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POLITICIZED MERCY

In August political prisoners such as former presidential contender A. Kozulin, youth activist A. Kim and businessman S. Parsukevich were unexpectedly released from the Belarusian jails. Their discharge was preceded by numerous efforts on the part of the West. As an example let us remind that exactly the refusal of A. Lukashenko to release prisoners of conscience led to the “diplomatic war” between Belarus and the USA.

The subject of political prisoners’ release was one of the most important ones for the non-governmental mass media during the whole period of their custody. Due to some understandable reasons state mass media simply did not notice the problem; that is why it is not surprising that in the split up Belarusian society opinions of the respondents regarding the reasons for A. Kozulin’s discharge were divided (Table 1).

Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “What, in your opinion, has called forth the recent decision of the authorities to release from custody Alexander Kozulin, the former presidential contender, ahead of time?”, (more than one answer is possible)

Variant of answer

%

It is an act of mercy

33.2

The authorities yielded to the pressure of the West

18.2

The authorities demonstrated to Russia their readiness to collaborate with the West

15.2

The authorities yielded to the pressure of the opposition

12.7

Other

1.7

DA

22.2

A high share of the respondents who found it difficult to answer pays attention to itself. To all appearances it is a direct result of the state mass media “silence”. It was difficult for the Belarusian citizens supporting the authorities to choose an opinion “of their own” about the given question under the conditions of absence of a habitual prompting. However, in spite of such a considerable difficulty many out of them managed to cope with the task, nevertheless. They were guided by their political aims and that is why explained the discharge of the former presidential contender by the mercy of the authorities. It stands to reason they could not assume that the “people’s” authorities made their decisions under the pressure of the West, to say nothing about the opposition.

Other three variants of the answers were supported by the respondents approximately equally. All in all they got 47.1% of votes, which was quite close to the result registered in June of 2008 when respondents were answering the questions about the motive of A. Kozulin’s arrest – 39.5% believed at that time that he “had been convicted due to political reasons”.

The political basis of A. Kozulin’s discharge can be clearly traced if we analyze the answers of the respondents depending on their gender, age and level of education (Table 2). One would think it quite natural that women see in the fact of discharge an act of mercy more often than men, although the difference is not significant (6.2 percentage points); however the difference in assessment between the outermost age groups of the respondents is already considerable (15 points). It is still higher for the groups which find themselves at the opposite sides of the education scale (19 points).

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: ” What, in your opinion, has called forth the recent decision of the authorities to release from custody Alexander Kozulin, the former presidential contender, ahead of time?” depending on socio-demographic characteristics, %

Characteristics

An act of mercy

Pressure of the West

A signal of Russia

Pressure of the opposition

Gender:
Male

29.8

21.3

18.6

13.2

Female

36.0

15.6

12.2

12.2

Age:
18-29 years old

30.1

21.4

14.5

15.7

30-39 years old

25.9

22.6

20.3

14.6

40-49 years old

31.6

19.3

17.5

11.7

50-59 years old

28.3

15.7

17.8

15.7

60 years old and older

45.1

12.4

8.8

8.0

Education:
Primary

47.2

4.0

13.1

2.8

Incomplete secondary

38.2

14.2

8.4

12.3

Secondary

31.6

17.1

15.1

14.2

Vocational

28.8

25.1

18.2

13.7

Higher

28.2

24.4

18.6

15.3

All this is a sure sign of the question political nature, and that is why there is nothing surprising in the fact that among those who trust A. Lukashenko 42.7% of the respondents have chosen the variant of answer “It is an act of mercy”. However, among those who do not trust the head of the Belarusian state there turned out to be two times fewer people inclined to consider the discharge an act of mercy – 21.8%. On the other hand, they have almost triple superiority as far as the variant of answer “The authorities have yielded to the pressure of the West” is concerned – 29.3% vs. 10.8%.

The quoted data let us draw the following conclusion: absence of clear informational signals on the part of the authorities throws into confusion a considerable part of their supporters. The more “sophisticated” in their judgments supporters of the authorities never run counter “the father” and his policy.