PERSONAL OPTIMISM AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF PUBLIC PESSIMISM

In the opinion of the overwhelming majority of Belarusians the year of 2011 turned out to be more difficult than the previous one (Table 1). A. Lukashenko also supported the assessment in the course of the press conference for the Belarusian and foreign mass media on December 23: “I would not want such a year to repeat itself once again in the history of our country. It was a very difficult year”. It is not surprising that supporters and opponents of the authorities agreed with the assessment to almost the same degree: 71% and 79.8% respectively. The number of those who managed to discern a reason for optimism with the three-digit inflation did not exceed statistical discrepancy. During the year of the world financial crisis there were three times more of optimistic answers.

Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “Was the year of 2011 more difficult or easier for Belarus in comparison with the previous year?”, %

Estimating the time limits of the present crisis 24.7% of Belarusians suppose that the worst is already behind and some improvement is setting in, 56.8% are not so optimistic and hence expect intensification of the crisis in the coming year. Another 10.0% interpreted the crisis as temporary difficulties that had been successfully overcome.

However, if the share of positive assessments on the “macro-level” turned out to be inconsiderable, then if we pass on to the “micro-level” everything looks not so gloomy. A third of respondents estimated the last year as successful for them personally (Table 2). It is 15.2 percentage points less than in 2009; nevertheless, one should recognize the opinion very popular among experts and politicians that 2011 was a disaster as inconsistent with reality.

Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “Was the year of 2011 in general successful or unsuccessful for you personally?”, %

As it follows from the data of Table 3, Belarusians with primary education are the only social group in which the balance of positive and negative assessments turned out to be positive. As for respondents who do not attribute themselves to opposition, their assessments were divided almost equally, while among their political opponents negative assessments exceeded positive ones three times. Everything is logical. Everywhere in the world the kernel of political opposition consists of citizens dissatisfied with their life. To some extent the reverse conclusion is also true, i.e. people in opposition to the authorities are also inclined to pessimistic assessments on the personal level.

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “Was the year of 2011 in general successful or unsuccessful for you personally?” depending on the socio-economic characteristics and attitude to the authorities, %

Let us refer to the first two lines of Table 3. It might seem that women should be the first to suffer from the rise in prices, as they usually shop more often than representatives of the stronger sex. However, the level of women’s opposition attitude in Belarus traditionally yields to the level of men’s opposition attitude which favors the growth of female optimism.

Dispersion in the distribution of assessments depending on age proved to be slight, especially among the negative assessments. In spite of the large number of the authorities’ supporters among elderly people, the last year’s crisis hit against pensioners to a greater extent than against the citizens of active working age. According to the official statistics if the real wages in October 2011 decreased by 9.5% relative to October 2010, then pensions decreased by 24.8%. This is the logic of the social policy of the authoritarian Belarusian state: the presidential elections have passed, the electoral Moor (pensioners) has done his duty, and the authorities have got an opportunity to save on pensions until the next election campaign.

What else, besides the rise in prices, the drop in wages and pensions, worried Belarusians during the “very difficult year”? The data of Table 4 let us answer this question. Answers to the open-end question when respondents were not offered any options are presented in the second column. When respondents answer open-end questions, the share of those who give answers is as a rule considerably smaller than when they answer close-end questions.

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “What problems besides the rise in prices, the drop in wages and pensions worry you personally and the majority of the population?”, % (more than one answer is possible)

* The open question

Anxiety concerning the future of one’s children and one’s own future, as well as the condition of the public health services, found themselves among the top three when respondents were answering close-end questions, taking into account the specific character of the question (variants of answer connected with the rise in prices, the drop of wages and pensions were excluded). When answering the open-end question, respondents placed anxiety concerning the condition of their personal health first – 14.5%, and anxiety regarding the level of the public health services ranked second. According to the frequency of mentioning, uneasiness with respect to the future ranked third and fourth. It can be ascertained that besides pecuniary problems, in the first place Belarusians worry about the condition of their own development and about the absence of life prospects for them personally and for their children.

The fear of a war turned out to be at the end of the list (0.3%) when respondents were answering the open-end question. Thus, the life credo of Belarusians “may anything happen, as long as there is no war” with the help of which some analysts are ready to explain almost any social fact proved to be a myth. Another myth is disapproval by the majority of the population of the contract system. Only 0.2% of respondents mentioned it.

It is interesting to note that answers in the first and the third columns differ slightly, i.e. respondents transfer their conceptions of problems to the whole society. It means that each individual perceives him- or herself as some averaged Belarusian who does not differ in essence from others (I am like everybody else). Such self-depersonalization increases inertness of the society. Belarusians are slow to start; however, having started once they are able, just like a pendulum, to move from one extreme to the other, what was actually observed in 1994.