American futurologist F. Fukuyama considers the prevail of social distrust as an additional tax to the national economics. Economic activities are joint activities of people first of all. Low level of trust of economic actors to each other and high level of distrust of economic actors to state and public institutions raise transaction costs (costs incurred by contract awards), and this is equal to the introduction of an additional tax.
Belarusian socio-economic model hampers the development of horizontal relations between people because of its inclination to centralization. That is why 70% of Belarusians are confident that it is necessary to be very careful in contacts with people.
As for the trust to state and public institutions, in December 2013 the confidence index was positive only for the Orthodox Church and for the army, i.e. they were more trusted than distrusted (Table 1). In November 2006 the number of trusted intuitions was 15! Among them were Courts (+0.153), the Central Election Commission (+0.052) and the National Assembly (+0.048). Effective functioning of these institutions directly influences the level of competitiveness of national economies. But today these important institutions not merely don’t contribute to overcoming of the gap inside the Belarusian society, but on the contrary enlarge this gap.
Table 1. Distribution of answers to the question: “Do you trust the following state and public institutions?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
Trust
|
Don’t trust
|
DA/NA
|
Index*
|
|
Orthodox Church
|
63.0
|
26.2
|
10.8
|
+0.371
|
|
Army
|
44.1
|
39.8
|
16.1
|
+0.043
|
|
Business associations
|
39.7
|
41.4
|
18.9
|
–0.017
|
|
Bar association
|
39.4
|
42.1
|
18.5
|
–0.027
|
|
Non-state media
|
41.0
|
46.1
|
12.9
|
–0.052
|
|
Catholic Church
|
36.6
|
42.2
|
21.2
|
–0.056
|
|
International organizations (UN, EU, OSCE, European Parliament, Council of Europe and others)
|
36.9
|
43.1
|
20.0
|
–0.062
|
|
Independent research institutes
|
36.0
|
44.0
|
20.0
|
–0.081
|
|
President
|
37.7
|
47.5
|
14.8
|
–0.097
|
|
KGB
|
33.9
|
46.4
|
19.7
|
–0.127
|
|
Free and independent trade-unions
|
31.9
|
44.7
|
23.4
|
–0.129
|
|
Human rights groups (Belarusian Helsinki Committee and others)
|
28.7
|
42.5
|
28.8
|
–0.140
|
|
Courts
|
34.9
|
49.1
|
16.0
|
–0.143
|
|
Public Prosecutor’s Office
|
34.5
|
49.4
|
16.1
|
–0.150
|
|
Militia
|
34.9
|
51.6
|
13.5
|
–0.167
|
|
Trade-unions, members of the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus
|
30.0
|
48.4
|
21.6
|
–0.185
|
|
National Assembly
|
31.5
|
50.5
|
18.0
|
–0.191
|
|
State research institutes
|
31.5
|
52.1
|
16.4
|
–0.207
|
|
Central Election Commission
|
32.0
|
53.7
|
14.3
|
–0.218
|
|
State media
|
31.6
|
55.3
|
13.1
|
–0.239
|
|
Local Executive Committees
|
28.6
|
53.8
|
17.6
|
–0.254
|
|
Government
|
29.4
|
54.8
|
15.8
|
–0.256
|
|
Local Councils of Deputies
|
28.9
|
54.8
|
16.3
|
–0.260
|
|
Political parties supporting the present power
|
19.9
|
59.0
|
21.1
|
–0.393
|
|
Opposition political parties
|
15.8
|
63.4
|
20.8
|
–0.480
|
|
Protestant Church
|
10.9
|
62.1
|
27.0
|
–0.519
|
* Confidence index – the ratio of the difference between those who trust and those who don’t trust to the number of respondents who had answered the question
We’ve already mentioned more than once that state institutions in Belarus (excluding the army and the quasi-state-owned Orthodox Church) have no legitimacy. That is why their trust ratings follow the trust rating of the head of state like a thread follows a needle (Table 2). As for public institutions, their trust ratings are more stable due to a weak dependency on the political climate.
Table 2. Dynamics of trust rating of state and public institutions, %
|
Institutions
|
12’10
|
06’11
|
12’12
|
12’13
|
|
Orthodox Church
|
68.3
|
63.3
|
70.6
|
63.0
|
|
President
|
55.0
|
35.7
|
39.1
|
37.7
|
|
Army
|
53.6
|
45.4
|
52.8
|
44.1
|
|
State media
|
52.9
|
39.2
|
38.1
|
31.6
|
|
Government
|
51.6
|
33.6
|
35.0
|
29.4
|
|
Bar association
|
49.9
|
43.2
|
48.3
|
39.4
|
|
Courts
|
49.0
|
43.4
|
40.8
|
34.9
|
|
Central Election Commission
|
47.5
|
34.6
|
32.9
|
32.0
|
|
Public Prosecutor’s Office
|
47.3
|
38.1
|
37.8
|
34.5
|
|
Non-state media
|
46.3
|
46.2
|
48.1
|
41.1
|
|
International organizations (UN, EU, OSCE, European Parliament, Council of Europe and others)
|
45.8
|
43.0
|
38.7
|
36.9
|
|
Militia
|
45.6
|
35.3
|
37.4
|
34.9
|
|
Independent research institutes
|
44.0
|
44.6
|
45.1
|
36.0
|
|
Local Executive Committees
|
43.5
|
36.5
|
30.5
|
28.6
|
|
KGB
|
43.2
|
33.8
|
37.2
|
33.9
|
|
Local Councils of Deputies
|
41.2
|
34.6
|
31.5
|
28.9
|
|
Human rights groups (Belarusian Helsinki Committee and others)
|
38.0
|
32.6
|
33.5
|
28.7
|
|
Business associations
|
36.2
|
33.5
|
45.1
|
39.7
|
|
National Assembly
|
35.7
|
27.2
|
33.1
|
31.5
|
|
Catholic Church
|
35.4
|
38.0
|
44.1
|
36.6
|
|
Trade-unions, members of the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus
|
35.4
|
27.6
|
34.1
|
30.0
|
|
Political parties supporting the present power
|
33.8
|
21.7
|
23.7
|
19.9
|
|
Free and independent trade-unions
|
33.3
|
33.5
|
38.7
|
31.9
|
|
Protestant Church
|
18.4
|
17.4
|
16.3
|
10.9
|
|
Opposition political parties
|
16.3
|
20.1
|
20.0
|
15.8
|
As an example, let’s compare the trust ratings of state and non-state media during the electoral mobilization (December 2010) and at the peak of economic crisis (June 2011). The rating of state media had decreased from 52.9% to 39.2% (–13.7 points). The rating of non-state media practically hadn’t changed. It proved to be resistant to the crisis, because society made responsible the head of state and the government responsible for it.
One of distinctive features of the December survey is the simultaneous decrease of trust ratings of both state and non-state institutions, while the trust rating of A. Lukashenko remained more or less stable (39.1% in December 2012 vs. 37.7% in December 2013). This decrease affected even the Orthodox Church (–7.6 points) and the army (–8.7 points).
It is common practice even among independent experts to explain the low efficiency of Belarusian economy by technical reasons (incompetence of members of the government is probably the most popular one). However technical reasons are just ripples on the socio-cultural basin. Trust should be regarded as an absolute humanitarian value, and trust to the power – as a compulsory part of the general trust. Its’ absence gives warnings of the ill health of society and state.