Monthly Archive: July 2014

THE CONSOLIDATING POTENTIAL OF UNIQUENESS

In May A. Lukashenko delivered his annual message to Belarusian people and National Assembly. 61% of respondents answered that they know about the head of state’s speech (Table 1). This is a rather high level of awareness.

PORK PRICE VS. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

March survey recorder a victory of economics over politics. Although the growth of people’s income slowed down, expectancy index and policy correctness index increased considerably in comparison with December. As for the most “material” financial standing index, it hasn’t’ changed during the first quarter of the current year.
Mobilization campaign in Russia, started in March, hasn’t become less intensive when we started June survey. It hasn’t become less effective as well. Social indices and ratings of President V. Putin achieved historical maximums after the annexation of Crimea and they maintain in this position.

HONEST, BUT WEAK AND NOT WELL-INFORMED

Unexampled in its aggressiveness informational campaign in Russian mass media couldn’t but influence public opinion in Belarus (in June 64.5% of respondents answered that they get information on events in Ukraine from Russian TV). In the beginning it meant that pro-Russian moods were strengthening and thus the number of supporters of integration with Russia was growing. Later Russian nationalism began to arouse Belarusian nationalism.

ELECTORAL STABILITY AND TRUST INCREASE

Financial standing index’s decrease by 7.7 points (from -15.1 in March to -22.8 in June) didn’t influence electoral rating of A. Lukashenko. It coincided with the March value accurately to one decimal place (Table 1). This precision is nothing else but a chance. However the very fact of stability of electoral rating of the head of state against the background of a significant worsening of economical well-being of Belarusian is a rare phenomenon.

SYMBOLS OF BELARUSIANS

The recent World Hockey Championship, held in Minsk, became, in addition, a demonstration of Belarusians’ unity (Table 1).

VOTING, FOLLOWING, DISCUSSING

What is the direction of development of political life in Belarus? Democracy. This is the most popular answer today (Table 1). More than a half of A. Lukashenko’s supporters think so (51.3%). But what does “democracy” mean in this case? Let us turn to the original source: “We don’t need a democracy with uproars. We need a kind of democracy when people work, get a salary in order to buy some bread, milk, sour cream, cheese, sometimes a piece of meat to feed a child and so on.

GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS

June survey testifies that respondents’ support of Eastern vector slightly decreased over the last quarter. Nevertheless its level is still quite high (Table 1).

PROPAGANDA ALMIGHTY?

According to the results of March 2014 IISEPS survey we had noted a significant growth of pro-Russian moods in the country. After the past quarter, according to the results of June survey, level of those moods went down, though not notably. In March survey, in a choice between integration with Russia and joining the EU, Russian vector was chosen by 51.5% of respondents, while 32.9% preferred Europe. In June 46.9% of respondents answered in favor of integration with the RF and 33.1% – in favor of Europe.

AS GOOD AS IN THE WEST

In 1989 13% of Russians agreed that Russia had enemies, in 2013, before Euromaidan, already 78% of respondents believed that. This is the dynamics. This data shows the effectiveness of “five minutes hate” against external and internal enemies, which are broadcasted on Russian TV 25 hours a day since March.

IF TOMORROW WAR BREAKS OUT…

According to June survey, in general Belarusians evaluate positively the actions of Russia in Ukraine over the last months, in particular, the annexation of Crimea. This approval is not as unanimous as in Russia, but the share of approval if notably higher than 50%.
How probable do respondents consider the repetition of the Crimean script in Belarus?