Monthly Archive: March 2006

RESULTS OF THE NATION OPINION POLL CONDUCTED IN MARCH-APRIL OF 2006

(1496 persons interviewed, margin of error does not exceed 0.03)   1. Do you think in general the country is going in the right or wrong direction? Variant of answer % In the right direction 59.5 In the wrong direction 30.7 DA/NA 9.8 2. In your opinion, can young people presently make a good career …

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BULLETINS INFOFOCUS № 3

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 3, 2006 (only Russian) Content: Introduction Theme of the month: Election Results: Elegant Victory or Pyrrhic Victory? Document of the month: Findings of ODIHR OSCE: How Will Non-Recognition of Presidential Election Affect Current Situation? Organization of the month: Campsite of Protest: Act of Despair or Bravery Show? Introduction: …

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BULLETINS “IISEPS NEWS” N 1 (39) MARCH

IISEPS News, N 1 (39), 2006 Content: Preface STRENGTHENING PRO-“WIDE EUROPE” ATTITUDES IN BELARUS: January-2006 What do voters want? In search of campaign’s hit Differences between age groups Language of political communication February-2006 For whom to vote at the presidential election? Will the Belarusians know truth about the presidential election? Consolidation of electorates “Spiral of …

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ELECTION RESULTS IN THE LIGHT OF BASIC SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS

As the bar chart in Picture 1 shows, 63.8% of female respondents and 51.5% of male respondents gave their votes for A. Lukashenko (polling data is given in percentage to list population). On the contrary, all other candidates received more votes from men rather than from women: A. Milinkevich – 20.1% vs. 17.7%, A. Kozulin – 6.1% vs. 3.5%, S. Gaidukevich – 3.1% vs. 1%. It should be noted than women make the majority within Belarusian electorate. Therefore, election of A. Lukashenko for presidency is mainly the decision of the female part of the Belarusian society.

WHAT DOES THE MAJORITY WANT?

Results of the opinion poll conducted right after the presidential election show that A. Lukashenko made a clean sweep of the election. Indirectly, this is proved in questions on living standard, current political course and common ideological attitudes to which most of respondents gave answers in the same manner as proclaimed by A. Lukashenko.

PROTEST POTENTIAL

During his recent meeting with Russia’s president, A. Lukashenko stated that “almost entirely the population voted for him” except for “one or two thousand of under-aged youths who tried to de-stabilize the situation for money.”

PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN THE EYES OF VOTERS

At the recent meeting of Russian and Belarusian presidents, V. Putin unexpectedly asked A. Lukashenko if the latter would be able to consolidate different political forces around major problems of the state after the election. Converting this question from diplomatic language, the Russian president asked if A. Lukashenko would reach understanding with his political rivals.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY VS. ELECTORATE

According to the polling data, overwhelming majority of the electorate (four out of five) think that life in the country either has aggravated or hasn’t changed over A. Lukashenko’s latest cadence (See Table 1). This is why most of them cast their votes for A. Lukashenko.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: MYTHS OR REALITY

According to polling results, about 90% of registered voters (92.3% as per the Central Election Commission) took part in the voting. This is more than the number of those who voted at the parliamentary election and at the referendum of October of 2006 (90.3% according to the Central Election Commission, and 87.3% according to the data of independent Gallup’s Institute.) About 25.7% of respondents voted ahead of term on March 14-18, which is again less than according to Election Commission’s data (31.1%); and every sixth of them admitted that he/she “was pressed to vote ahead of term.” The number of those who voted against all or who spoilt ballots is almost the same as announced by the Central Election Commission. However, similarity of official and real results of the presidential election ends up right there.

NATIONAL POLL 03’06

1. Title of the study: Strengthening pro-“wide Europe” attitudes in Belarus”
2. Topics of thematic coverage: political, social and economic factors of development of Belarusian society, integration with Europe
3. The aim: to study the most important facilitators and obstacles of development of Belarusian society, to support Belarusian democratic forces for social transformations
4. Descriptors: market, economic attitudes, socio-political positions and attitudes, integration, free and democratic election, electoral behavior, opposition, political preferences, political parties, mass media
5. Comparability: most important questions were replicated
6. Geographical area: Belarus-national
7. Source of information: iiseps@iiseps.org
8. Fieldwork dates: 2006, March – April
9. Population sampled: 18+ years old residents of Belarus who are not currently in hospital, jail, military service
10. Sampling: clustered random
11. Sample size: 1496 respondents
12. Mode of interviews: face-to-face interview
13. Control: selective control of interviewers
14. Related publications: more then 10 publications in mass media