March survey recorder a victory of economics over politics. Although the growth of people’s income slowed down, expectancy index and policy correctness index increased considerably in comparison with December. As for the most “material” financial standing index, it hasn’t’ changed during the first quarter of the current year.
Mobilization campaign in Russia, started in March, hasn’t become less intensive when we started June survey. It hasn’t become less effective as well. Social indices and ratings of President V. Putin achieved historical maximums after the annexation of Crimea and they maintain in this position.
The question for how long Kremlin can maintain Russian society in the state of mobilization is left open. But Russian case is not unique. Historical experience shows that mobilization based on nationalism is wave-like. General solidarity against a common enemy lasts about 6-8 months in modern society. First three month are the active phase. The next phase of evolution of national excitement is the phenomenon that American sociologist R. Collins described as follows: “nerves of society lose their sensibility after the orgy of communal thrill”. After several month of euphoria, when the upsurge of unity goes down, society turns out to be fed up with national-uniting slogans. A pause is needed in order to mobilize it once more on the same base.
The process of spontaneous demobilization puts society back into the everyday life, where nothing had changed for the better: salaries didn’t grow, prices didn’t fall, and corruption didn’t disappear. As a result the same problems may cause more negative emotions.
Certainly, mobilization of Belarusians is just a pale shadow of mobilization of Russians. Nevertheless, mobilization effect may be noted in answers to almost all of politically-charged questions. The question “How has your personal financial standing changed for the last three months?” is not one of those questions (Table 1).
Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “How has your personal financial standing changed for the last three months?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
06’11
|
03’13
|
06’13
|
09’13
|
12’13
|
03’14
|
06’14
|
|
It has improved
|
1.6
|
13.3
|
13.7
|
11.6
|
12.6
|
10.1
|
9.3
|
|
It has not changed
|
23.2
|
56.4
|
63.1
|
63.9
|
58.1
|
63.3
|
57.6
|
|
It has become worse
|
73.4
|
28.7
|
21.6
|
21.6
|
28.4
|
25.2
|
32.1
|
|
FSI*
|
–71.8
|
–15.4
|
–7.9
|
–10.0
|
–15.8
|
–15.1
|
–22.8
|
* Financial standing index (the difference between positive and negative answers)
In April-May pork prices in Belarus increased substantially. Judging by the angry rhetoric of the head of state, officials once more didn’t notice an increase of prices for a product of mass demand. There is nothing surprising about it. It is not very likely that officials buy provision in shops and markets by themselves. But the head of state does, and he had announced it on the 27th of May during a working tour in Minsk region: “Don’t tell me stories! Because you don’t go to shops and markets and you don’t see how pork became much more expensive today”.
Let us note that the increase of pork price happened against the background of a quite low (by Belarusian measures) increase of real wages. In January-May it grew by 3.6% in comparison to the same period of the previous year (the same figure amounted to 21.5% that year). Thus the financial standing index couldn’t maintain in the same level any more. It went down and lost 7.7 points relatively to March.
Economical problems didn’t influence the expectation index. It almost hasn’t changed (Table 2). However, you should note the simultaneous growth of positive and negative expectations, which is a sure sign of public opinion polarization. Thus the record low (over last 15 months) share of answers “it is not going to change”.
Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “How is the socio-economic situation going to change in Belarus within the next few years?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
06’11
|
03’13
|
06’13
|
09’13
|
12’13
|
03’14
|
06’14
|
|
It is going to improve
|
11.9
|
15.3
|
17.7
|
17.5
|
12.5
|
24.0
|
28.6
|
|
It is not going to change
|
20.3
|
44.7
|
49.1
|
46.7
|
46.1
|
45.0
|
35.0
|
|
It is going to become worse
|
55.5
|
27.3
|
23.7
|
28.1
|
35.9
|
26.1
|
28.7
|
|
EI*
|
–43.6
|
–12.0
|
–6.0
|
–10.6
|
–23.1
|
–2.1
|
–0.1
|
* Expectation index
The policy correctness index left the negative zone for the first time since March 2011 (Table 3). Against the background of minimal (during two years) financial standing index this opposing motion of social indices looks quite strange. This is the direct result of public opinion formation under the influence of economical and political stimuli, working in opposing directions.
Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think the state of things is developing in our country in the right or in the wrong direction in general?”, %
|
Variant of answer
|
09’11
|
03’13
|
06’13
|
09’13
|
12’13
|
03’14
|
06’14
|
|
In the right direction
|
17.0
|
34.5
|
39.6
|
39.1
|
31.9
|
40.2
|
42.3
|
|
In the wrong direction
|
68.5
|
51.4
|
45.5
|
46.7
|
54.1
|
46.2
|
42.3
|
|
DA/NA
|
14.5
|
14.1
|
14.9
|
14.2
|
14.0
|
13.6
|
15.4
|
|
PCI*
|
-51.5
|
–16.9
|
–5.9
|
–7.6
|
–22.2
|
–6.0
|
0
|
* Policy correctness index
The influence of opposed economical and political stimuli is evident in the answers to the question of Table 4 as well. Decreasing number of respondents recognizing economical crisis once again didn’t manage to become a stable tendency. The share of economical pessimists in Belarusian society increased once more, though this increase is not very important (+3.1 points).
:
We have already noted several times that year 2006 divides the history of Belarusian socio-economic model into two parts: an ascending stage and a descending stage. Let’s look at Table 5 which is sorted by the last column. The three leaders today are price growth, impoverishment of people and decrease of industrial output. This is the result of four incomplete presidential terms of A. Lukashenko. Let’s point out that the importance of the second and the third issues doubled in comparison with 2006. The only merits of A. Lukashenko are the overcoming of the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster and the reduction of unemployment and crime.
Table 5. Dynamics of answering the question: “What are the most important issues that Belarus and Belarusian citizens face today?”, % (more than one answer is possible)
|
Variant of answer
|
06’99
|
06’06
|
12’08
|
06’14
|
|
Prices growth
|
82.7
|
60.1
|
82.5
|
80.0
|
|
Impoverishment of people
|
73.2
|
19.5
|
37.8
|
41.9
|
|
Decrease of industrial output
|
31.8
|
18.7
|
31.7
|
35.1
|
|
Unemployment
|
35.7
|
37.0
|
35.7
|
25.2
|
|
Corruption, bribery
|
29.7
|
27.6
|
26.0
|
23.8
|
|
Fall in population
|
–
|
21.9
|
14.9
|
16.9
|
|
Infringement of human rights
|
23.3
|
22.1
|
20.1
|
16.0
|
|
Lack of law and order
|
24.6
|
22.1
|
20.6
|
15.8
|
|
Threat from the West
|
9.3
|
18.2
|
13.0
|
15.4
|
|
Decay of national culture
|
13.1
|
10.8
|
8.1
|
13.2
|
|
Overcoming of the Chernobyl disaster consequences
|
29.5
|
25.5
|
10.6
|
11.8
|
|
Crime
|
44.6
|
23.2
|
20.8
|
11.6
|
|
International isolation of Belarus
|
9.1
|
14.4
|
9.8
|
11.0
|
|
Social split
|
5.0
|
7.3
|
4.0
|
10.6
|
|
Threat of the loss of independence of Belarus
|
–
|
8.3
|
5.2
|
9.5
|
As for the achievements, they are not so unambiguous as well. The topicality of the Chernobyl disaster consequences decreases naturally with years. As for the unemployment problem, Belarusians solve it at the expense of Russia where average salary equaled to $ 915 in 2013.
Attention should be paid to the last row of Table 5. In comparison with December 2008 the number of respondents who think that the problem of Belarus losing its independence had almost doubled (5.2% vs. 9.5%; 7.8% among respondents trusting A. Lukashenko and 12.7% amount those who don’t trust him). Considering the events in Ukraine this growth shouldn’t be considered as something surprising. Nevertheless the problem of independence is still at the periphery of social consciousness.
In the confrontation of political and economical factors over the right to form public opinion the resource of the political factor is close to its exhaustion. At the same time there are hardly any prospects to break negative trends in economy. Inflation is increasing. During January-May period prices grew by 8.9%, so even the leaders of the National Bank don’t expect it to maintain under the planned limit of 11%. If our estimations are right, the policy correctness index will be back to the negative zone very soon.