The run of the three parts of the series “The Godfather” on the Russian channel NTV has become one of the most significant events in the Belarusian-Russian relations for the last months. Tough criticism towards A. Lukashenko, accusations of corruption and other crimes – everything which had been present in the pages of Belarusian opposition and western press before, was broadcasted by the Russian TV. It is possible to assume that the main goal of those who had ordered the series was not simply academic enlightening of Belarusian and Russian citizens, but rather changing of their attitude towards president of Belarus.
The data of the September opinion poll of 2010 let us evaluate the effect of this influence upon Belarusians (Tables 1-3).
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “Do you know about the movies “The Godfather”, “The Godfather-2” and “The Godfather-3″ about president of Belarus A. Lukashenko recently broadcasted by the Russian TV channel NTV?”
| Variant of answer |
% |
| Yes, I do |
50.6 |
| No, I do not |
48.7 |
| NA |
0.7 |
Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “Have you watched the movies yourself?”
| Variant of answer |
% |
| I have not watched any of them |
58.4 |
| I have watched all three movies |
11.8 |
| I have watched two movies |
7.3 |
| I have watched one movie |
10.6 |
| NA |
11.9 |
Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “If you know about the movies “The Godfather”, “The Godfather-2” and “The Godfather-3″, then how did you learn about them?” (more than one answer is possible)
| Variant of answer |
% |
| I watched them on a DVD |
10.9 |
| I watched them on TV |
10.0 |
| I watched them on the Internet |
10.0 |
| I had not watched the movies, but I learned about them from other mass media |
4.6 |
| I had not watched the movies, but I heard about them from my acquaintances, friends and relatives |
17.5 |
As it follows from the cited data, a half of the country learned about the movies one way or another. It is interesting to mention, that in July a Lithuanian research center Baltic Surveys conducted a telephone inquiry among the urban population concerning their attitude to the series (at that moment only two movies had gone on the air). 34.7% of the interrogated city dwellers answered then they were informed of the movies. Taking into account the fact that city dwellers are usually better informed than villagers, it should be said that spreading of information about the movies had made great progress during two months – according to the IISEPS data, in September every second resident of the country already knew about them.
At that, as it follows from Table 2, 29.7% of respondents have watched at least one of the movies. The knowledge of others is drawn from other sources, and as it can be seen from Table 3 mainly from the common talk. Such considerable value of this source (17.5%) testifies to the quite intensive circulation of information about the movies in the society – they were discussed, their contents were told to other people. And the fact that each tenth respondent watched the movies on a DVD is evidence of many people’s applying certain efforts in order to get information about them.
The data of Tables 4 and 5 show distribution of answers to the questions of Tables 2 and 3 among those who answered they were informed of the movies.
Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “Have you watched the movies yourself?” (among those who know about the movies)
| Variant of answer |
% |
| I have not watched any |
41.5 |
| I have watched all three movies |
23.3 |
| I have watched two movies |
14.2 |
| I have watched one movie |
20.9 |
Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question: “If you know about the movies “The Godfather”, “The Godfather-2” and “The Godfather-3″, then how did you learn about them?” (among those who know about the movies, more than one answer is possible)
| Variant of answer |
% |
| I watched them on a DVD |
19.7 |
| I have watched them on TV |
19.8 |
| I have watched them on the Internet |
21.5 |
| I had not watched the movies, but I learned about them from other mass media |
8.8 |
| I had not watched the movies, but I heard about them from my acquaintances, friends and relatives |
32.1 |
The data of Table 5 demonstrate the role of circulation of information about the movies still more obviously: among those who know about the movies almost every second person has not seen them personally.
Table 6 presents connection of knowledge about the movies with respondents’ socio-demographic characteristics.
