Monthly Archive: February 2006

RESULTS OF THE NATION OPINION POLL CONDUCTED IN FEBRUARY OF 2006

(1430 persons interviewed, margin of error does not exceed 0.03)   1. What problems are the most topical for you when it comes to taking decision in favor of a presidential candidate? (more than one answer is possible) Variant of answer % General standard of living 44.2 Rise in prices 31.8 Improvement of healthcare 24.8 …

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BULLETINS INFOFOCUS № 2

E-bulletin of IISEPS Center for Documentation, N 2, 2006 (only Russian) Content: Introduction Theme of the month: Beginning of Election Campaign: What Effect Messages of Candidates Make? Person and organization of the month: Head of Central Election Commission L. Ermoshina: Political Puppet or Independent Figure Document of the month: Political Amendments into Criminal Code: Norm …

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GEOPOLITICAL COMPASS OF ELECTION

As the opinion poll showed, the Belarusian society still greatly cherishes Pro-Russian sympathies and attitudes. Asked “What variant of Russia-Belarus relations is the best you think?”, 45.5% of respondents said “good neighborly relations of two independent states”, 39.2% – “union of independent states” and 13.6% – “integration into a single state.” Asked “If a referendum on Russia-Belarus integration takes place tomorrow in Belarus, how would you vote?”

VOTERS CLAIM: CANDIDATES HAVE UNEQUAL ACCESS TO STATE-RUN MASS MEDIA

Before presidential candidates were allowed to address population from TV and radio, independent sociologists conducted an opinion poll among Belarusian citizens on the following question: “Do you think presidential candidates have the same degree of access to the state-run mass media as A. Lukashenko?”

HOW DO THEY LIVE IN BELARUS?

Belarusian state-run mass media regularly report that due to ‘the right choice of economic course,’ which the authorities are not going to change, common Belarusians have decent incomes which ensure their worthy living, especially as compared to the countries of the former USSR. Is this true? Let’s look closer into this.

THREE “FOR,” TWO “AGAINST”?

As the data in Table 1 shows, 58.5% of respondents think that the country goes in the right direction. Twofold less respondents (28.1%) think in the opposite. The dynamics of answers reveals that the number of the first has increased 2.7-fold over the past three years and the number of the second has dropped down more than twofold (55.6%). Also, there is a tendency to decrease in the number of those who found it difficult to answer or gave no answer to this question. In other words, the number of convinced supporters of the current course is getting progressively higher in Belarus.

THOSE WHO ARE NOT SATISFIED WITH THE QUALITY OF LIFE SUPPORT THE DEMOCRATS

According to Table 1, population is in general very positive about dynamics of its welfare. For the past three years, the number of those who think that their welfare improved during the previous three months has increased 3.6-fold (from 6.5% to 23.5%) and the number of those who think that it aggravated has dropped down 2.9-fold (from 41.6% to 14.2%). Although the number of those who think that their welfare didn’t change has increased by 10 points, general distribution of answers points out to substantial improvement of the situation in general. What’s more, this sharp increase in welfare has been registered for the past year which points out to advance preparation of the authorities to the forthcoming election.

JUSTICE, WHAT IS THIS?

Different people read differently into this concept. At the same time, there is tacit consent in the society about what is fair and what is not. According to the February opinion poll, 54.9% of respondents think that the presidential election in Belarus will be free and fair while 32.1% – almost a third – stick to the opposite viewpoint.

EXTREME METHOD OF SOLVING EVERYDAY PROBLEMS

Past few years have showed that Belarusians more and more often go on hunger strikes as the last means of fight for their rights; they more and more often go on regular strikes as well. All this points out to increase of social tension in the society. However, these are single instances which still attract attention, especially as regards hunger strikes.

WHOSE SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROGRAM IS MORE ATTRACTIVE?

According to Table 1, the most topical among the problems determining the electoral choice of the Belarusians are still socio-economic problems like general quality of living (44.2% of respondents), rising prices (31.8%), healthcare (24.8%) and employment (23.1%). Any other problem, including democratization and country’s independence, corruptibility, crime, let alone freedom of consciousness is less acute for Belarusians. Therefore, it is possible to assume that a candidate able, in the opinion of population, to provide the best socio-economic conditions has the greatest chances to be elected the president.