Monthly Archive: January 2014

BULLETINS INFOFOCUS № 1

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 1, 2014 – ISSN 1822-5578 (only Russian) Content: Introduction 1. Basic trends of January 2. Chronicle of key events 3. Politics 3.1. The principle of social equality under the wheels of political desirability 3.2. Work problems of Bellesbumprom Concern entities 4. Economics 4.1. Worldwide optimism against the background …

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A SUCCESSFUL YEAR FOR YOUNG AND OLD

The truth comes through comparison. The data of Tables 1-2 give us this opportunity. The year with the unlucky number, the third year of the fourth five-year period, according to a half of respondents, was “the same, as the previous one” for Belarus, and this allowed the decrease of the level of positive and negative evaluations in comparison with 2012.

ANOTHER START OF THE NEGATIVE TREND

All three social indices (the financial standing index (FSI), the expectation index (EI) and the policy correctness index (PCI)) decreased considerably in December in comparison with September (Table 1-3). The FSI decreased by 5.8 points, the EI – by 12.5 points, the PCI – by 14.6 points. An insignificant decrease of social indices was recorded in September as well, but that change didn’t allow to make up a conclusion about a new trend in the change of public opinion. Today we can state this negative trend with confidence.

THE SECOND ADVENT OF THE “NEW MAJORITY”?

Reserves for the growth of A. Lukashenko’s electoral rating are sweepingly decreasing judging by the results of December survey. The rating steadily increased from September 2011 to September 2013, and gained altogether 22.1 points – from 20.5% to 42.6% (the decrease by 4.8 points in June 2012 should be regarded as an exception proving the rule). But the decrease by 7.8 points at once in December down to 34.8% should rather be called an implosion. The same rate of the state of head’s electoral rating decrease was regarded in 2011. But at the time it had not been decreasing in the splendid isolation, but following the decrease of the national currency known officially as “Belarusian ruble” and unofficially as “hares”.

THE GUILTY ONE WILL BECOME THE SAVIOUR

Within the general tendency to the worsening of social well-being the share of respondents who answered positively to the following question increased: “Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis?” (Table 1). The increase amounts to 11.2 points at once. During two years the feeling of economic crisis in Belarusian society was constantly decreasing: from 87.6% in September 2011 to 57.4% in September 2013 (–29.8 points!)

NEGATIVE DYNAMICS OF TRUST TO INSTITUTES

American futurologist F. Fukuyama considers the prevail of social distrust as an additional tax to the national economics. Economic activities are joint activities of people first of all. Low level of trust of economic actors to each other and high level of distrust of economic actors to state and public institutions raise transaction costs (costs incurred by contract awards), and this is equal to the introduction of an additional tax.

“THE YOUNG OCTOBER IS AHEAD”?

Belarus is one of the few countries of the world where the 7th of November is still a public holiday celebrating the anniversary of the October Revolution of 1917. This event doesn’t provoke as many heated discussions and sharp differentiations as, for example, the Great Patriotic War. Revolution is less important for the historical collective consciousness: for Belarusian respondents it takes one of the last places in the list of the most important events of the XX century in contrast to the Great Patriotic War, which occupies the first place. At the same time the October Revolution is still an important part of the official political discourse in Belarus.

CIVIL DUTY AND SURVIVAL STRATEGY

There will be elections to the local Soviets in Belarus in the end of March. The elections will be conducted according to the tried-and-true over the last two decades script, if we judge by the results of formation of territorial election committees (only several representatives of opposition are included in 1331 committees of regional, district and city levels).

GEOPOLITICAL BALANCE

December 2013 opinion poll shows that Belarusians’ geopolitical preferences once again had a swing away from Russia. A new historic minimum is recorded in the answers to the question about voting on a hypothetical referendum about integration of Belarus and Russia (Table 1).

Gleb Hmelnitsky

08 Jan
Lukashenko’s rating has fallen and no one to it pick up