In short-distance runs politics wins over economics. But in average- and long-distance runs it is economics that wins as a rule. The March survey shows it clearly.
The dynamics of public opinion in March was formed under the influence of events in Ukraine and Russia or, more specifically, under the interpretation of these events by Russian TV-media on the one hand (politics) and under the influence of day-to-day life (economics).
Consumer price index amounted to 101.3% in March 2014 in comparison with February 2014 and to 104.9% in comparison with December 2013. Government plans on restricting headline inflation to 11% during the current year are clearly not going to be realized. Real wages (i.e. taking into account the increase of consumer prices for goods and services) in January-February 2014 jumped by 4.4% in comparison to January-February 2013, and dropped by 0.7% in February 2014 comparatively to January 2014.
As is well known, this year government has no plans of repeating the record rate of real wages increase, demonstrated in 2013 (22.4% during the first quarter and 15.8% during the whole year). But Belarusians are accustomed to a two-digit increase of wages. Thus its decrease, even an insignificant one, should have had a negative impact on social indices. But this didn’t happen. Politics won over economics: expectation index jumped by 21 points (Table 2), policy correctness index jumped by 16.2 points (Table 3). Only financial standing index remains unchanged (Table 1). Unlike his “colleagues” he is least of all subjected to the influence of politics.
Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question “How has your personal financial standing changed for the last three months?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
06’11
|
03’13
|
06’13
|
09’13
|
12’13
|
03’14
|
|
It has improved
|
1.6
|
13.3
|
13.7
|
11.6
|
12.6
|
10.1
|
|
It has not changed
|
23.2
|
56.4
|
63.1
|
63.9
|
58.1
|
63.3
|
|
It has become worse
|
73.4
|
28.7
|
21.6
|
21.6
|
28.4
|
25.2
|
|
FSI*
|
–71.8
|
–15.4
|
–7.9
|
–10.0
|
–15.8
|
–15.1
|
* Financial standing index (the difference between positive and negative answers)
Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question “How is the socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus within the next few years?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
06’11
|
03’13
|
06’13
|
09’13
|
12’13
|
03’14
|
|
It is going to improve
|
11.9
|
15.3
|
17.7
|
17.5
|
12.5
|
24.0
|
|
It is not going to change
|
20.3
|
44.7
|
49.1
|
46.7
|
46.1
|
45.0
|
|
It is going to become worse
|
55.5
|
27.3
|
23.7
|
28.1
|
35.9
|
26.1
|
|
EI*
|
–43.6
|
–12.0
|
–6.0
|
–10.6
|
–23.1
|
–2.1
|
* Expectation index
Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question “Do you think the state of things is developing in our country in the right or in the wrong direction in general?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
09’11
|
03’13
|
06’13
|
09’13
|
12’13
|
03’14
|
|
In the right direction
|
17.0
|
34.5
|
39.6
|
39.1
|
31.9
|
40.2
|
|
In the wrong direction
|
68.5
|
51.4
|
45.5
|
46.7
|
54.1
|
46.2
|
|
DA/NA
|
14.5
|
14.1
|
14.9
|
14.2
|
14.0
|
13.6
|
|
PCI*
|
-51.5
|
–16.9
|
–5.9
|
–7.6
|
–22.2
|
–6.0
|
*Policy correctness index
Positive and negative evaluation of country’s development policy are now almost equal (Table 3). Share of positive evaluations among Belarusians, who trust state media, amounts to 70.3%, among those, who don’t trust them, 21.4%. Does that mean that state mass media significantly influence views of their public? We wouldn’t haste on making such a conclusion, as the cause-and-effect relationship is not so evident in this case.
Seemingly, despite the considerable domination of state mass media, each Belarusian today has a choice (53% of respondents use Internet every day or several times a week). But the choice is made in favor of mass media, which provide a person with an acceptable “image”. Everything which doesn’t conform to this acceptable “image” is simply not perceived by information consumers.
33.9% of respondents with secondary education evaluate positively the course of country’s development; 34.8% of respondents with higher education share the same opinion. There is nothing to be surprised of. In Belarus most of licentiates are so called “budget-getters”, i.e. people whose financial well-being depends of the generosity of the state.
The victory of politics over economics is confirmed by the answers to the following question “Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis?” as well (Table 4). After the first quarter of 2014 the share of respondents who answered this question affirmatively dropped by 14 points. Among respondents who trust national mass media 34.5% agree, that there is a crisis, among those who don’t trust them, the share is twice as big – 67.5%. We do not see any significant difference between respondents with secondary and higher education in this case as well – 58.7% vs. 61.1%.
For reference the first column shows results, recorded at the peak of economic crisis of 2011.
We can make sure that the growth of optimism is formed under the influence of politics while reading the answers to the question “In your opinion, how will your financial income change in comparison with the price growth in the near future?” (Table 5). This question is very earthbound, that is why the answers do not correlate with the positive dynamics, shown in Tables 2-4.
In particular, only 6.7% of respondents think that their personal financial income will grow faster than prices. 62.3% of respondents (almost 10 times bigger) share the opposite opinion! In other words, a mass decrease of life level is not contradictory to a right course of development (40.2%).
Table 6 provides us ground for comparing dynamics of social indices during “a small victorious war of Russia in Georgia” in August 2008 to the present situation. Considering the scale of events, reaction of Belarusian society was the same: in September financial standing index didn’t change comparatively to June, while expectation index and policy correctness index grew. Further changes of indices (December 2008) were formed under the influence of another world-scale event — a worldwide financial crisis.
Table 6. Dynamics of financial standing index, expectation index and policy correctness index
|
Social indices
|
06’08
|
09’08
|
12’08
|
09’13
|
12’13
|
03’14
|
|
Financial standing index (FSI)
|
–6
|
–5
|
–21
|
–10
|
–16
|
–15
|
|
Expectation index (EI)
|
10
|
16
|
–24
|
–11
|
–23
|
–3
|
|
Policy correctness index (PCI)
|
11
|
23
|
11
|
–8
|
–22
|
–6
|
The ghost of soviet empire (the USSR) is still able to captivate a lot of Belarusians, though not as much as Russians, because after 23 years of independence Belarusians didn’t get rid of soviet past. Any actions, perceived as a renewal of past geopolitical power, lower the level of discomfort in society, which is reflected in the growth of social indices.