The truth comes through comparison. The data of Tables 1-2 give us this opportunity. The year with the unlucky number, the third year of the fourth five-year period, according to a half of respondents, was “the same, as the previous one” for Belarus, and this allowed the decrease of the level of positive and negative evaluations in comparison with 2012.
The global financial crisis of 2009 influenced negative estimations of Belarus (+8.6 points), but practically didn’t affect individual negative estimations (+2 points). This asymmetry is the evidence of a gap between the reality formed by mass media and the reality given to people in experience.
The crisis of 2011, unlike the crisis of 2009, was caused not by external, but by internal reasons, and that couldn’t but influence the information policy of state mass media. One thing is to criticize America for inability to maintain stability of the global financial system, and absolutely another – to criticize own employer (the head of state) for the triple devaluation of national currency.
But the gap between the reality on TV and the reality behind the window has its limits. In 2011these limits were more than surpassed. Hence the growth of negative estimations.
The socio-demographic portraits of Belarusians, who estimated the year 2013 in opposite ways, differ slightly. The year was successful for 47.2% of men and for 49.9% of women, for 53.4% of young people of the age of 18-29 years and for 49.3% of people of the retirement age (60 years and more), for 55.8% of Belarusians with primary education and for 53.1% of Belarusians with higher education. The negative estimations of people of the middle age (30-39 years) and of people with secondary education somewhat “necked down”– 46.2% and 44.4% respectively. But as it was sung in an old Soviet song, younger people have all the doors open, while elder people are held in high esteem. Therefore those who are not young already and not old yet have certain problems, both with the choice of a door, and with getting the esteem.
In 2009 with a similar level of positive estimations, the socio-demographic portrait of successful Belarusians was practically the same. But the estimations’ weak dependency on social and demographic characteristics doesn’t mean a lack of dependency on political preferences of Belarusians. In Belarus fortune smiles more often at those who trust A. Lukashenko: 57.1% – trust, 40.8% – don’t trust (2013); 53.3% – trust, 39.5% – don’t trust (2009).
In five years Belarusians survived two financial and economic crises and lived in the expectation of the third one during all the second half of 2013. Its probability, according to independent economists, is quite high. A. Lukashenko confirms this indirectly by constantly emphasizing the fact that the main task of the government for 2014 is to maintain the financial stability.