Table 6. Connection of knowledge about the movies with some socio-demographic characteristics, %
| Characteristics |
Know about the movies |
| Gender: | |
| Male |
60.1 |
| Female |
42.4 |
| Age: | |
| 18-30 |
58.6 |
| 31-59 |
57.3 |
| 60 and older |
28.8 |
| Education: | |
| Primary |
26.6 |
| Incomplete secondary |
20.5 |
| Secondary |
51.5 |
| Vocational |
57.8 |
| Higher |
64.2 |
| Type of settlement: | |
| The capital – Minsk |
58.5 |
| A regional center |
52.9 |
| A city (over 50 thousand residents) |
43.7 |
| A town (fewer than 50 thousand residents) |
55.1 |
| A rural settlement |
45.4 |
As it was to be expected, among respondents of young and middle age, among town/city dwellers and men the share of those who know about the movies is noticeably larger, than on the average. There is almost a linear dependence on education: the higher its level is, the larger the share of those who know about the movies is.
In other words, a quite large part of the country’s population has learnt about the movies. However, what effect did this knowledge produce? What changes in political attitudes did it lead to? The data of Tables 7-10 give an idea about it.
Table 7. Distribution of answers to the question: “If you know the contents of the movies “The Godfather”, “The Godfather-2” and “The Godfather-3″, then how do you assess them?”
| Variant of answer |
% |
| It is the truth |
10.1 |
| It is mainly the truth |
13.3 |
| It is mainly not true |
7.7 |
| It is not true |
4.3 |
| DA/NA |
64.6 |
Table 8. Distribution of answers to the question: “If you know the contents of the movies “The Godfather”, “The Godfather-2” and “The Godfather-3″, then how do you assess them?” (among those who know about the movies)
| Variant of answer |
% |
| It is the truth |
19.8 |
| It is mainly the truth |
26.3 |
| It is mainly not true |
14.9 |
| It is not true |
8.2 |
| DA/NA |
30.8 |
Table 9. Distribution of answers to the question: “If you know the contents of the movies “The Godfather”, “The Godfather-2” and “The Godfather-3″, then did they influence your attitude towards president A. Lukashenko?”
| Variant of answer |
% |
| No, they did not. I treat him the way I used to |
27.5 |
| Yes, they did. I began to treat him worse |
10.1 |
| Yes, they did. I began to treat him better |
1.7 |
| DA/NA |
60.7 |
Table 10. Distribution of answers to the question: “If you know the contents of the movies “The Godfather”, “The Godfather-2” and “The Godfather-3″, then did they influence your attitude towards president A. Lukashenko?” (among those who know about the movies)
| Variant of answer |
% |
| No, they did not. I treat him the way I used to |
53.2 |
| Yes, they did. I began to treat him worse |
19.7 |
| Yes, they did. I began to treat him better |
3.4 |
| DA/NA |
23.7 |
As it can be seen, the assessments are rather mixed. However, they are all the same quite far from the version circulating in the pages of some newspapers that the movies have only added popularity and people’s love to the main character of the series. Among those who had watched “The Godfather” more people believed than did not believe the contents of the movies – 46.1% vs. 23.1%. The balance of political effect did not turn out to be in favor of the president, either: indeed 1.7 % of respondents (3.4% of those who knew the contents of the movies) had begun to treat him better; however, there were several times more of those who had begun to treat him worse.
Table 11. Connection between the assessment of the contents and knowledge about the movies*, %
| Variant of answer |
Not true |
Mainly not true |
Mainly true |
The truth |
DA/NA |
| Has watched none of the movies |
3.1 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
2.2 |
85.8 |
| Has watched all three movies |
6.1 |
11.1 |
35.6 |
41.7 |
5.5 |
| Has watched two movies |
9.7 |
17.7 |
37.2 |
24.8 |
10.6 |
| Has watched one movie |
9.3 |
23.0 |
35.4 |
19.3 |
13.0 |
* The table is read across
The data of Table 11 obviously prove that the higher the intensity of movies “consumption” is, the more trustworthy their contents are. At that there is a linear dependence: the more episodes the respondents have watched, the larger the share of those, who think that the contents of movies are the real truth, is.
Connection between confidence in the contents of the movies and the declared change in the attitude towards the president also looks quite natural (Table 12).
