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IT’S DIFFICULT TO LIVE, BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO PUT UP WITH IT

The struggle between the growth of population’s income and prices hike for the right to form the national opinion is going on with varying success in 2013. The current results of this struggle are recorded in the social indices (Tables 1-3). Their changes during the last year and a half reminds of light ripples on a pond. In June they had simultaneously increased relatively to March, and in September they have decreased in the same simultaneous way.

Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “How has your personal financial standing changed for the last three months?”, %
Variant of answer
12’10
06’11
03’12
06’12
09’12
12’12
03’13
06’13
09’13
It has improved
24.9
1.6
15.3
12.8
14.7
17.4
13.3
13.7
11.6
It has not changed
57.7
23.2
43.4
54.7
58.8
54.0
56.4
63.1
63.9
It has become worse
16.0
73.4
40.6
31.9
25.0
26.7
28.7
21.6
21.6
FSI*
8.9
–71.8
–25.3
–19.1
–10.3
–9.3
–15.4
–7.9
–10.0
* Financial standing index (the difference of positive and negative answers)

Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “How is the socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus within the next few years?”, %

Variant of answer
12’10
06’11
03’12
06’12
09’12
12’12
03’13
06’13
09’13
It is going to improve
30.6
11.9
22.5
21.4
18.4
23.3
15.3
17.7
17.5
It is not going to change
40.7
20.3
34.4
38.5
43.6
34.6
44.7
49.1
46.7
It is going to become worse
17.2
55.5
32.7
30.4
27.8
29.7
27.3
23.7
28.1
EI*
13.4
–43.6
–10.2
–9.0
–9.4
–6.4
–12.0
–6.0
–10.6
* Expectation index

Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think the state of things is developing in our country in the right or in the wrong direction in general?”, %

Variant of answer
12’10
06’11
03’12
06’12
09’12
12’12
03’13
06’13
09’13
In the right direction
54.2
17.0
35.3
32.4
34.1
33.5
34.5
39.6
39.1
In the wrong direction
32.5
68.5
52.5
54.3
47.4
46.1
51.4
45.5
46.7
DA/NA
13.3
14.5
12.2
13.3
18.4
20.4
14.1
14.9
14.2
PCI*
21.7
–51.5
–17.2
–21.9
–13.3
–12.6
–16.9
–5.9
–7.6
* Policy correctness index
But since the historic minimums of 2011 neither the financial standing index (FSI) nor expectation index (EI) nor the policy correctness index (PCI) didn’t manage to leave the negative zone. This means that the part of Belarusian pessimists, who register the worsening of their financial position (Table 1), who await the worsening of the socio-economic situation in the country within the next year (Table 2) and who estimate that the country is developing in the wrong way, is invariably higher than the part of Belarusian optimists.
In our opinion, the fixation of social indices in the negative zone should be regarded as the main characteristic of Belarusian stability of the last years. Two-digit growth of the population’s income turned out to be powerless to change this. It is not complicated to suppose how social indices will conduct themselves in case of deceleration of the growth of population’s income. But if it comes to a real (and not nominal) reduction of salaries and pensions, then the absolute minimums, recorded in June-September of 2011, could be surpassed.
As a case of another characteristic of social stability model of 2013 we should mention high shares of respondents, who had chosen the variant “didn’t change”/”won’t change” while answering the questions of Tables 1-2. Therefore there should be no surprise that only 11.6% of respondents registered an improvement in their financial standing and the part of optimists, having confidence in the improvement of the socio-economic situation during the following years, not even hauled as far as a fifth.
Comparative stabilization of social indices affected the answers to the question “Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis?” as well (Table 4).The changes of last three month did not exceed the limit of the statistical error.

 

Crisis perception traditionally turned out to be extremely politically loaded. Among Belarusians trusting A. Lukashenko (46.7% in September) the share of those, who agree with the presence of crisis in the country amounted to 37.8%, while among those not trusting the head of the state (36.6% in September) this share amounted to 81.7%. This considerable difference in the answers of two groups gives evidence of the importance of subjective factors’ influence on reality perception. The list of subjective factors is traditionally topped by state TV, as it creates the “image” according to the state demand.
Table 5 data confirms the previous conclusion. In Belarus “everything’s not so bad and it’s possible to live”, but for whom? For the A. Lukashenko supporters in the first place. And it doesn’t matter that among those supporters are mainly the pensioners, who live on a paltry pension. Still they have enough money for bread and watery milk. So it’s possible to live!

