Monthly Archive: February 2001

NATIONAL POLL 02’01

1. Title of the study: Belarus: prospects in the XXI century”.
2. Topics of thematic coverage: political, social and economic factors of transformations of Belarusian society, preparation to presidential elections.
3. The aim: to study the most important facilitators and obstacles of development of Belarusian society, to support Belarusian democratic forces for social transformations
4. Descriptors: market, economic attitudes, socio-political positions and attitudes, integration, free and democratic election, electoral behavior, opposition, political preferences, political parties, mass media
5. Comparability: most important questions were replicated
6. Geographical area: Belarus-national
7. Principal investigator: IISEPS
8. Polling organization: IISEPS, P.O.B. 219, Minsk, 220030, Belarus, e-mail: iiseps@iiseps.org
9. Fieldwork dates: 2001, February-March
10. Population sampled: 18+ years old residents of Belarus who are not currently in hospital, jail, military service
11. Sampling: clustered random
12. Sample size: 1489 respondents
13. Mode of interviews: face-to-face interview
14. Interviewers: part-time and university students
15. Control: selective control of interviewers
16. Related publications: more then 10 publications in mass media
17. Availability of the original data sets: contact with IISEPS
18. Source of information: IISEPS

 

MASS MEDIA AND THINK TANKS – THE MOST IMPORTANT PARTICIPANTS OF SOCIAL-POLITICAL PROCESS IN BELARUS

Results of the future presidential election and further development of social-political process in many respects are defined by people’s readiness to openly express their political views. Belarusian authorities constantly repeat that there are no obstacles for that, the opposition always underscores the atmosphere of fear, which has been formed in the country under the rule of A. Lukashenko. To make the situation clear, for the first time we asked our respondents a direct question. (see Table 1).

SUPPORT OF INTEGRATION DOES NOT MEAN WEST AVERSION

As one could see from Table 1, over the last two years the number of those who would vote for unification of Russia and Belarus at a possible referendum has increased by 17%. At the same time, the number of those who would vote against it has dropped by 14%. Naturally, one can say the question is incorrect. But, first, if there is such referendum, undoubtedly, the question would be no less intricate and ambiguous. Second, negative dynamics is seen even when questions about relations with Russia are formulated in a more correct way (see Table 2).

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHO WILL BE THE NEW PRESIDENT OF BELARUS

As we could see from Table 1, even today the majority of adult population (76.1%) are intended of taking an active part in the upcoming presidential election. We shall remind that only 60% of voters intended (and then did vote!) of participating in the past parliamentary election. Such rise in people’s desire to take part in the next election could be explained not only by the fact that in the eyes of electorate presidential election seems more important, but also by dissatisfaction of many citizens with results of A. Lukashenko’s individual rule, and who hope to replace him at the upcoming election.