Monthly Archive: March 2016

March 2016: BELARUS – THE EU: A THAW, NOT A SUMMER

Normalization of relations between the official Minsk and the EU, cancellation of European sanctions, and softening of the anti-Western tone of Belarusian officials led to a certain increase of pro-European moods in Belarus. In particular, this was registered in the answers to the standard IISEPS question about Belarus hypothetically joining the EU (Table 1).

MARCH 2016: CONFLICT IN UKRAINE: A RUSSIAN VIEW FROM BELARUSIAN EYES

As we’ve already noted it in IISEPS analytical materials, in relation to many aspects of Ukrainian conflict Belarusians mostly share Russian position. The results of March survey are not an exclusion.
Before looking closer at the answers, related to practical aspects of conflict, it should be said that they are determined not only by skillful Russian propaganda, but also by ideological setups of Belarusians. These setups were formed long before the conflict.

RESULTS OF THE NATION OPINION POLL conducted on March 2-12, 2016

(1.508 persons interviewed, margin of error does not exceed 0.03) How do you evaluate economic problems faced by Belarus today? Variant of answer % These problems are temporary, we had survived worse than this in the past 28.5 These problems will last for a long time, it’s time to tighten the belts 40.5 This is …

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MARCH 2016: WE WON’T BE HELPED FROM ABROAD

Two last economic crises (in 2009 and 2011) were rather transient, and this gave people hope that they can wait through the crisis of 2015 too, despite the decrease of real incomes by 5.6%. However, “successes” of Belarusian model in the first quarter of the current year decisively cancelled these hopes.

MARCH 2016: DOLLAR IS NOT A RIVAL TO RUBLE

Trust is a way of adaption to the uncertainty of future by means of ignoring this uncertainty. In other words, trust is the simplest and the most efficient way to cope with uncertainty. This pseudo-scientific definition of trust can be understood better based on the results of Table 1. How many goods will you be able to buy for one million of Belarusian rubles, if you save them in March 2016 and use them in a year (we’re factoring out the future denomination)? Even financial specialists cannot answer this question.

MARCH 2016: DURING THE CRISIS PEOPLE PREFER A LIVING DOG TO A DEAD LION

87.8% of Belarusians admit that there is a crisis in the country, however only 24% of them think that Belarusian economy has collapsed. Relevance of this ratio is confirmed by results of Table 1. Crisis didn’t lead to a reevaluation of economic perceptions of Belarusians. In particular, it didn’t lead to a decrease of mass belief into efficiency of state-owned property. On the contrary, March 2016 survey registered an insignificant shift of economic priorities in favor of state-owned property.

MARCH 2016: UNHAPPY BEGINNING OF ANOTHER 5-YEAR PERIOD

The first quarter of 2016 draw a line under the Anomalies-2014 and 2015. As we’ve emphasized it, in the long run economic factors win over political factors in the struggle for the influence on public opinion. Beginning from March 2014, the “image of the world” of an average Belarusian was formed under a significant influence of Russian TV channels. Over 60% of population of the “partisan country” were sincerely happy about “Crimeaisours”, and this fact stopped the negative trends outlined by the end of 2013.

IISEPS News, N 1 (79), 2016

IISEPS News – ISSN 1822-5535 (Printing), ISSN 1822-5543 (ONLINE), N 1 (79), 2016 Content: Preface MONITORING OF PUBLIC OPINION IN BELARUS: March-2016 Unhappy beginning of another 5-year period During the crisis people prefer a living dog to a dead lion Dollar is not a rival to ruble We won’t be helped from abroad Farewell process …

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MARCH 2016: CULTURAL GENE OF DEATH PENALTY IS BRED IN THE BONE

(Русский) Judging by independent mass media, it’s easy to make a conclusion that Belarus is a typical police state. Information about arrests of oppositional activists comes in on almost daily basis. It would seem that amid the developing economic crisis, which cuts government’s ability to buy people’s loyalty, we should see an increase of the repressive constituent of stability maintaining. However, March survey doesn’t confirm this hypothesis (Table 1).

MARCH 2016: FAREWELL PROCESS TO ILLUSIONS HAS BEEN STARTED

The last pre-“Crimeaisours” value of electoral rating of A. Lukashenko amounted to 34.8% (Table 1). One quarter earlier the rating was higher by 7.8 points, and amid the decrease of real incomes that was an almost sure sign of a negative trend. Possibly, the last trend in the long-drown political biography of the constant head of Belarusian state.