WHERE IS THE HAND OF THE SOCIAL BAROMETER POINTING AT?

The hand of the barometer registering self-sensation of the Belarusian society slowly but persistently is bending to the point “clear”. The shock caused by the rise in prices at the end of 2007 judging by the answers to the question “In what way has your personal financial position changed for the last three months?” is finally overcome (Table 1). Not in the last place such overcoming is connected with the ability of the society to adapt itself to the changed conditions. For the majority of the Belarusians adaptation is the basic social strategy. They are used to answering to the outside changes in a reactive manner not even trying to engage in search for active life alternatives.

Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “In what way has your personal financial position changed for the last three months?”, %

However, for the sake of objectivity one should mention that a certain progress in economy began to show in the second part of the year. First of all, inflation decreased considerably. In August according to the data of the Ministry of statistics and analysis prices grew only 0.2%; although for eight months their growth turned out to be impressive – 8.3% (the annual inflation rate for 2008 was planned within the bounds of 6-8%). Secondly, one should not forget about the parliamentary elections. By the existing tradition it is customary in Belarus to celebrate the festival of the nation-wide voting by salaries growth and, most important, by pension’s growth. Let us quote the official data: the real gross payroll (salaries, calculated taking into consideration the growth of consumer prices for goods and services) from January to July of 2008 in comparison with the period from January to July of 2007 grew by 8.4%. At that attention should be paid to the following: in July in comparison with June salaries increased by 2.7%. As for the pensioners, the main electoral supporters of the authorities, the rate of pension’s growth turned out to be still higher: in August of 2008 in comparison with August of 2007 it increased by 19.6%, and in comparison with July – by 11.3%.

To confirm the contribution of the pensioners in positive dynamics registered in Table 1, let us analyze the results of the last two opinion polls, and for this purpose let us “distribute” the overall indices according to the gender and age (Table 2).

Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “In what way has your personal financial position changed for the last three months?” depending on gender and age, %

As it can be seen, if in June men and women perceived changes in their financial position virtually in an equal manner what would seem to be quite natural, than in September the Belarusian economy obviously infringed the principle of gender equality. The reason for it becomes clear if we compare changes that have occurred in age groups.

Respondents of two older age groups felt improvement of their financial position (women in Belarus retire on a pension at the age of 55, that is why in the age group from 50 up to 59 years of age the share of pensioners is quite high), while in the most economically active age group (from 30 up to 39 years of age) on the contrary the share of those who registered worsening of their financial position has considerably grown. In addition, if we take into account the fact that women live on average 12.5 years longer than men in Belarus, gender stratification of perception of changes in financial position becomes clear.

The same factor also told upon the answers to the question of Table 1 depending on the level of education. Whereas among the respondents with primary education (and these are mainly pensioners) the share of those who had registered improvement of their financial position increased 12.6 percentage points, among the respondents with higher education it on the contrary decreased 6.1 percentage points. Thus we can once again state that ponderable role, which a social contract “singed” between the authorities and the citizens of the pension age plays in the “Belarusian economic model”.

Dynamics registered in Table 1 are not accidental. They confirm the general tendency which developed in Belarus in 2008. In support of the given statement let us quote two more trends traditional for the IISEPS researches. As it follows from Tables 3-4 the peak level of 2006, the most successful for the Belarusians, has not been reached yet in the positive variants of the answers; however, the general tendency of the social barometer hand movement to the “clear” point is drawing up quite convincingly.

Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “How is socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus in the coming years?”, %

Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: “In your opinion, is the state of affairs in our country developing in general in the right or in the wrong direction?”, %

Answers to the question: “To what extent are you satisfied with the present living conditions in Belarus?” should be regarded as a logical result of the registered changes. The share of those who are completely satisfied turned out to be quite high – 15.6%. If we add to it the share of those who are more likely satisfied than unsatisfied (and this makes 40.1%) than it turns out that the absolute majority of the citizens – 55.7% – are satisfied with the living conditions in the country to this or that extent. The share of those who are not satisfied, taking into consideration 2.9% of those who found it difficult to answer, makes up 41.1% (completely unsatisfied are 10.3%, and more likely unsatisfied than satisfied are 31.1%).

Everything mentioned above should be regarded as the social background against which another election campaign expanded. It is obvious, that in the presence of such “arithmetic” the Belarusian authorities were not supposed to experience any serious inner problems for obtaining another “elegant” electoral victory.

There is nothing surprising in the fact that the share of the Belarusians declaring their readiness to take part in protest actions has decreased by autumn (Table 5). Let us remind that the matter in particular concerns the declared readiness – “Feeble and scattered discontent” (an expression of Yu. Levada, a Russian sociologist) does not directly transform to political actions. One should remember that social feelings which dictate many respondents the choice of “negative” variants of answers and feelings able to turn into actions are, as they say it in Odessa, “two big differences”. And these differences by no means come to the depth of the feelings.

Table 5. Dynamics of answering the question: “If protest actions against worsening of the economic position take place in your town (district) are you ready to take part in them?”, %

Strictly speaking, the authorities in their time made the social contract mentioned above not with the society, but with individuals (“social egoists”), who at the same time strive for realization of their egoism in the sphere of material consumption, rather than in the sphere of political freedoms. The economic growth of the last years contributed to a considerable strengthening of the given contract; at that both sides are interested in its constant prolongation.

The result of such prolongation in the first place becomes apparent in de-politicization and fragmentation of the society which is constantly being registered in the course of opinion polls conducting.

For the sake of supporting everything mentioned above let us cite sociologist B. Dubin: “An adaptable society could only be a fragmenting one. It is constantly braking to pieces, because the resources – which kind of belong to the first person, and this is also a part of the power structure – are limited; and the population believes that in such a situation it is not necessary to unite, but rather to separate as it is easier to survive on one’s own, separately…”

The data of Table 6 let us specify the main clauses of the “social contract”, the essence of which could also be viewed as an exchange of stability engrafted by the authorities for the political loyalty of “social egoists”. In the right-hand column the data for Russia are given for sake of comparison (“Levada-Center”, 2007).

Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question: “What does the concept “stability in the country” mean for you in the first place? “, % (more than one answer is possible)

* Rebirth of dignity and glory of Russia
** The given variant of answer was not offered

The variant of answer “A possibility to live decently on my salary or pension” found itself on the first line hors concourse. The second position of the variant “Overcoming of inflation and rise in prices” does not surprise us either: it is impossible to live decently on a salary or pension under the conditions of a considerable rise in prices. The Belarusians know about it not from reasoning of analysts, but from their own experience of the 90s of the previous century. However, only 10-11% of the respondents consider it a necessary condition to include into “the social contract” such notions as “freedom to express one’s opinion” and “freedom to choose work and place of residence”!

The difference of the first variant contribution into stability maintenance by the Belarusians and the Russians made up 20 percentage points. Apparently, it was entailed by the uncertainty of the Belarusians on account of their future under the circumstances of the constant rise in prices for energy carriers. This problem is not so relevant for the Russians due to some understandable reasons. They have their own “mindset” connected with the huge stratification of the population according to their incomings (see the variant “Absence of contrast between the life of the rich and the poor”).

The price of the Russian gas for Belarus for 2009 has not been defined yet. The haggling is going on, but it does not attract attention of “the social egoists”. They live on the principle of “here and now”, and in Belarus salaries and pensions are increasing “here and now”, hence the social contract signed in 1994 is being implemented.