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WANDERLUST

The latest IISEPS survey showed that emigration intentions of the population declined slightly in comparison with the 2011 crisis. The share of those who think of departure from Belarus for permanent residence decreased by five percentage points, and this change happened mainly due to the German direction (Table 1).

 

It is worth noticing that data from a survey conducted by the agency SATIO with the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (http://www.belinstitute.eu/ru/node/777) showed a much lower emigration potential – according to a poll carried out in late 2012 and early 2013, the share of those who were ready to emigrate was 15.1%. Apparently, the reason lays in the difference of question’s formulation: the question in the SATIO survey measured certain, real intentions, while the IISEPS survey measured the mood, a possible life option which respondents do not exclude for themselves. The data from Table 1 which reflect those who think about leaving from time to time show rather a respondent’s evaluation of their position in Belarus than a rate of practical emigration plans.
This point of view reveals which categories of people are more sensitive to this indicator (Table 2).
Table 2. Connection between answers to the question: “Would you like to move to another country provided you’d have such a possibility?” and socio-demographic characteristics and preferences*, %
Characteristics
Would like to emigrate
Wouldn’t like to move anywhere
Age:
18-29
65.2
28.9
30-59
42.4
47.6
60+
17.6
79.3
Gender:
Male
44.6
45.9
Female
35.8
57.6
Education:
Primary
19.8
79.2
Incomplete secondary
22.9
70.7
Secondary
43.8
48.5
Vocational
44.3
47.9
Higher
41.5
47.1
Are you involved with public activities?
Yes
58.8
36.2
No
35.6
55.8
How do you think, the state of things in our country is developing in a right or in a wrong direction?
In a right direction
29.3
65.8
In a wrong direction
50.3
41.8
Do you trust the President?
Yes
30.3
64.3
No
53.0
39.8
“People arrange their lives differently, they adapt themselves to the circumstances to a different extent. Which of the following statements describes your attitude to the current life in the most accurate way?”
I cannot adapt to the current life
45.7
48.3
I got used to the urge to abandon the habitual way of life, to live cutting down my big and small needs
35.8
56.8
I have to “dodge”, to take up any opportunity to earn some money, if only I want to provide a tolerable level of life for my family and myself
47.1
41.4
I managed to use new possibilities to achieve more in life
45.6
45.6
I live the same way as before, nothing really changed for me in the last years
34.8
59.8
* The table is read across
Many correlations are quite expected: it’s the youth that thinks of emigration more than others, men are more prone to such thoughts than women, more educated people are also more inclined to emigration than people with a low education level (though it should be noted that higher education doesn’t increase immigration sentiment in comparison with the average). Naturally enough there is a connection to political preferences and assessment of the country’s course– negative attitude to the head of state and to the country’s course promotes immigration sentiment.
Like a bitter paradox (but only for people who are not informed on the features of the situation in Belarus) looks the connection to the public activity: emigration is more frequently considered not by passive people, not by those whose relations with Belarusian society weakened, but on the contrary by those who are socially engaged and try to change something.
Connection to the self-assessment of the situation is not evident as well: emigration is considered equally often (more often than in average) by the losers (those who cannot adapt to the current situation) and by the winners (those who managed to achieve something). And those who have simply adapted to life situation or for whom nothing have changed consider emigration to a much smaller extent.
It was noted above that answers to the Table 1 question reflect rather a possible wish, than a real intention. At the same time the answers to the Table 3 question about labor migration of relatives concern a much more certain situation.

 

The data in Table 3 should not be interpreted to the effect that every fourth adult citizen of Belarus works abroad. The share of labor migration should be contributed not to the population but to the families. According to the census of 2009 there were 3.8 million households in Belarus. A quarter of them (about a million people) are working abroad, which is theoretically consistent with other estimations of the number of labor migrants.
The following Table 4 describes the directions of this labor migration.
The lion’s share of labor migrants work in Russia. It is interesting to note that this country attracts rather few people as a country of permanent residence (see Table 1).

 

Russia together with three neighboring countries drains 80% of the labor migration stream. Hence the wanderlust is not typical for Belarusians – for various reasons they don’t get too far even when they are leaving their homeland for the sake of earnings.