Monthly Archive: November 2012

NEGATIVE STABILITY

In his interview to the newspaper “Respublika” minister of economy N. Snopkov mentioned the inflation decrease as the main achievement of the government in 2012: “Last year we had hyperinflation. This year it will not exceed the forecasted limits – it will make up about 21-22%; it has decreased 5 times. This is success of our economic policy and one of the best rates in the world practice of the government antiinflationary measures”.

“SMALL BORDER TRAFFIC” AND BIG-TIME POLITICS

Some years ago Belarus signed an agreement for the so-called “small border traffic” with the neighboring countries of the EU Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The matter concerns visa-free trips to the neighboring countries of the border territories residents. The agreement with Latvia has already come into effect; with Lithuania and Poland – has not.

FRUIT OF THE “DIALOGUE ON MODERNIZATION OF BELARUS”

In the IISEPS opinion poll held in December 2012, just as in the previous one, respondents were asked to express their attitude to the program of the European Union for Belarus (Pict. 1). A comparison of the polls’ results shows that slight, but important dynamics are present.

THE LULL AT THE GEOPOLITICAL FRONTS

In September 2012 IISEPS registered an appreciable decrease in sentiment in favor of integration with Russia in comparison with the previous period. The data of the December opinion poll show that, paraphrasing Remarque, “All Quiet on all the Fronts” (Pict. 1-3).

“A NEW MAJORITY”: BETWEEN THE MYTHS AND REALITY

(Русский) В июне 2012 г. 77.3% респондентов согласились с тем, что Беларусь нуждается в переменах, в то время как противоположную точку зрения поддержало только 15.1%. Казалось бы, подавляющее превосходство первых над вторыми просто обязано было материализоваться в публичные действия. Однако в очередной раз подобным ожиданиям оппозиционных политиков не суждено было сбыться.

AGAIN ABOUT THE TURNOUT

(Русский) Вопрос о явке оказался в центре избирательной кампании большинства оппозиционных политических партий. Низкая явка, по мнению партийных активистов, должна была свидетельствовать о новом качестве белорусского общества, которое оно обрело после шока 2011 г. Естественно, вновь была поднята тема отказа от выполнения “социального контракта” (лояльность в обмен на рост доходов). Массовый бойкот выборов и должен был выступить в качестве индикатора такого отказа.

ON THE SWING OF THE TRUST RATINGS

Only 14% of Belarusians agree that officials really help people with solving their problems (Pict. 1). As it has been already noted by us more than once, a typical representative of the Belarusian, as well as of Russian “majority” is simultaneously an anti-statist and an adherent of power.

A STABLE RATING AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF A GROWING INCOME

Stabilization of social indices led to stabilization of A. Lukashenko’s ratings (electoral and trust) (Pict. 1-2). The mean value of the electoral rating in 2010 was 44.9%, in 2011 – 29.4%, and in 2012 – 31.8%. Similar mean values of the two last years are connected with the “distortion” brought about by the March opinion poll of 2011 held in the first half of the month, i.e. before halting of free currency sale in currency exchange offices.

WITH OR WITHOUT HIM COMES TO THE SAME THING

While A. Lukashenko continues to believe in the correctness of the policy chosen 18 years ago, the majority of Belarusians continue to consider him the main person responsible for the present crisis in Belarus (Pict. 1). It should be mentioned, however, that in 2011 his fault decreased considerably relative to the government.

Bykowsky Pavliuk

28 Nov
“Sociologists have measured the turnout and the boycott”