Table 12. Connection between the assessment of movies contents truthfulness and the change in the attitude towards president*, %
| Variant of answer |
Better |
Has not changed |
Worse |
DA/NA |
| It is not true |
20 |
73.8 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
| It is mainly not true |
6.8 |
83.8 |
7.7 |
1.7 |
| It is mainly the truth |
2.5 |
59.8 |
34.3 |
3.4 |
| It is the truth |
0 |
57.1 |
42.9 |
0 |
| DA/NA |
0 |
31.2 |
2.1 |
66.7 |
* The table is read across
Among those who did not trust the contents of the movies the balance of improvement and worsening of the attitude to the president proved to be in favor of improvement. Amongst them the share of those who were imbued with sympathy towards the “defamed” president turned out to be larger than the share of those who began to treat him worse. However, among those who believed in the contents of the movies the balance of change of the attitude towards A. Lukashenko turned out to be the opposite. It should be noted, nevertheless, that even among them more than a half of respondents did not change their attitude towards the hero of the series.
In order to describe the true aftereffect of the series, one should take into account that even before its appearance not all Belarusians admired the head of state. And it may well be so that the movies only strengthened political attitudes of these people: those who had not felt any particular sympathy to A. Lukashenko before believed them, and those for whom he had been a political hero did not.
Table 13. Connection between the assessment of the movies “The Godfather” truthfulness and the answers to the question what kind of person future president should be *, %
| Variant of answer |
“How do you assess the contents of the movies “The Godfather”?” |
|||
|
Not true |
Mainly not true |
Mainly true |
The truth |
|
| A supporter of the present-day policy continuation |
7.2 |
8.2 |
3.8 |
1.4 |
| A supporter of the present-day policy cardinal change |
1.8 |
7.6 |
22.7 |
20.8 |
| It does not matter |
3.4 |
6.7 |
11.6 |
3.0 |
| A supporter of further integration with Russia |
5.8 |
4.5 |
7.9 |
2.4 |
| A supporter of further rapprochement with the European Union |
2.7 |
8.9 |
17.4 |
19.3 |
| It does not matter |
5.1 |
8.7 |
13.0 |
4.9 |
| A supporter of planned economy |
4.9 |
9.0 |
4.0 |
1.8 |
| A supporter of market economy |
3.9 |
7.7 |
19.0 |
14.9 |
| It does not matter |
4.6 |
7.5 |
6.4 |
2.8 |
| A supporter of presidential power consolidation |
6.4 |
7.5 |
4.9 |
2.0 |
| A supporter of powers separation |
3.0 |
7.8 |
22.4 |
19.1 |
| It does not matter |
3.4 |
7.6 |
8.1 |
3.9 |
* The table is read across
The data of Table 13 show that respondents whose political views and attitudes are alternative to those of A. Lukashenko, were much more inclined to believe the contents of the movies “The Godfather”. The above-mentioned confirms that the message contained in the movies was to a considerable extent apprehended by the people, who anyway had not supported the incumbent president of Belarus before.
Table 14 indicates how the change of attitude to the television series “hero” influenced readiness to vote for him at the presidential elections.
Table 14. Connection of change in the attitude towards A. Lukashenko under the influence of the movies “The Godfather”, trust in him and readiness to vote for him, %
| Variant of answer |
“Do you trust the president?” |
“Whom would you vote for at the presidential elections?” |
|
|
Yes |
No |
For A. Lukashenko |
|
| The attitude became better |
76.0 |
16.0 |
57.7 |
| The attitude did not change |
43.3 |
49.5 |
27.4 |
| The attitude became worse |
16.9 |
73.4 |
3.9 |
| DA/NA |
52.9 |
29.4 |
42.9 |
* The table is read across
As it can be seen, the data of Table 14 let us talk about a certain political effect of the series “The Godfather”: respondents who having received information about the movies declared a change in their attitude towards president demonstrated in the majority of cases an attitude corresponding to the change. Those who said that their attitude had improved put a lot of trust in A. Lukashenko and expressed their readiness to vote for him. Those whose attitude to him had become worse mainly expressed their distrust in the president and unwillingness to vote for him.
So long as the ratio of those who declared that they had begun to treat A. Lukashenko better and worse is in favor of the latter, it is possible to ascertain that the movies succeeded to a certain extent and caused image losses to A. Lukashenko which constituted several percentage points. On the other hand, since the share of those who announced that they had begun to treat the president worse is comparatively not large, it is possible that the losses turned out to be smaller than the ones counted upon by the creators and ordering customers of the series.