«

»

“THE YOUNG OCTOBER IS AHEAD”?

Belarus is one of the few countries of the world where the 7th of November is still a public holiday celebrating the anniversary of the October Revolution of 1917. This event doesn’t provoke as many heated discussions and sharp differentiations as, for example, the Great Patriotic War. Revolution is less important for the historical collective consciousness: for Belarusian respondents it takes one of the last places in the list of the most important events of the XX century in contrast to the Great Patriotic War, which occupies the first place. At the same time the October Revolution is still an important part of the official political discourse in Belarus.
On the other hand, the dethronement of the Lenin monument in Kiev, 22 years after the collapse of communism, shows that the events of 1917 are not a part of long ago history for the post-Soviet countries. They still define certain dispositions in the political space, although only symbolically.
But how do they define it? How do Belarusians evaluate this historical event?

 

As one can see from Table 1 the society is divided practically into two equal parts depending on the attitude to October 1917. Extreme and moderate evaluations are almost symmetrical. What are the reasons for these evaluations? A partial answer can be found in Table 2.
Table 2. Dependency of evaluations of the October Revolution of 1917 to socio-demographic characteristics and political preferences, %
Variant of answer
Evaluation of the October Revolution of 1917
It is clearly a negative historical event
This event is hard to evaluate, there are more negative than positive consequences to it
This event is hard to evaluate, there are more positive than negative consequences to it
It is clearly a positive historical event
Sex:
Male
17.7
25.2
24.5
20.5
Female
16.6
25.5
24.4
17.9
Age:
18-19
28.0
32.0
14.0
8.0
20-24
18.4
29.6
21.1
14.5
25-29
19.7
24.5
19.7
17.7
30-39
17.1
28.5
23.6
14.4
40-49
15.7
24.2
27.4
17.8
50-59
15.2
27.7
24.6
23.9
60 +
16.4
19.8
27.3
24.4
Education:
Primary
17.9
27.4
17.9
24.2
Incomplete secondary
11.1
20.3
26.1
24.2
Secondary
20.6
21.1
27.4
18.0
Vocational
17.6
27.4
21.4
18.1
Higher
12.7
32.5
24.3
18.8
Does Belarus need market-type reforms?
Yes
17.2
28.5
22.5
17.4
No
20.1
21.8
25.4
24.2
Do you trust the President?
Yes
23.7
29.1
20.4
14.8
No
11.2
26.9
24.2
16.6
Do you trust opposition parties?
Yes
22.7
27.7
18.5
18.1
No
16.5
24.9
26.4
19.6
Do you trust non-state media?
Yes
17.3
31.4
18.7
17.4
No
18.8
21.0
27.6
19.8
Geopolitical choice:
Integration with Russia
17.8
21.8
24.9
26.2
Joining the EU
18.5
30.8
21.3
15.1
It’s easy to see that the most differentiating factor is age, and the weakest factor is sex. The attitude of men and women is practically the same, the evaluations of the youngest and the oldest age group diverse several-fold. The weak connection to the trust to non-state media is quite interesting. This fact may be regarded as an indication that this trust is not ideologically determined.
The level of trust to the President is the second most important indicator after the age. The dependency here is one-sided: the shares of those who evaluate the revolution negatively vary several-fold between those who trust A. Lukashenko and those who don’t trust him. At the same time the shares of those who evaluate this event positively are almost equal. The dependency on the attitude to market-type reforms is inverse: the percentage of those who consider that the October Revolution had only negative consequences is almost equal among the “marketers” and “anti-marketeers”, as well as among the “Belo-Russians” and “Euro-Belarusians”. But the shares of those who evaluate the revolution positively vary distinctly in these groups.
Several conclusions should be made on the basis of Tables 1-2. In the first place, the October Revolution is not a consensual value for Belarusians in contrast to the Great Patriotic War. In the second place, there is a noticeable correlation between the ways people position themselves in the political infighting today and their attitude to October 1917. People supporting the present power are more positive about this event than the opponents of the power. In the third place, the differences are not fundamental. The difference between generations is more significant than the difference between political opponents. The Revolution is passing to the history, though only to a recent one.