public sector is constantly given every possible support on the part of the government. This is well reflected in changing preferences of the population.
Table 3. Dynamics of opinion among respondents about the desired enterprise to work at, %
| Variant of answer |
11’97 |
04’00 |
10’01 |
12’02 |
06’06 |
01’07 |
| State-run |
53.5 |
48.9 |
42.3 |
43.5 |
52.0 |
50.0 |
| Private |
35.7 |
40.0 |
42.6 |
49.5 |
33.0 |
34.0 |
| Other |
4.5 |
6.5 |
3.1 |
4.1 |
2.7 |
4.8 |
Similar is the dynamics of opinion that respondents gave on the state control of prices for goods and services. As Table 4 shows, in the first half of this ten-year period the part of adherents of state-controlled pricing was going steadily down and reached 60% by the end of 2002. From then on it showed as well steady growth. Although it hasn’t reached the figures of ten years back, the tendency is obvious: in the conditions when the state actively interferes into economic processes including pricing, traditionally poor comprehension by population of economic self-righting in the market environment has been growing.
Table 4. Dynamics of answer distribution to the question “Do you think the state should regulate prices for goods and services?”, %
| Variant of answer |
06’97 |
06’99 |
10’01 |
12’02 |
06’06 |
01’07 |
| Yes |
80.9 |
71.1 |
67.6 |
60.1 |
71.7 |
73.4 |
|
No |
9.6 |
13.5 |
22.4 |
30.2 |
20.7 |
19.5 |
The analysis reveals that prevailing among supporters of liberal economic model are male respondents, young (74.8% below 50) and better educated respondents, private sector employees as well as city residents. The majority of them assume that they benefited from country’s independence, they don’t trust to the president, voted in 2004 against giving right to A. Lukashenko to run for presidency for more than two consecutive terms and voted in 2006 for his rivals. Instead of integrating with Russia, most of them would prefer accession to the EU. Finally, their incomes are much higher than average around the country.
As regards supporters of state control in economics, these are mostly female respondents, almost equally young and elderly, mostly town and village residents. Every third of them is a pensioner. In their majority, they believe that they benefited from independence of Belarus, they trust to the president, supported A. Lukashenko’s proposal at the referendum of 2004 and voted for him at the latest presidential election. They prefer integration with Russia rather than accession to the EU. Their incomes are average around the country.
Adherents of planned economics are female respondents by two thirds, mostly elderly (75.5% over 50) and poorly educated, pensioners by 41%, and village residents. The majority of them think that they lost from country’s independence. Nevertheless, they trust to the president, voted in 2004 to give him right be re-elected anew and voted for his presidency at the election of 2006. Two thirds of them wish that Belarus merge into Russia. Their incomes are considerably below average.
If we compare social characterizes of these three groups, we’ll see that the difference is especially radical between the first and the second ones. It is so big that uniting them into a single group of market economy supporters will make no sense. For the first, market is a liberal economic environment providing normal living conditions in accordance with capabilities, professional skills and experience. For the second, this is a way to live comfortably due to re-allocation of national product by the state into their favor.
The third are obvious outsiders whose number is getting less and less every year. Their ideals are in the past and they failed to adapt to the new life.