Absolute majority of Belarusians complain about difficulties to live, but agree to put up with them. Every forth declare the impossibility to put up with it anymore, but we would not recommend to take their declarations for the readiness to perform real actions.
Let us mention that the structure of answers to the similar question by Russians (“Levada-Center”, July 2013) is similar to the structure of answers by Belarusians – 31%, 49%, 16% respectively. Thus we face the subjective factors once again. Though not Russians go to Belarus, but Belarusians in large numbers go to Russia to work, the difference in incomes inside the union state doesn’t considerable affect life perception in two countries.
The next question (Table 6) to some extent repeats the previous. From the numerous survival techniques modern Belarusians and Russians still choose the way of adaptation. Belarusians to a greater extent than Russians adapt to the changes by abandoning their habitual way of life (negative adaptation). Russians, on the contrary, prefer to “dodge” to support their way of life on a tolerable level. And only 7.5% of Belarusians and 10% of Russians manage to find new possibilities for improving their lives.

 

* “Levada-Center”, July 2013
Table 7 data permit to estimate adaptive abilities of Belarusians depending on gender, age, education and attitude towards the President A. Lukashenko.
Table 7. Distribution of answers to the question: “People arrange their lives differently, they adapt themselves to the circumstances to a different extent. Which of the following statements describes your attitude to the current life in the most accurate way?” depending on gender, age, education and attitude towards the president A. Lukashenko, %
Social groups
Did not adapt
Got used to
“Dodge”
Found new possibilities
Live as before
Gender:
Male
12.1
26.4
26.4
8.2
23.8
Female
8.4
27.1
23.4
7.0
31.6
Age:
18-29
8.9
20.1
33.5
7.4
26.4
30-39
11.5
23.0
30.1
11.2
22.3
40-49
10.9
25.7
29.2
7.7
24.6
50-59
11.4
30.4
22.1
9.5
23.6
60+
7.8
34.4
10.4
3.2
40.5
Education:
Primary
3.1
32.0
6.2
3.1
54.6
Incomplete secondary
9.6
31.2
10.8
3.8
40.8
Secondary
12.5
27.8
25.5
6.4
24.5
Vocational
10.5
27.4
27.1
7.6
23.8
Higher
7.6
19.7
33.4
13.1
24.8
Attitude towards A. Lukashenko
Trust
6.9
28.8
15.4
7.9
38.5
Don’t trust
15.0
24.8
36.7
6.7
14.1
* Table is read across
It’s more difficult to adapt to the modern life for men than for women, because not anyone can cope with the role of “material benefits getter”. Thus the stronger sex has to “dodge” more. However the difference between men and women in this nomination is not very important. Women are more inclined to be conservative, which is reflected in the fifth column.
Age is traditionally considered to be a strong factor influencing life strategies. The lot of the youth is to “dodge” and to look for new possibilities. The lot of older ones is to get used to life circumstances and to resist changes (to live as before).
Education, regardless of deserved criticism of its Belarusian model, remarkably raises odds for the search of new possibilities. But from those, who are given more, more is taken. So every third of the university diploma holder is obliged to “dodge”.
Among political opponents of A. Lukashenko those who are obliged to “dodge” are 2.4 times more numerous than among his supporters. Such a considerable difference is quite related to the age difference of politically loaded social groups.
The readiness to “put up” and other strategies of passive adaptation to the outer world still prevail in Belarusian society. The main merit belongs to the paternalistic state, interested in obedient homagers and not active citizens. Bit in the conditions of globalization a society and a state of homagers are noncompetitive. And they do understand it on the top of the command structure. Hence the constant appeals to struggle with the parasitic attitude and to switch everything still alive to self-sufficiency.