Monthly Archive: May 2006

Aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster still remains a burning and topical issue for the Belarusian society. Unfortunately, it will stay for a long time yet. For the 20 years since the catastrophe, they have eliminated only its major and the most outrageous, or the most noticeable, aftermaths. There are some latent problems still outstanding. Nevertheless, attitude of people to the Chernobyl problem is gradually changing. This issue is getting less acute and topical in the public opinion as it is giving way to other social concerns. This is of course the work of the authorities that are persuading the population in that the danger of Chernobyl catastrophe is exaggerated in order to reduce their expenses for this issue.

The issue of “Homo Sovieticus” is vital to understand the political processes taking place in the modern Belarus. It is not occasional. According to the opinion poll conducted by the Russia’s Centre for Public Opinion Research in March of 1991, yet before the USSR collapse, only 24% of ethnic Belarusians identified themselves as citizens of the Belarusian Soviet Republic and 69% – as USSR citizens. Belonging of Belarusians to the USSR became an all-time high among the nationalities of the former Soviet republics. To compare, this ratio in Estonia was 97% vs. 3% (see L. Gudkov, Negative Identity).

Russia-Belarus relations, judging by constant leaks into Russian newspaper Kommersant, hold a firm first place in the line of news. According to its publication of May 30, Russia’s natural gas monopoly Gazprom offered to Belarus “to purchase natural gas for $200 per 1,000 m3 in 2007 instead of $46.68 which it currently pays. Experts say such stiffness is the result of Kremlin’s failure to take gas distributors of CIS under its control.”

The results of the nation opinion poll conducted in the second part of April of 2006 have revealed, as the Table 1 shows, that the number of respondents who think that the quality of living in the country is (to a different extent) good is almost 1.5-fold greater than the number of those who say it is bad (24.9% vs. 17.3%). Nearly 57% of the polled estimated it as the average, but it is obvious that positive estimates of the quality of living are in general dominating in the Belarusian society.

Very often the results of opinion polls among leaders of public opinion and experts, or the Belarusian elite, are disparaged both among democrats (“we know what we think about this, while nomenclature doesn’t decide anything!”) and in the official circles (“this is just an opinion of ‘self-titled pseudo-elite’ which doesn’t play any role in the public life!”) In our opinion, such arrogance only increases alienation of both groups from reality and therefore cuts their ability to influence social and political life. The other countries give as much attention to professional opinion polls among the elite as to public opinion polls because the viewpoints of the elite help see the direction in which it may develop.

It is well known how the Belarusian authorities take the West. It is more than ten years since they ordered to shoot the balloon with American pilots, but their relations with the West haven’t improved yet. Despite growing trade with Western countries, political tenseness only increases and acquires the traits of civilization division. Self-isolation of the country is throwing it out of the European system of values. Belarusians are recommended to look for friends and partners in the Arab East or even in the far-away Asian-Pacific region. This course will not change in the short-term perspective, as A. Lukashenko stated in his annual address to the Parliament and the nation.