Trust rating of oppositional parties froze on a minimal level amid the increase of A. Lukashenko’s ratings (Table 1). It has lost 5.9 points since December 2013. And it seems logic. Amid stormy political events in and around Ukraine the inability of oppositional parties and their leaders to make news, interesting for public opinion, became especially evident.


And there is a high need of news in Belarusian society today. This may be seen from the growth of trust ratings of both state and non-state mass media, which is registered second quarter running.
Among Belarusians that don’t trust the head of state (in September their share amounted to exactly one third) only 22.1% trust oppositional parties, 51% don’t trust and 26.9% didn’t make a decision in this question. According to our opinion, only the last group may be considered as an electoral base of opposition which they may try to conquer with the help of their own resources.
Under conditions of electoral mobilizations, which happen in Belarus each 5 years during presidential elections, a candidate (or candidates) of oppositional parties enjoy support from an absolute majority of people who don’t trust A. Lukashenko. Although it should be noted that a significant part of voters doesn’t vote “for” the oppositional candidate (or candidates): they vote “against” A. Lukashenko.
State mass media enjoy trust from 65.5% of adherents of A. Lukashenko and of only 4.4% of his opponents! Attitude to non-state mass media is not so politically-charged: 30.4% and 46.9% accordingly.
The ratios, quoted above, may be regarded as an answer to the question: “Who is splitting the society up?” Belarusian state because of its authoritarian nature is unable to be active in politics, i.e. to co-ordinate interests of various professional, political and other groups of population. That is why there is nothing accidental in the fact that there are no fractions in the National Assembly; and owing to this reason “it isn’t a place for discussions”.
The absence of a political subject, playing the role of a mediator, doesn’t mean that there are no conflicts either inside the society or between its parts and the power. In the present context the only way of solving the internal issues is a revolution or a rebellion, which happened in history more than once.
The answers to the question “Do you think that Belarusian opposition understands people like you?” (Table 2) are indicative of possibilities for extension of electoral support to opposition and at the same time of an objective limit to such extension.
Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: “Do you think that Belarusian opposition understands issues and cares of people like you?”, %
Variant of answer
Attitude to A. Lukashenko
Don’t trust
Number of positive answers among all respondents amounted to only 21.1% and to 34.3% among the opponents of A. Lukashenko. The high share (almost each fifth) of respondents, that didn’t know how to answer this apparently simple question, is worth mentioning too. What’s more interesting is that among the opponents of the head of state the number of those who didn’t know how to answer is by 3.4 points higher than among his supporters.
Let’s try to find an explanation to the preponderance of A. Lukashenko’s opponents in the row “DA/NA”. The connection between the number of respondents that didn’t know how to answer and their education will help us: primary education – 4.3%, higher education – 24.6%. As you can see, with much wisdom comes not only much sorrow, but also much doubt. Belarusians with primary education constitute a significant part of A. Lukashenko’s supporters, and hence they don’t need understanding from opposition. They are convinced that HE understands their problems and cares. What else do “specialists” with primary education need to feel confident about today and the future?
Of course, understanding of social problems requires from politicians not only deep theoretical knowledge, but also managerial experience, because without working in the halls of power it is impossible to know numerous nuances, which constitute social life. But opposition is not permitted to work in the halls of power. This is the fate of any dictatorship. All dictatorships end up with another rebellion and return to a new dictatorship because of dictatorship mature professionals in opposition don’t appear under the conditions.