Monthly Archive: December 2002

As we have already mentioned, in December, as compared to April 2002, integration moods in the Belarusian socium reduced considerably. In our opinion, this phenomenon can be explained by the events which took place in August-September between our countries and the heads of state. It is very interesting which groups of voters contributed to the process? Table 1 provides certain answers to the question. The attitude towards the unification of Russia and Belarus is considered depending on attitude to A. Lukashenko.

As Table 1 shows, today 54% of the voters believe that our country develops in a wrong direction. The number of those who think in the opposite is 2fold lower. A year ago – right after the presidential election – the groups were almost equal in number. It seems that the expectations of the electorate have not come true, the president could not or has not wanted to fulfil his election promises, and even official statistics prove it. So, a real monthly wage (taking into account the inflation rate) has dropped by more than 10% in January-November 2002.

(Русский) Результаты исследования показывают, что за последние три года на фронте частного предпринимательства особых изменений не произошло. Как можно видеть из табл. 1, немногим более половины взрослых белорусов никогда не участвовали и в дальнейшем не собираются участвовать в частном бизнесе. Несколько менее половины – принимают различное участие в частном предпринимательстве или хотели бы это делать (желающих участвовать, конечно, примерно в 2.5 раза больше, чем тех, кто этим занимается реально). Таким образом, сторонников и противников частного предпринимательства последние три года в стране примерно поровну. Пять лет назад на одного сторонника предпринимательства приходилось двое противников.

It is no secret that independent Belarus has never been cut off from the Russian information space. Belarusian readers and TV audience have got accustomed to such situation to which a low quality of domestic media-products, especially state-run electronic media also contributed. Not surprisingly, today Russian televisions remains the main source of information for Belarusians (See Table 1).

Today the issue of the third presidential term for A. Lukashenko can be compared to a time-bomb. All people know it is planted (there is a constitutional norm which does not allow to be elected the president for more than two consecutive times) and sooner or later it must blow up (practically all policymakers are certain: there are few chances that in the current situation A. Lukashenko will voluntarily quit). Differences in estimations of the situation limit only to technical questions – when and how the project “the third term” will be realized.

As the survey findings show, during the last three-four years integration moods have gradually grown in the Belarusian society, and in the first half of 2002 they reached its apogee. But after V. Putin’s summer attempt to clear up the Belarus-Russian relations to what A. Lukashenko reacted with open irritation, the growth was replaced by a noticeable cooling of “unionist” moods among officials and then in the whole socium. Today the ratio of supporters of Belarus’ independence and those who speak out for the unification with Russia is 3.4:1, whereas nine months ago it was only 1.9:1 (See Table 1).

As Table 1 reveals, the voters feel almost no confidence in most state and public institutions. Only in the first four cases the number of those who trust them is higher than the number of those who distrust them. Orthodox Church tops the list leaving other institutions far behind. Clearly, 72.6% of the adult population consider themselves supporters of the Orthodox denomination. The second place on the basis of index of trust, which takes into account the number of those who trust and distrust, is given to independent research centers beating the army. Thus, the traditional Slavic triad of trust “God, tsar and military commander” is broken: if Church and Army are placed among the top three, the president takes only the 9thplace, lagging behind research centers, mass media, unions of entrepreneurs and the Constitutional Court.

A little more than two months is left before the election to local Councils. Being the first serious political campaign after the 2001 presidential election, it will become a barometer of public moods, a large-scale examination of leading political forces in the country an in a sense will shed light on plans and intentions of the authority. As for the interest of Belarusian voters in local elections, the following fact proves its significant growth. Over the last three months the number of those who know when the voting is to take place has jumped from 20% to 37.5%. Besides, as we see from Table 1, today about two thirds of the respondents, i.e. at the initial stage of the election campaign, say they are ready to cast votes for this or that candidate.

As Table 1 reveals, the voters feel almost no confidence in most state and public institutions. Only in the first four cases the number of those who trust them is higher than the number of those who distrust them. Orthodox Church tops the list leaving other institutions far behind. Clearly, 72.6% of the adult population consider themselves supporters of the Orthodox denomination. The second place on the basis of index of trust, which takes into account the number of those who trust and distrust, is given to independent research centers beating the army. Thus, the traditional Slavic triad of trust “God, tsar and military commander” is broken: if Church and Army are placed among

A little more than two months is left before the election to local Councils. Being the first serious political campaign after the 2001 presidential election, it will become a barometer of public moods, a large-scale examination of leading political forces in the country an in a sense will shed light on plans and intentions of the authority. As for the interest of Belarusian voters in local elections, the following fact proves its significant growth. Over the last three months the number of those who know when the voting is to take place has jumped from 20% to 37.5%. Besides, as we see from Table 1, today about two thirds of the respondents, i.e. at the initial stage of the election campaign, say they are ready to cast votes for this or that candidate.