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TO THE WORLD LEVEL! PASSING THE EUROPEAN ONE…

Speaking at the press conference for the representatives of the Russian regional mass media on October, 1 A. Lukashenko defined the electoral resource of the opposition candidates as 100-150 thousand people. According to him, the opposition group of activists includes 400 people, and the number of the prospective meetings participants does not exceed 800 people. The Central Election Committee accountable to the head of state gives a different figure. In accordance with the official report posted on the website of the CEC, 552 888 electors (5.7% of all who voted) voted for A. Kozulin and A. Milinkevich at the presidential elections of 2006.

The IISEPS has different voting data. The poll held immediately after the presidential elections of 2006 registered support of the opposition candidates at the level of 26% (of the number of respondents) or 28% (of the number of those who had participated in voting).

However, the limit of 100-150 thousand defined by A. Lukashenko for the opposition has not been pulled out of a hat. In his opinion, it is the minimum which does not spoil the general picture of the “Belarusian people’s unity” and lets him remain in the rank of the “only political figure” expressing the national interests. All the rest are attributed to the category of “goons” and “people’s enemies” as they do not express anybody’s interests.

The data of Table 1 present the structure of the “only Belarusian political figure’s” support from the point of view of the public opinion. It has not changed in essence for the last three years. A. Lukashenko has not lost his supporters; however, he has not acquired any new ones either. He still relies on the members of the top brass, pensioners and bureaucrats. Relative to the previous year the role of bureaucrats and pensioners as the head’s of state support has increased by 7.6 and 7.3 percentage points. Countrymen have also added 6.6 points. It is difficult to say, why the public opinion singled out people wearing shoulder straps – they have not made themselves much noticed on the state TV channels recently. As for the pensioners, it is a direct consequence of the pensions rise. The head of state also paid attention to villagers – the drought in Russia favored the fact.

Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “Who, in your opinion, does A. Lukashenko mainly rely on?”, % (more than one answer is possible)

Variant of answer

08’06

09’09

09’10

All respondents

Trust A. Lukashenko

Do not trust A. Lukashenko

On the presidential top-down command structure

37.0

39.7

39.3

33.7

46.3

On the military men, the Ministry of the Interior, the KGB

48.6

37.8

45.4

39.0

55.0

On pensioners

41.4

37.7

45.0

45.1

45.3

On state officials

20.5

27.2

27.7

22.8

33.3

On common people

34.2

24.1

24.2

37.1

10.1

On countrymen

30.2

23.8

30.2

32.3

27.7

On directors of large enterprises

13.5

12.8

13.4

12.7

15.3

On specialists

9.9

8.4

8.5

13.8

2.3

On the cultural and scientific elite

8.3

4.0

4.6

7.1

2.0

On businessmen

4.5

2.2

3.5

4.0

2.4

As for the professional groups which traditionally occupy the last lines in the “support rating”, they have remained the way they used to be. Even the world financial and economic crisis did not help them. A state official has always been and still remains the main subject of the “Belarusian economic model”. The destiny of modernization of the economic structure (and by that they mean “transition to a higher technological level of manufacture, wide introduction of innovation into all spheres” called upon “to provide higher competitiveness in the world not only of the Belarusian produce, but of the country as a whole” (a report at the VI congress of the Trade Union Federation of Belarus)) is directly related to his creative abilities.

The growth of people’s life quality up to the level of “the most advanced countries of our world” should become the outcome of such creative ideas. In 2006 at the third All-Belarusian Assembly achieving the European standard of life within the next five years was at issue. Today this task is not urgent any more. There is a new summit ahead, and the union of members of the top brass, bureaucrats and pensioners will have to conquer it.