POLITICAL APATHY AS A STABILITY FACTOR

In spite of the notion spread in our daily life, a decrease in the population’s income does not lead to a growth in the protest moods. This political science axiom is being mastered with difficulty by the expert community in Belarus. Hopes for a “hot” autumn, which once again were not fated to come true, follow from here (Table 1). Formally, the number of those who proclaimed their readiness to participate in protest actions proved to be even smaller than in December 2008 when the situation in the country had begun to take a turn for the worse under the influence of the world financial crisis.

Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “If protest actions against worsening of the economic situation take place in your town (district), are you ready to participate in them?”, %

Belarusian society, just as its cultural and geographical neighbor Russian society, can be in two states – sleeping and excited. The December events in Russia showed that several days were enough for transition from the former state to the latter. A ridiculous according to the Belarusian standards level of votes rigging in the course of the parliamentary elections (in the opinion of L. Gudkov, director of the Levada-center, it did not exceed the habitual 5-8%) was the reason for tens of thousands of Muscovites to walk into the square. However, we would not recommend interpreting the Russian experience in terms of Belarusian reality. As contrasted with the consolidated Belarusian authoritarianism, mild (unconsolidated) authoritarianism came into being in Russia under V. Putin. The very fact of the duo presence played a considerable part in rocking the political boat. Nothing of the kind is being observed in Belarus today.

The data of Table 2 confirm the conclusion drawn on the grounds of analyzing Table 1. Attention should be paid to the following: the share of respondents who had declared their readiness to participate in meetings and pickets coincided with the share of those who had expressed their desire to support actions against worsening of the economic situation. However, in the year of the third presidential elections at the peak of the growth in the population’s income, there number of potential participants in protest actions was the same.

Table 2. Dynamics of readiness to participate in public protest actions, %

A decrease in the share of citizens in opposition to the authorities occurred within the framework of the general tendency of the positive moods’ growth (Table 3). During the “zero” years their number had never exceeded 20%, and in September of the previous year came close to 30%, but to find itself on the wrong side of thirty proved to be beyond its power. If Belarusian society is divided into the pro-Lukashenko “majority” and anti-Lukashenko “minority” not according to the criterion of trust/distrust in A. Lukashenko, but according to the opposition attitude criterion, then in September of the previous year the society structure usual for a sleeping state also preserved its original appearance.

Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you consider yourself to be in opposition to the present authorities?”, %

Without expressing a personal desire to take part in protest actions, Belarusians are not averse to supporting those who are ready to participate in them. It is an open issue how this support can be expressed, but 16.8% definitely support the people, who publicly protest against the actions of the authorities, 26.9% – more likely support them (43.7% in the aggregate). 19% definitely do not support protesters, 21.1% – more likely do not support them (40.1% altogether), and 16.2% found it difficult to answer.

Unpopularity among Belarusians of non-violent mass actions which the political opposition has laid stress on for years of its work, is confirmed by the answers to the question: “If the authorities do not meet the requirements of people, then by what means should they be changed, in your opinion?” (Table 4). Almost every third Belarusian believes in the possibility to change the authorities by means of elections, another 20.2% pin their hopes on a referendum. The number of supporters of the Jesuits’ motto “the end justifies the means”, who suppose that any actions would do for the sake of changing the regime, is the same in the country. For tolerant Belarusians used to living outside the legal terrain such an answer looks rather natural. However, concrete protest actions are not much sought after.

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “If the authorities do not meet the requirements of people, then by what means should they be changed, in your opinion?”

In 2012 Belarusians will have to participate in an election campaign once again. This time it is going to be a parliamentary election campaign. Once again the party opposition is facing Hamlet’s question: to participate in the elections (to be) or to boycott them (not to be). As for the society, in December 11.6% of respondents treated the idea of a boycott positively (Table 5). However, it is according to the whole sampling. If we take into account the split of Belarusian society, then among opponents of the authorities every third respondent is ready to boycott the parliamentary elections. There is no doubt that if leaders of political parties have a common opinion about the boycott, the share of the boycott’s supporters among adversaries of the authorities may grow considerably.

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question: “What is your attitude to boycotting the forthcoming parliamentary elections which a part of the opposition is calling to?”,%

Answers to the question: “Some people think that parliamentary elections can change the situation in the country for the better, others do not agree with it. And what is your opinion?” bring grist to the boycott’s mill. The answers show that 55.1% of respondents (77.6% among opponents of the authorities) consider that parliamentary elections cannot change the situation in the country for the better, and 23.2% stick to the opposite point of view (11.7% among opponents of the authorities).

The “People’s gathering” has become perhaps the main protest event after the summer “silent actions”. Contrary to the expectations of its organizers it did not gather an appreciable number of participants. Nevertheless, almost every third Belarusian (31.9%) was aware of its holding on October 8. Attitude of respondents to the resolution adopted at the “People’s gathering” is presented in Table 6. It raises no doubts that the overwhelming majority of respondents supported suggestions about arresting of the rise in prices, as well as adjustment of salaries and pensions. More than two thirds also supported securing of a possibility to freely buy hard currency. Taking into account the level of dollarization of Belarusian economy, it was difficult to expect anything different. However, the destiny of political prisoners turned out to make no difference to a third of respondents. Virtually half of them declared for holding of new free presidential and parliamentary elections, which indirectly confirms the fall of the authorities’ legitimacy under the conditions of the current crisis.

Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question: “Participants of the “People’s gathering“ adopted some resolutions and turned them over to the authorities. What is your attitude to the resolutions?”

The crisis showed that as before apolitical citizens remain the social basis of the authorities in Belarus. Dissatisfaction with the economic situation decreased the level of trust in the power-holding institutions, but did not lead to a parallel growth in protest moods. No need for alternative leaders and ideas appeared. Under the established conditions some disinflation was enough for a growth in positive moods by the society. Taking into account the fact that from the beginning of 2012 the price for the Russian gas is going to be decreased almost two-fold, the state will be given an extra chance to concentrate under its “roof” financial resources which as usual will be spent on buying votes during parliamentary elections. If no force maj?ur happens (considering the condition of the world economy, such a possibility is rather serious), then the growth in positive moods registered in December might continue.